Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 10, 2003

Methos from Highlander is a mutant?

Aren't we all really just biding our time until The Matrix Reloaded? Thursday can't get here fast enough. But let's get on with the one new release this weekend.

Daddy Day Care

An estimated $7.7 million Friday for Daddy Day Care is a decent start (and nearly double the total gross of The Adventures of Pluto Nash). A family friendly weekend multiplier of 3.35 gives Daddy Day Care $25.8 million for the weekend, and if the film holds up over the next few weeks, it stands a good chance of out-grossing all three Eddie Murphy bombs released in 2002 combined.

Notable Holdovers

X2: X-Men United plunges 62.0% from last Friday. It's in no danger of giving up the number one spot this weekend, nor is there any doubt of the sequel surpassing the $157 million gross of X-Men, but the large decline means it's pretty much roadkill with the rest of the top ten when Matrix Reloaded hits theaters next week.

X-Men had a Friday-to-Friday decline of 65.6%, which translated into a second weekend drop of 57%. So, there's a slight improvement with the sequel, which is pretty good given the larger number. Using this info, we'll give X2 a total weekend drop of 53.6%, so Wolverine and company end up with $39.7 million, which puts X2 just under $150 million after 10 days.

Oh, and Lizzie McGuire falls 61.7%, but she should be a little bit more resilient than the mutants over the rest of the weekend. Call it $8 million for the weekend.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
X2: X-Men United
39.7
2
Daddy Day Care
25.8
3
The Lizzie McGuire Movie
8.0
4
Identity
6.1
5
Anger Management
5.1
6
Holes
4.7
7
A Mighty Wind
3.2
8
Bend It Like Beckham
1.9
9
Malibu's Most Wanted
1.8
10
Confidence
1.3

View other columns by Tim Briody

     

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