May 2007 Forecast
By Marty Doskins
May 1, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
And now on to my top ten for May 2007.
1. Spider-Man 3
The first of our three big films for May has been the talk of the rumor mills since the second film was released. Would the stars be back? Which villain would Spidey be facing this time? Well, all the rumors and gossip can now stop since the film is here. The stars are back, as well as director Sam Raimi. Your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man is facing three (yes, three) villains this time around. And everything points toward some record-breaking numbers for this film. This comic book film has gone well beyond the comic book readers as an audience. Since Spider-Man was at least a somewhat household name before the first film was released five years ago, it helped get others to come see what the talk was all about. And this audience has been hooked ever since.
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Our second sequel should have a pretty big battle with Spider-Man 3 to see which one will be the big box office winner for 2007. Again, it appears that having the cast and crew all back helps make for a successful and anticipated sequel. Of course, there are some new additions and twists to keep things fresh. Our three main stars, (Johnny Depp, Keira Knightley, and Orlando Bloom), are hotter than ever. Pirate fever is sweeping the country (but I doubt that'll bring back the "puffy shirt").
3. Shrek the Third
For our third sequel, the original Shrek made almost $470 million worldwide. Shrek 2 hauled in over $900 million world wide – an amazing feat. Will Shrek the Third continue to build on this previous success? I think it will, but will it be able to become only the fourth film in history to reach the magic $1 BILLION mark? That's still to early to say. But as with our other two big films, this one has all the makings of a blockbuster. The characters, as well as their voice talent, have become very popular with a wide audience. This movie series isn't just for kids. Adults have rediscovered their love for animated films. The writing has become more sophisticated and the animation process has advanced as well. If this were just a kids' film aimed at kids and their parents, there would be very little chance for the major success this film will achieve.
4. 28 Weeks Later
Our last sequel for the month is the follow-up to an original film that has developed quite a cult following. It looks like the studio decided that a sequel was warranted and actually put some money behind this production. There are a lot more special effects used and they are being prominently featured in the trailers and commercials that are being shown. While the original audiences know about the first film and are interested in going to this one, the studio is trying to grab those that don't know anything about 28 Days Later. They have to have some flashy hype to grab their attention. I think they've done a decent job and it will make it well worth the studio's added investment.
5. Georgia Rule
I think this film will grab some interest outside of the typical "chick flick" audience. It doesn't seem to be overly pushy as that type of film so there are some guys out there that won't be turned off by it. However, I think that the "chick flick" audience will have to do the bulk of the revenue load for this movie. While the stars of the film are strong (Jane Fonda, Felicity Huffman, and Lindsay Lohan), I don't think any one or a combination will help drag in that many more viewers. Marketing will play a key role in the amount of money coming in.
6. Lucky You
Here's our latest try at finding the perfect romantic comedy couple – Drew Barrymore and Eric Bana. I think the romcom aspect of this film is what will save it. As far as the stars are concerned, most people are familiar with Drew Barrymore, but not so much for Bana. This is a pretty competitive month so I'm not sure how much they would've moved up if this had been Hugh Grant instead of Eric Bana. But the studio should be pleased with the results they will show.
7. Delta Farce
While the movie's poster looks a lot like Full Metal Jacket, this is anything but. The Blue Collar Comedy guys take over the big screen. These gentlemen have developed a big following with their comedy tours and TV show. It should continue. I'm not sure how much added interest we'll see so that's why this shows up so low on the list.
8. Bug
Not too convinced with this one. Maybe Ashley Judd will save it from oblivion.
9. The Ex
Here's another romantic comedy with TV star Zach Braff and Amanda Peet teaming up as the featured couple. I think Braff has gained a good sized following with his role on Scrubs. He also has some fans from one of his previous film, Garden State. Romantic comedies do well in the summer so I'm not convinced about my ranking, but there hasn't been as much of a push with Braff's films in the past.
10. Home of the Brave
As with most news headlines of the times, there are movies made either about actual events or just based on various aspects of truth weaved into a movie screenplay. This one is more of the latter. People fighting in Iraq against some terrorists and stories of their families left behind form the basis for this movie. Unless there's a big push from the studio on this one, this film will easily fall by the wayside and onto the home video market.
Michael Bentley's May 2007 Forecast