Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 9, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Transformers eviscerated the competition this week, earning $152.5 million over the extended holiday period, including $67.6 million over the weekend. What are your thoughts about this performance as well as its impact on summer box office?
Joel Corcoran: Autobots **ing rule.
Reagen Sulewski: Considering the struggle that the other recent "I Love the '80s" film has had in just limping its way to respectability, this is a pretty significant result. There's no reason this had to be a hit - look at that Master of the Universe movie with Dolph Lundgren they made. Of course, He-Man was never as popular as Optimus Prime and the timing is much better now - all the people that grew up on this are ready for some nostalgia, and Transformers are eternally cool to eight-year-olds (who this film is essentially pitched at).
Tim Briody: I didn't have this on my radar at all. Admittedly I tend to shun Michael ("Lights! Camera! Actio-CUT!!") Bay films in general, but I assumed this was a lame attempt at cashing in on the cartoon that was big when I was, like, six. To call it impressive is an understatement.
David Mumpower: We have just experienced one of the best seven day periods in the history of box office, and Transformers was the anchor release during that time frame. There was $336 million worth of revenue for the top ten films over the past seven days, and Michael Bay's movie comprised 45% of that. Studio execs are all looking at the July 4th holiday with new ideas now after the success of this project. It's been used in effectively the same manner as the Thanksgiving holiday has been in the past. The impact from that could be dramatic, but the changing calendar configuration for the July 4th holiday each year complicates the process a great deal. Under any circumstance, Transformers' box office is the best week ever for a non-sequel. What more needs to be said?
Kim Hollis: It always felt like an event film to me, though the Transformers and their ilk were pretty important to pop culture as I was growing up so they felt familiar to me, too. In the end, what it comes down to is this: You dig giant robots. I dig giant robots. We dig giant robots. Chicks dig giant robots.
Nice.
Michael Bentley: It's pretty big. My hats off to all those involved, including Michael Bay - keep in mind that he is coming off a career low in The Island, which was a certified bomb. The bad thing, though, is that with Hollywood and all its originality we will now see a glut of toy-based movies. Go-Bots, anyone? Another attempt at He-Man??
David Mumpower: Penny Arcade comics aside, I don't see Transformers' success being viewed as anything other than an anomaly for lower brow stuff such as Go-Bots. There isn't going to be a G.I. Joe movie any time soon, as an example. I guess that He-Man is a possibility, but I suspect that everyone evaluating this situation understands that Transformers' success is a unique combination of marketable idea (particularly in terms of special effects possibilities), a Steven Spielberg idea and Michael Bay's knack for desirable action sequences.
Jim Van Nest: I gotta hand it to Michael Bay, or rather, Michael Bay's trailer editors. Regardless of the quality of a Bay film, his trailers always kick ass. Don't believe me? Go watch the Pearl Harbor trailer and tell me it isn't brilliant. And we all know what a turd the film was.
Bottom line, the studio/Bay/whoever, advertised the crap out of this thing and it looks awesome. My wife has no love for Transformers, but based on the trailers, it's a must-see for her. THIS is why it went crazy...Michael Bay made a film that looks like good ole fashioned summer-time fun and fanboys and regular folks alike went nuts for it.
I say bully for all of them, and if it is as much fun as it looks, I hope they keep making movies like this. Where the hell is my G-Force movie?!?!?!?
Max Braden: I had to look twice at those numbers, which are confusing because of the headscratching Monday-night release. The three-day weekend $67 million falls into familiar big action summer box office territory. I have trouble believing Transformers was a hit based on being an '80s property. I owned the Megatron toy when I was younger but don't remember much about the show, and that basis had no draw for me to go see the movie. Teenage Mutant Nina Turtles grossed over $135 million in 1990, but the revised TMNT released this year topped out at $54 million. Likewise, both Transformers and Die Hard 4 are both actioners, but Die Hard only opened with half that of Transformer's weekend. I think it was the simple, raw action that pulled viewers in, as well as the younger crowd for Shia LaBeouf vs. the older Bruce Willis (despite Justin Long). I think the number will help prop up upcoming action movies like The Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3. If executives are thinking "mine the '80s for more properties!" then we may see Knight Rider on screens sooner than necessary. Not to mention that it recovers Bay from his own flop with The Island.
It made sixty...150 million dollars. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Kim Hollis: Where do you rank this performance among 2007's list of mega-blockbusters?
Michael Bentley: Ask again after next weekend. I'm curious to see how much it drops without the benefit of a major holiday week.
