Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

August 30, 2003

Worst Halloween Costume Ever.

Jeepers Creepers 2

The sequel to one of the few films to actually break out over the box office dead zone that is Labor Day weekend earned a pretty decent $5.2 million Friday, which is ahead of the $4.3 million the original made its first Friday. Smart money here says that this one is more front-loaded and won't quite make the 3.6 multiplier Jeepers Creepers had over the four-day weekend. Give it $13.5 million for the three-day weekend, and a 3.3 multiplier and $17.4 million for four days, which breaks the Labor Day opening record set two years ago by Jeepers Creepers.

Notable Holdovers

As is the case with this holiday weekend, older films in the marketplace either have a negligible decline (or even a small gain) from last weekend, or collapse completely.

In the first category, we have films that have already shown their legginess during the month of August, such as Pirates of the Caribbean, Freaky Friday and Seabiscuit. Each of these films will see drops of under 10% for the four-day weekend.

In the latter category, we have two of last week's openers, The Medallion and My Boss's Daughter, as well as last week's champ, Freddy vs. Jason. Cannibalized by a new horror entry into theaters, the battle of the horror heavyweights will fall from first to sixth at best as it should decline around 50% even over the four-day weekend.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
Jeepers Creepers 2
13.5
2
Freaky Friday
7.3
3
S.W.A.T.
6.8
4
Open Range
6.7
5
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
6.5
6
Freddy vs. Jason
5.4
7
Seabiscuit
5.0
8
The Medallion
4.0
9
Uptown Girls
3.5
10
American Wedding
3.3

View other columns by Tim Briody

     

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