Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 4, 2003

You were in High Fidelity?  No way, me too!

The School of Rock

Jack Black's The School of Rock earned an estimated $6 million on Friday. It will fall short of the $23.2 Shallow Hal earned in its first weekend back in 2001, but that had the Farrelly Brothers behind it and co-star Gwyneth Paltrow didn't hurt, either. If it can build on the impressive word-of-mouth, the family comedy (who knew?) could enjoy a decent run through October. With nothing else (except Secondhand Lions) for parents to drag their kids to, School of Rock could see a decent internal multiplier. Give it an even 3.0 and about an $18 milion weekend.

Out of Time

Denzel Washington's cop thriller Out of Time scored an estimated $5.3 million Friday, and the adult-skewing nature of the film means it'll be a closer race for the top spot at the box office than we've seen in weeks. Even with a 3.1 multiplier and a $16.4 million weekend, School of Rock will prevail.

Notable Holdovers

The Rundown plunges 54% from last Friday (which is a darned shame). An overall weekend decline of around 50% is in store for The Rock's latest vehicle.

Diane Lane's Under the Tuscan Sun behaves like a good chick flick should, as it falls just 22.1% from last Friday, en route to a leggy run after a second weekend decline of under 20%.

The wonderful Lost in Translation added a few hundred more screens, but that only helped the film improve 22.4% off last Friday. This will put it in the middle ranks of the top ten this weekend, but with a per screen average like that, it may not be the Oscar contender Focus Features is hoping for.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
School of Rock
18
2
Out of Time
16.4
3
The Rundown
9.2
4
Under the Tuscan Sun
7.7
5
Secondhand Lions
5.4
6
Underworld
4.8
7
Lost in Translation
4.5
8
The Fighting Temptations
3.2
9
Once Upon a Time in Mexico
2.6
10
Cold Creek Manor
2.3

View other columns by Tim Briody

     

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