Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
July 16, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix had the best non-holiday five-day total ever, earning $140 million. This is a tremendous performance, correct?
Michael Bentley: It's pretty darn good, yes. Though I can't imagine that anyone is surprised by it. It'll likely end up in the same ballpark as the previous Harry Potters: upper 290s.
Reagen Sulewski: I feel like my role is to be the bitter, washout, domineering sports-father sometimes (nothing is ever good enough!), but I always feel it's a bit of a disappointment when a film fails to follow up a record day with a dominating weekend performance. $44 million is good for a single day, but what did you do on the weekend? Oh, that's all, huh? Well, we'll do better next time, right? RIGHT??!!
In all seriousness, that's a damned impressive total, and it's going to be fastest to $150 million of any of the films previous to it in the series. The only reason I even bring up the weekend total is because that is the basis of future earnings.
Kim Hollis: Well, of course with the Wednesday opening, its weekend demand is instantly depleted. Especially when $44 million worth of customers saw it on its first day. I think Warner Bros. should be extremely pleased with the $140 million total in five days, but I also believe that has to be tempered a bit with caution. Will the release of the final Potter book cut into second weekend profits? I think there's a chance the answer is yes. But I also suspect this is why they decided on a Wednesday opening in the first place.
David Mumpower: Here are the numbers that matter about Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. Its five day total of $140.0 million is the best in the franchise's illustrious history by a whopping $20.3 million. Even if we adjust all the titles for inflation, it beats Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone's $125.7 million by 11.4%. Using the inflated numbers, Chamber of Secrets would be at $115.2 million, Prisoner of Azkaban would be $119.6 million, and Goblet of Fire would be $127.0 million. So, it beats the best prior performer, Goblet of Fire, by a full 10%. It also beats Shrek 2, the previous record holder for a five-day non-holiday total, by $11 million. Reagen may be focusing upon the weekend performance, but what I see is the full body of work to date, and that is a striking total.
Have you heard that a new book will be available on bookshelves this weekend? No one cares about reading, right?
Kim Hollis: What tangible reasons are there for Order of the Phoenix to have shot out of the gate so much more strongly than the previous films?
Tim Briody: I'd call it partially the summer release and mostly that Deathly Hallows is due out this week. I admit I'm not into the series at all. Have any of the other movie releases come so close to a book release?
Michael Bentley: Nope, this is definitely the closest that any of the movies have been to a book release. I believe the sixth book came out about four months before the last movie (Goblet of Fire), which is the closest. But I agree, it's a combo of the summer time frame plus it being right before the eagerly-awaited final book.
Max Braden: I haven't read the books and though I've seen them all on dvd, only went to see the third one in theaters because I went with some friends. On seeing the trailer for the Order of the Phoenix, it was the first time I actively wanted to see the movie in theaters. I don't know if the trailer hooked audiences like it did for me, but I don't think it hurt. This one had positive reviews, but so did the previous films... I think the upcoming book release had an impact, as well as the draw of Harry's screen kiss. A partial consideration is that this release is on about 10% more screens than the previous films.
Reagen Sulewski: I also credit it mostly to the book's release date timing. It's Cross-Promotion 101. A couple of others factors helped a little - summer weekdays are about two to three times as high, which really only came into play on the Thursday, but still... and the six years of ticket inflation that we've seen since the first film was released, which has been about 20%.
Jim Van Nest: The seventh book release no doubt has a lot to do with the opening, but I think Max nails it even more. I'm a Potter fan and for me, the first four movies have been good but not great. Order of the Phoenix is, by far, the best of the films and you can tell even in the trailer. I think the trailer pulled in a lot of Max's that would normally wait for DVD, but the movie actually looked good to them, so they hit the theater.
