Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
May 7, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
David Mumpower: This weekend, Spider-Man 3 became the largest domestic opener of all-time, earning an estimated $148.0 million. What superlatives would you like to throw at Sony and Team Raimi for this result?
Reagen Sulewski: I guess there are way, way, way more Venom fans out there than I thought possible.
Tim Briody: "Wow", is the only thing that comes to mind, really.
David Mumpower: Wow? Isn't that a bit obvious, Tim?
Kim Hollis: It's dollarific! Cashtastic!
Tim Briody: What can I say? I'm at a loss, since I think even the most optimistic forecast thought it wouldn't top Dead Man's Chest.
Joel Corcoran: It didn't deserve to top Dead Man's Chest either. This movie was the worst comic-related film since Fantastic Four. The only reason it's better than Batman and Robin is because of special effects...and a lack of neoprene suits with nipples.
Kim Hollis: Really, as far as people who I'm happy to see rolling in money, Sam Raimi is right near the top of the list.
Joel Corcoran: Me, too, Kim. Though I think the praise Sony has been heaping at his feet is a little over the top. Amy Pascal, the co-chair of Sony Pictures, called him a "genius." He's great, but I think Ms. Pascal has been hanging out with Uwe Boll too much. The real geniuses behind Spider-Man 3 are the promoters, advertisers, and marketers.
David Mumpower: What strikes me about all of this is how relieved Sony has to be after an incredibly difficult six month period since the failed release of the Playstation 3. If ever a corporation needed some good news, it's them. Spider-Man 3's opening weekend is the living, breathing definition of good news.
Reagen Sulewski: And as the reviews started rolling again, it almost looked as if they had whiffed on yet another sure thing. Comic book fans appear to be ignoring reviews this year altogether.
Kim Hollis: They should have had Spider-Man play Dance Dance Revolution on the PS3 for added exposure. I really thought Dead Man's Chest would be one of those records that held for several years. How wrong was I? (And was I ever way low with my prediction last week!)
Tim Briody: We collectively brought the suck on that one.
David Mumpower: Indeed. The largest estimate any of us made was Joel's $127.5 million and even that was lowballing this one by $20 million.
Joel Corcoran: For the record, my estimate was at least 3,275% more accurate than Vice President's estimate for the cost of the Iraq War.
Like Chandler Bing, Spider-Man's wallet is too small for his $50 bills.
David Mumpower: So, which of Spider-Man 3's records do you consider most impressive? Your choices are largest single day total, two of the three largest single day totals, the best opening weekend ever, the $142.3 million difference between it and the second place movie this weekend, or the $375 million it earned worldwide this weekend.
Kim Hollis: I really think the overall weekend total is the most impressive. That's something no one was expecting it to do at all. We could foresee a couple of huge single days (it seemed the very definition of one-day wonder) and great international business. With the totals from last week's top ten at the box office, it was also clear that it was going to blow them away.
David Mumpower: My vote is for the difference between Spider-Man 3 and Disturbia, the second place finisher. I realize that an important aspect of this is the weakness of the box office after Spider-Man 3, but the numbers are still astounding. Dead Man's Chest earned $135.6 million; Spider-Man 3 earned $142.3 million more than the film in second place. For that matter, it earned $122 million more than the rest of the top ten combined. Staggering.
Reagen Sulewski: I think it's the two single day totals. Any old crappy movie (See: X3) can get one of those, but to pull in two of the top single days in one weekend is pretty special.
Tim Briody: I vote for biggest weekend, since as we mentioned, nobody saw that coming. We knew it'd have some impressive single day figures and there was going to be a laughably large range over the #2 movie, but $148.0 million is just nutty.
Joel Corcoran: I have to agree with David. The weekend box office take was stunning, but the numbers David mentioned are just mind-blowing.
David Mumpower: That is what surprises me the most. It hasn't just beaten Dead Man's Chest's record, but it has done so in comfortable fashion. Dead Man's Chest broke a 50-month old record by $20.8 million. I thought that would stand indefinitely. Instead, Spider-Man 3 has turned around and beaten that stunning number by another $12.4 million. The bar has been raised $33 million from Spider-Man's seemingly unbreakable $114.8 million in the past ten months.
Kim Hollis: Bruce Campbell can really pack 'em in.
BOP collectively says mea cupla
David Mumpower: So, ten months ago, we all engaged in a discussion about when the new $135.6 million record would be broken. All of us agreed it would stand for several years to come. Why were we universally wrong on the point?
Kim Hollis: As you mentioned, Pirates broke the previous record by such a significant amount that it seemed a tough pinnacle. And when we consider that there are any number of blockbusters spread through the summer months this year, it felt like audiences would have plenty of chances to go for what they liked most.
David Mumpower: This answer is not complicated. We simply underestimated Spider-Man 3's appeal as the end of a hugely popular saga ten months ago. Heck, we underestimated it just last week. With 11,000 prints - 2,500 more than Dead Man's Chest - Spider-Man 3 had unique marketplace ubiquity, and it capitalized on this.
Joel Corcoran: I also think the film benefited from a demonstrated upswing in the movie market. Ghost Rider took in $45 million it's opening weekend, and 300 brought in almost $71 million. Neither of those movies had the franchise history, star power, or fanbase of Spider-Man 3. I don't know what's causing this upswing. I don't understand why people are going to movies now (over the past six months) when the box office was trending downward over the past few years. But there is some obvious shift going on.