Jim Van Nest: I have to rank the opening pretty high, if only for the "are you frickin kidding me?" aspect. I never expected it to have a seven-day run like that, and I'd wager few people actually did. I'd say that setting the kind of numbers it did for Tuesday and Wednesday...a traditional weekend opening would have been a pretty impressive figure, especially considering it's a non-sequel that honestly seemed like such a fanboy niche film only six to eight months ago. The widespread appeal of the movie, to me, anyway, is shocking.
David Mumpower: Given that Transformers does not have the benefit of a sequel in any real sense of the world (although Transformers: The Movie did earn about $5.8 million back in 1986), I think that this is the most impressive opening weekend of the year of anything save for Spider-Man 3. 300 would be the only other title in the conversation for me, but the reality is that while it technically opened slightly larger ($70.9 million versus $67.6 million), I have difficulty separating the weekend from the week. Transformers had a six and a half day release, and I think it's counter-intuitive to dismiss what happened prior to the weekend. What it earned this week, $152.5 million, is over $10 million more than 300 managed in its first two weeks. In fact, it's within striking range of Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End's $167.2 million in its first six days and even surpasses Shrek the Third's first week of $150.3 million. This is a non-sequel, yet it is matching/outperforming sequels to some of the best box office performers of all time.
Joel Corcoran: I think the Transformers opening is equal to any we've seen this year. I'd rank it ahead of Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, and only slightly behind Spider-Man 3. This film is to the 2007 summer box office what George Mason University was to the 2006 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The film broke a couple of one-day records and matched the first Spider-Man's seven-day take. According to Paramount and Dreamworks, the movie had across-the-board appeal in terms of audience demographics. And we're talking about a film without an established franchise (unlike Shrek 3, Spider-Man 3, or Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End) directed by a guy whose last film set the very definition of "box office dud." I loved the movie, but I haven't had a moment of jaw-dropping astonishment like this since Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.
Reagen Sulewski: Simply because of that spread out release pattern, I can't rank it with the big three of this year so far in terms of opening weekend performance. I think it definitely burned out a bit of its audience pre-weekend, which is why this doesn't even come close to them, when a more compressed release slate might have put it north of $100 million. That said, Superman Returns tried more or less the same thing last year and came up about 20% short after a hot first day.
Joel Corcoran: Did your friends steal your Optimus Prime action figure from you when you were a kid, Reagen? I think comparing Transformers solely against Superman Returns only reinforces how impressive the Autobots and Decepticons have performed in the modern-day box office. Superman had the advantage of re-booting a known and proven franchise (well ... mostly ...). Transformers had a devoted fan base of nostalgic men approaching middle age desperately trying to hold onto their youths (I include myself in this demographic). Superman was directed by Bryan Singer, a director with a unique ability to make films that were popular, action-packed, and critically acclaimed (The Usual Suspects and X2 ... we'll consider Apt Pupil a minor stumble). Transformers is directed by Michael Bay. Lest we forget The Island, we have to overlook Bad Boys II, Pearl Harbor, and Armageddon before we get back over ten years to one of his films that really fit the term "summer blockbuster." I would've been pleased as punch with a movie that, unlike Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, was good enough not to ruin my childhood memories. The fact that it broke any box office records at all and is at least a contender for the top-grossing movie of the year (we'll see about that over the next two weeks) is utterly astounding to me.
David Mumpower: I think the key to all of these discussions is whether we isolate the opening weekend from the rest of the week or not. On its own, a $67.6 million debut is none too impressive for a movie with a $150 million budget. When we factor in the entirety of the week, however, a title that exceeds Shrek the Third's first full week looks like a box office monolith.
Reagen Sulewski: I think you're mixing in reception to the movie with how well it did. There's a pretty fundamental difference here when we compare it to Spider-Man 3 - that film did more than twice what this film did in a comparable time period, and it took six and a half days of Transformers to equal three of it. Five days in the case of Shrek 3 and Pirates 3. There is an admittedly impressive amount of sustenance to the seven day total and kudos to Spielberg and Bay for guiding this to the result. But straight up against May's big three? Those are much more impressive in the realm of getting lots of butts in seats fast.
And I don't get your point about Bay - yes, he needed this to be a hit after The Island flopped, but Bad Boys II made $140 million. Pearl Harbor almost made $200, and Armageddon made just over $200. How do these not fit the mantle of summer blockbuster? All of them made more than The Rock.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I'm with Reagen here. The strange calendar configuration makes this one a little bit less impressive than its three-quel brethren. But since it's a first in a series, this performance is plenty impressive in its own right. Of course, we'll be talking about Harry Potter in two days, so it really did need to make the most of its first week.
