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Friday Numbers AnalysisBy Tim BriodyJune 7, 2003
The revolving door at the top of the box office continues as this weekend provides definitive proof that the lack of Vin Diesel and a stupid title won't keep people away from a movie.
2 Fast 2 FuriousThe only new offering this week, 2 Fast 2 Furious made an estimated $20.5 million Friday, which beats the first film's $14.7 million Friday number, not unusual for a sequel.Based on recent history, 2 Fast 2 Furious isn't likely to end up with a great multiplier. The most obvious comparison, The Fast and the Furious, had a 2.72 internal multiplier en route to a $40 million weekend. Other comparisons of note:
xXx - 2.57 Given this info, the best range for 2 Fast 2 Furious is in the 2.6-2.7 range. We'll split that right down the middle and give it a 2.65 weekend multiplier, giving the film a decent $54.3 million for the weekend.
Finding NemoDown 40.3% from last Friday, which is a bit higher than expected, Finding Nemo becomes the latest summer blockbuster that spends just one week at the top of the box office with an estimated $12.3 million on Friday. There are two consolations here. First, it passes $100 million in its eighth day of release, which is still impressive even in these days of The Matrix. Second, it will recover nicely over the rest of the weekend, and end up with an overall decline in the lower 30% range. Look for Nemo to finish the weekend with around $46 million.
Notable HoldoversOff just 36.1% from last Friday, The Italian Job has a chance of being one of the sleeper hits of the summer, if it can keep it up. It should end up down 30% for the weekend.
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