Reagen Sulewski: I'm not sure if it was as much that it was just *how* bad the spring movie season has been. It's been a running theme in my previews the last month or so about just how bad April sucked. Audiences were looking for something, anything, that looked like an event.
Kim Hollis: I think what we really discounted is the fact that Spider-Man 2 was *so* good that audiences were aching to see more of him. He's that relatable character that works for all ages. My biggest shock is that I thought box office behavior had adjusted itself somewhat to the point that people didn't absolutely feel the need to rush out and see these things opening weekend. I guess when it's Spidey, that doesn't hold true.
David Mumpower: I think that's a great point, Kim. It also is something to keep in mind for the eventual release of Spider-Man 4. With many questioning the quality of Spider-Man 3, that type of legacy impact due to quality won't happen next time.
Tim Briody: But that might not bode well for its prospects through the rest of the month, since compared to both Spider-Man 1 & 2, this was not nearly as well recieved.
David Mumpower: Oh, I completely agree on that point, Tim. I wrote the Weekend Wrap-Up for Spider-Man 3 and I vacillated upon the point of how much I should focus on the rest of the month versus this weekend. I have a lot of concerns about Spider-Man 3's holdover after opening weekend.
Kim Hollis: I'm not sure what's going to happen here. Real die-hard movie lovers and comic book fans seem unhappy with it. In general, it seems well-enough liked. Of course, It's probably going to bleed audience on May 18th anyway. Shrek is the clear family choice at that point.
David Mumpower: This is a fascinating grudge match for the Spider-Man franchise against Shrek. No one was talking about the angry, green ogre when Shrek 2 went up against Spider-Man 2 yet the former film crushed the latter one by over $60 million domestically and $120 million worldwide. I guess this proves once and for all that Spidey is an Avenger.
Tim Briody: It's going to bleed massively starting next weekend, I really think Spider-Man 2's $373 million is safe, and I'm more confident in that than in the opening I predicted last week. Of course, if I'm wrong, I'll say so in this space.
Reagen Sulewski: It's got a huge head start on that number though. "Bleeding massively" could still give it one of the top 20 weekends of all time as an encore.
Kim Hollis: Since probably most people who saw Spider-Man 3 this weekend also saw trailers for Shrek 3 and Pirates 3, it's a fascinating symbiotic relationship.
Tim Briody: And I predicted Shrek the Third to be the overall summer winner, anyway.
David Mumpower: That's right. DreamWorks and Disney would never admit it, but a rising tide lifts all boats here. It's that much more free advertising for their tentpoles.
We're taking a mulligan on that one and starting over again.
David Mumpower: So, let's not learn anything from our mistakes. Do you see any film on the schedule from now until the end of 2008 that you believe can/will break Spider-Man 3's opening weekend record of $148.0 million?
Tim Briody: I said last week that Dead Man's Chest record was safe through 2007. My belief system now shattered, I would not be stunned if Shrek the Third or At World's End beat Spider-Man 3.
Joel Corcoran: I think Pirates 3 will break, but not shatter the record. I wasn't thinking that a week ago, but I am now.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think any do, but it's certainly possible for Pirates to approach that mark.
Kim Hollis: "Let's not listen!" No, I really don't think Shrek or Pirates beat it for various reasons. Shrek is because it's a family film (though it is a family film that is likely to have a massive weekend multiplier) and Pirates opens on a holiday weekend, which hurts it some.
David Mumpower: I like Shrek 3's chances more than Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End's. The latter film's reported 170 minute run time will artificially deflate its opening weekend due to fewer exhibitions each day. Shrek 3 strikes me as a $100+ million opener, but I see it as having a better shot of beating Spider-Man 3 over the long haul than in the short term.
Joel Corcoran: I'll be contrarian here - even with the holiday weekend going against it, and the longer running time, At World's End is a juggernaut. If Spider-Man 3 can do $148 million, this film can do $150 million in spite of the forces opposing it.
Lemonade, that cool, refreshing drink...
David Mumpower: When life gives you lemons, you are supposed to make lemonade. For Warner Bros., this means that Lucky You's performance of $2.5 million with a per-venue average of $998 is an opportunity for a lot of lemonade...or, at the very least, a sour taste left in their mouths. What went wrong with Lucky You?
Kim Hollis: Everything? It was always pretty obvious that this was a bust. Curtis Hanson is great, but when Lucky You got delayed and then delayed again and then delayed again (and I think I'm missing an again or two), it was obvious the studio had no faith in it. Offering it up as a sacrificial lamb against Spidey was frankly kind of mean. Poker movies also feel a little bit like they're trying to hard to capture the fad.
David Mumpower: The obvious answer is "everything" as Kim said. It's also not far from the truth. This is one of the worst looking romantic comedies in recent memory. The fact that Curtis Hanson is responsible for it breaks my heart.
Tim Briody: Hmm, I guess I'll go with everything, too. Eric Bana has become box office poison, by the way.
Joel Corcoran: I agree with Tim.
David Mumpower: Between this and Music and Lyrics, Drew Barrymore could use a hit as well. 50 First Dates is her only true hit since 2000.
Kim Hollis: At least she got cover girl on People's Most Beautiful Issue!
David Mumpower: I understand they're photoshopping Kirsten Dunst in her stead now.