Max Braden: I think we do have to take into consideration that Transformers was a first entry in a summer of sequels, despite the notion that the Autobots are an established property. Even "long weekend" numbers, until recent history, rarely saw grosses in excess of $80-90 million, and I think they only reason we're hearing the $152 million number for the long weekend (absurd, since six days is only a day short of a week) is so it can look good against numbers like $128 million and $151 million for Pirates 3 and Spider-man 3 respectively.
But look at the history of opening weekends: Transformers is ranked about tenth in history for thrfee-day weekends for movies that aren't sequels. We're also likely to see a top ten performance for fastest to $200 million history, including sequels. I think it's fair to say that Transformers exceeded expectations for a movie of this type, and holds its own against the other summer blockbusters.
If it doesn't make $300 million, it's probably Starscream's fault
Kim Hollis: Where do you see Transformers going from here? Do you believe it has made a majority of its box office already or do you envision a performance well beyond $300 million?
Reagen Sulewski: If you look at something like War of the Worlds, which had an almost identical opening weekend, and tack on the extra that it made prior to the weekend, you end up at almost $300 million. I think that just a little bit beyond that is the ceiling - which is of course nothing to sneeze at. The big question is just how much of its audience it's used up with the opening week stunt. The fact that it wasn't able to beat that July 4th total on any of the weekend days tells me it's at least some. My gut instinct is that it's made just slightly over half of its final domestic total already.
Joel Corcoran: Reagen's analysis is as solid as ever. The only factor working in Transformers' favor right now (that I can think of) is repeat viewings. Every person I've talked to who saw the movie and liked it has said they want to go back and see it in the theater again - or maybe even three or four times. Granted, my friends are a small sample. I know about 12 to 15 people who liked the movie (the other half dozen or so who didn't are just crazy), but I found this near-universal desire to see Transformers multiple times rather surprising. If my sample of friends is statistically accurate, then Transformers will break $300 million. But for now, my gut instinct is the same as Reagen's - I think it'll hit around $280 - $285 million in the end.
Tim Briody: Yeah, about half of its wad was probably shot this week. A hair under $300 million is my pick.
David Mumpower: I would not read a lot into that, Reagen. If you look at the July 4th openers the last time we had this calendar configuration, neither Cats and Dogs nor Scary Movie 2 matched their July 4th total on any of the weekend days. The best either one managed was 90% of its July 4th total on the following Saturday. So, Transformers' $25.9 million on Saturday is 89% of the $29.1 million it made on Wednesday, basically matching the 2001 performances. Given that Cats and Dogs had a final multiplier of 2.55 from its first five days of box office and Scary Movie 2 had a 2.09, I don't see any reason to expect Transformers to earn under $300 million. It might even wind up surpassing Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End in total domestic box office and could even sneak into the top 20 all time if it holds up well over the next seven days. The only real concern is that consumers have had an unprecedented ability to see the movie this weekend, meaning that a lot of supply has already been met.
Kim Hollis: I'd say it's probably going to finish right at $300 million. The good news is that I think it's not going to suffer from the same massive deflation that some of the other big tentpoles saw this year thanks to generally positive word-of-mouth. In the end, explosions, robots and special effects will carry the day.
Amanda Jones: I can't see any lasting power. Kim talks about positive word-of-mouth but I haven't heard that, and I hang out with 15 year old boys. But... we need to keep in mind that I am *stunned* at its opening weekend take based on the same information / demographic. maybe 20/30-somethings actually got babysitters to mark this opening.
(I'm so baffled. I love when sh*t blows up on big screens and I just ... never thought this would kill like it did.)
David Mumpower: For what it's worth, its current ranking at IMDB is 8.2 out of 10 after approximately 30,000 votes. Personally, I feel that waaaaaay too many people have been loose and free with the shiny 10 button there (that's what 47.7% of the votes are at the moment), but that number would tie it for 87th best movie of all time if it stood. That's right. IMDb users currently believe Transformers is a better movie than Unforgiven, The African Queen, It Happened One Night, The Deer Hunter, and The Princess Bride.
Max Braden: Whether the movie is "good" or not, I don't think matters since it reaches its core audience well. It has no action-genre competition for the next three weeks or so until Bourne Ultimatum comes out, but I think the teen boy dollars may get sucked away by Chuck and Larry and The Simpsons. I wouldn't be surprised if tops out at the $275 million range.