Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
May 1, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
David Mumpower: Disturbia opened the weekend with a less-than-stellar winning total of $9.1 million. Is this the calm before next weekend's box office storm? Should Disturbia still feel good about winning three straight weekends?
Tim Briody: It's only there because all the new releases this weekend pretty much flopped, but absolutely. If you had put money on Disturbia topping the box office for three weekends, you would be a very rich person.
Reagen Sulewski: In the sense that an amateur boxer could feel proud of beating up a throng of fifth-graders.
Kim Hollis: It's clearly the calm before an impending storm. May is going to be huge. Audiences can sense when dreck is being unleashed in their direction and they tend to stay away.
Joel Corcoran: I think the people behind Disturbia should feel very good about the winning streak. It's a solid performer. Not quite a "hit," but a nice revenue-maker.
David Mumpower: I agree with Tim. Disturbia won with a lousy total, but three straight weekends at #1 is still a strong selling point for the post-theatrical phase.
Joel Corcoran: And fifth-graders can be pretty tough, you know ...
Reagen Sulewski: Studios didn't even really try this April. Most of these films could have had the ad tag "Only In Theatres ...by Contractual Obligation".
Tim Briody: With all the big releases coming within a week or two of each other, it's conceivable that there is no other three-week champ for the rest of the year.
Justin Chatwin who?
David Mumpower: Let's talk openers. In hindsight, wasn't it a bad idea to name a movie The Invisible? Didn't that all but guarantee a box office disappointment of $7.6 million?
Kim Hollis: I think all three movies were extremely poorly named this weekend.
Joel Corcoran: Is that the title of a movie? Or a collective description of all the openers?
Reagen Sulewski: I think people took a look at this one and said "what's a Jason Chatwin?" In some respects it had a bit in common with Disturbia, but that could also be a reason for its downfall.
David Mumpower: I thought the trailer for this looked intriguing, but the TV commercials weren't even trying.
Tim Briody: Look! It's like the Sixth Sense, except he *knows* he's dead!
Joel Corcoran: It looked too much like a spin-off where Chatwin is playing the same kid as in War of the Worlds.
Reagen Sulewski: Also, I think we're all sick of that blue-grey color scheme for movies. It just appears instantly dated.
David Mumpower: What's depressing about The Invisible is that it's what passes for a success new release this weekend.
Tim Briody: Are we even qualifying it as a success?
Reagen Sulewski: I think the best thing you can say about it is that it was probably cheap.
Tim Briody: You dropped something on the floor, David, it appears to be the bar that measures these things.
David Mumpower: Well, it's the largest opening of Chatwin's career as a lead actor. So, it's a personal success!
Joel Corcoran: The Invisible did have a pretty decent per-theater average of just over $3,700, though. I wouldn't call that looking on the bright side, but it's at least a dim reflection of the bright side.
Reagen Sulewski: Marginally beating out Hot Fuzz's second week average! A tremendous result!
David Mumpower: I guess what we are really saying is that invisibility is not a big deal to us.
Joel Corcoran: What were we talking about again?
David Mumpower: Frodo's ring.
Stunningly, Next did not have long lines at movie theaters
David Mumpower: Not to be outdone in mediocrity, Next opened to $7.2 million with a per-location average of $2,642. Is Nicolas Cage the most inconsistent movie opener in the industry?
Tim Briody: Stating the obvious, the title is clearly what Cage shouted out as soon as filming wrapped and his paycheck cleared.
Joel Corcoran: I would say that Nic Cage currently stands as the most inconsistent movie opener (if we look at the past few years).
Kim Hollis: Actually, he's fairly consistent if you throw out Ghost Rider and National Treasure. The rest of his stuff is pretty much solidly in that range.
Reagen Sulewski: In fairness to Cage, if I were him I'd be looking at the openings of Ghost Rider and Next and wondering what the hell the difference was. Both looked equally craptastic.
David Mumpower: He had a flaming skull in Ghost Rider as opposed to borrowing Tom Hanks' Da Vinci 'do for Next.
Reagen Sulewski: It's like the Simpsons episode where Sideshow Bob beat out Mayor Quimby. "I can't believe one convicted felon got so many votes and another got so few."
Joel Corcoran: I liked this movie better when Denzel Washington was the star, anyway.
Kim Hollis: In all seriousness, who in Hollywood these days has the discussion, "I need a big star for my film. Let's call...Nic Cage!"
Reagen Sulewski: This is why actors form their own movie companies. It's a guaranteed employment scheme.
David Mumpower: Uwe Boll.
Had you ever heard of The Condemned before this discussion? We hadn't either.
David Mumpower: The last victim this weekend is the again-accurately titled The Condemned. The WWE Productions release earned $4.0 million with a per-location average of $1,732. Where is the love for Stone Cold Steve Austin?
Tim Briody: Steve Austin as an action star is a good idea four years too late.
Reagen Sulewski: Not that The Marine or See No Evil did that great, but I'm surprised that this did so much worse.
Joel Corcoran: Same with me, Reagen. I was actually surprised it did so poorly.
David Mumpower: That's my thought as well, Reagen. As was pointed out in the Weekend Wrap-Up, the WWE has lost 50% in per-location average after two movies. That's rejection in its purest form.
Kim Hollis: I honestly didn't even know Stone Cold had a movie until a couple of weeks ago when a commercial for it came on. I promptly forgot about it.
Reagen Sulewski: And it's not like Vinnie Jones is a nobody. I think it got what it deserved, but I guess what I'm saying is that I'm surprised that movie goers showed some taste.
Joel Corcoran: It struck me as Running Man meets Survivor, so maybe adding Richard Dawson to the cast would've helped.
David Mumpower: These days, you would have to cast Louie Anderson instead.
Tim Briody: Or Al from Home Improvement.
Reagen Sulewski: I always knew he was evil.
Unlike Next, we suspect there *will* be lines for one of this weekend's openers
David Mumpower: Okay, now that we have talked about the stuff everyone realizes was pointless this weekend, let's get to it. What is your opening weekend as well as your final box office expectation for Spider-Man 3? Reagen obviously won't be answering.
Reagen Sulewski: My gut feeling at the moment is that it does not break the all-time record opening.
Kim Hollis: $117 million. $360 million.
Tim Briody: It will probably change a dozen times between now and Friday, but something like $110 million opening and $360 million final. Spider-Man 2 finished with $30 million less than the first one, remember.
Joel Corcoran: I'm going out on a limb. I think Spider-Man 3 will open at $127.5 million with a final domestic box office of $370 million.
David Mumpower: I'm going with $114 million and $385 million. I know that a lot of people have jumped to the conclusion that Spider-Man 3 has to beat Pirates of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, but I am simply not feeling the same amount of buzz for this.
Tim Briody: Dead Man's Chest's number is simply too high. I have a feeling that stands for while, at least through 2007 even with all the heavy hitters due.
Joel Corcoran: I'm not feeling the same buzz either, David. But I do get a sense that a lot of people are looking forward to another "movie event," like 300.
David Mumpower: That's the one huge positive Spider-Man 3 has going for it. Look at what weaker films have done thus far in 2007. Now imagine what a tentpole release is capable of accomplishing.