Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 5, 2003

I don't know if I can afford HDTV on a policeman's salary.

It's now April, and while there have been just about three $100 million films, the box office now more or less goes through the motions until the arrival of the summer movie season and X2. There's still some quality this month, and those films will be rewarded with big bucks. Three films with over $10 million on their first weekend is the right way to start.

Phone Booth

An estimated $5.2 million Friday is a decent enough start for the Colin Farrell pic. The Recruit, the first of the 172 films Farrell has appeared in so far this year, had a $5.4 million first day, and that movie had Al Pacino as the main draw. That release also coincided with the Columbia disaster, and likely hurt its final weekend multiplier. Phone Booth should see a promising 3.2 weekend multiplier for a weekend total of $16.6 million.

A Man Apart

Vin Diesel's A Man Apart atook in an estimated $4.1 million on Friday. The number proves that Vin isn't an instant mega draw because of xXx, but at least this isn't another Knockaround Guys. The Vin Fan Club probably showed up for this one opening night, so a weekend total of $11.1 million should do it. Sorry.

What A Girl Wants

She wants a better opening number than the estimated $3.4 million it earned Friday, for starters. Actually, this isn't all bad, as it's quite likely to have the highest multiplier among the openers this weekend, as well as the best potential for decent legs. What A Girl Wants should pull in around $12 million for the weekend.

Dysfunktional Family

And the stand-up comedy concert film returns to its rightful place as a box office black hole. A $370,000 Friday estimate, even in only 602 theaters, is a massive flop any way you slice it. It'll finish with $1 million for the weekend if it's lucky, far removed from the top ten.

Notable Holdovers

It's not another Bringing Down The House, but Head of State falls a could've-been-worse 37.8% from last Friday, and looks to be down 35% for the weekend.

The news isn't as good for last week's two openers, but it's not terribly surprising, either. The Core drops 54.7% from last Friday and Basic plunges 57.5%. Both will remain down over 50% when the weekend totals come in. Good riddance.

Check back tomorrow for the full weekend estimates and analysis.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
Phone Booth
16.6
2
What a Girl Wants
12.0
3
A Man Apart
11.1
4
Head of State
8.7
5
Bringing Down the House
8.2
6
The Core
5.4
7
Chicago
5.1
8
Basic
4.9
9
Agent Cody Banks
3.4
10
Dreamcatcher
2.6

View other columns by Tim Briody

     

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