Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 11, 2003

Bring on the hundreds of Agent Smiths!

Kill Bill: Volume 1

Quentin Tarantino's delightfully bloody Kill Bill: Volume 1 got off to a teriffic start, earning an estimated $8.1 million Friday. While Pulp Fiction legged it out to over $100 million after a slew of Oscar nominations, Jackie Brown topped out at $39.6 million after opening to $9 million over Christmas in 1997.

The downside to this solid first-day number is that the six year gap between Jackie Brown and the first film in the Kill Bill series left a lot of QT fans salivating for something new from the writer/director. Thus, the Tarantino fanboys likely turned out opening night, which leaves the rest of the weekend for a film that's honestly not very commercial to put up not very commercial numbers. Give it a 2.55 internal multiplier and a still-very-impressive $20.4 million start.

Intolerable Cruelty

The Coen brothers' attempt at a screwball comedy earned a pretty-good $4.1 million Friday. This is the widest opening weekend for a Joel and Ethan Coen film ever, so comparisons are a bit skewed. The previous holder of that title was 1998's The Big Lebowski, which opened to $5.5 million on 1,207 screens. Its adult themes and the marquee names of George Clooney and Catherine Zeta-Jones will blow that number away, and it should be a matter of weeks before Intolerable Cruelty challenges O Brother, Where Art Thou? as the Coens' top grossing film ever. A 3.1 multiplier gives it $12.7 million for the weekend.

Good Boy!

On another weekend, this would have been the quirkiest release hands down. But with not much else out there going for the younger kids, Good Boy! managed an estimated $3.2 million Friday. Talking dogs always seems to bring out the families, so Good Boy! will give three of the four new releases over $10 million as it should eke over that mark with around $10.1 million.

The House of the Dead

A could've-been-worse $1.8 million greeted Artisan's House of the Dead on its opening night. That's about all the good news in store, though, as its weekend total should be about $4.7 million and it'll be a non-factor next weekend.

Notable Holdovers

School of Rock falls just 23.8% from the previous Friday. This is great news for the Jack Black family comedy, as it does look like a good run through the fall is ensured. Its overall weekend decline should only be around 20%.

Out of Time is just that, with a 50.8% decline from last Friday. The rest of the weekend will bring around a 45% decline, but repeated 50% drops are in its future.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
Kill Bill Volume 1
20.4
2
School of Rock
15.7
3
Intolerable Cruelty
12.7
4
Good Boy!
10.1
5
Out of Time
7.3
6
Under the Tuscan Sun
4.9
7
House of the Dead
4.7
8
The Rundown
4.6
9
Secondhand Lions
3.2
10
Lost in Translation
2.8

View other columns by Tim Briody

     

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