Kim Hollis: I wouldn't agree with the contention that the trailer for the fifth film looked better than the previous films. Prisoner of Azkaban had the awesome "Something Wicked This Way Comes" preview and Goblet of Fire was similarly fantastic. By the same token, though, I liked Prisoner of Azkaban and Goblet of Fire significantly more than the fifth film.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix always had an uphill battle to fight, particularly given the fact that this was the book that most people seem to have really disliked. The good news is that the primary reason for this hate, Dolores Umbridge, makes for a much better movie character than a book character - you can get away with being so cartoonish in film. I really do believe that what happened this month is a perfect storm of Potter. With both the movie in theaters and a book on the way in short order, fans were able to get worked into a frenzy and this led to massive success starting on Wednesday.
Les Winan: There has to be some correlation between the arrival into teendom/spending money of the first kids who were Potter fans and the growing success of the films. The increased quality of the films after 1 and 2 has to also be a factor.
David Mumpower: As everyone has mentioned, the timing of the movie against the unprecedented anticipation of the final Potter novel is a masterstroke. I do believe the success goes beyond that, however, and Les has touched upon why. What we have witnessed in recent years with franchise sequels is that the quality of prior titles does spill over to the box office performance of the next title. The initial struggle of Ocean's 13 is a perfect example of this. Order of the Phoenix is aided by the fact that its direct predecessors were both wonderful. The IMDb ratings and Rotten Tomatoes scores for Prisoner of Azkaban as well as Goblet of Fire are exemplary whereas Sorcerer's Stone and Chamber of Secrets were less well received. The series is, for lack of a better word, perceived as peaking in quality, and that heightens consumer trust with the product.
But really, *where on the spectrum* do you expect it to fall?
Kim Hollis: The previous four Harry Potter films have wound up with box office between $249 and $317 million. Where on the spectrum to you expect Order of the Phoenix to fall?
Michael Bentley: Somewhere around $290-295 million; right about where Goblet of Fire fell. So, it's already probably near half its total.
Max Braden: That low range number was the one for the only other summer frame release for the series, The Prisoner of Azkaban. I think the dark tone might have hurt that film, but I think the legs or Order of the Phoenix won't last as long as they might have in the holiday season. $275-280 million.
Reagen Sulewski: With a little luck, I think it could squeeze out just over $300 million. Provided it doesn't have its legs cut out from under it, those summer weekdays are going to make a difference of $10-20 million to the final totals.
Jim Van Nest: Well, if there's any justice, it should finish as the highest grosser of the series since it's the best movie. Word-of-mouth has been really positive and I could see it cracking the $300 million mark. I would think when the whole series is complete, it'll rank as the #2 or #3 grosser in the series. Deathly Hallows will be the one to squash the rest.
Dan Krovich: It seems like they've settled into a consistent range where they know what the Harry Potter movies are going to make. There's probably not a whole lot more to be gained, and even at this point there's not much risk of doing a whole lot worse so the goal seems to be to keep the costs down and cash the checks.
Kim Hollis: I'm actually going to go toward the low end of the range - $265 million. I expect the second weekend drop to be drastic and while it should recover some after that, it won't ever be quite the same as it was in week one. This would put it near the bottom of the spectrum, but much of that is because of the summer release.
David Mumpower: I suspect a total in the range of $280 million will be accrued. As has been pointed out, summer legs didn't help the prior Potter release in this season. What does aid it significantly, however, is the fact that there is nothing on the radar that will replace Order of the Phoenix in IMAX theaters. As long as it has that business locked up, it will hum along at $4 million extra a week indefinitely. That seems insignificant but it adds up over time. Superman Returns was a prime example of such behavior from an otherwise struggling performer.
Jim Van Nest: And having seen Phoenix on the IMAX, in a word...WOW! The 3-D scene at the end of the flick was worth the price of admission by itself. I know I convinced a handful of people to see it a second time on an IMAX screen. Hell, I'd see it again on IMAX!
Tell me why I don't like Wednesdays!
Kim Hollis: Does the early week success of Transformers and Order of the Phoenix eliminate some of the stigma against the strategy of mid-week openings?
Tim Briody: I still don't like them because what a movie could earn From Wednesday-to-Sunday should theoretically still be possible from Friday-to-Sunday (I doubt there has ever been a movie that's sold 100% of its seats for an entire weekend of showings), but when dealing with a known quantity with a huge fanbase like Harry Potter, it's not that big a deal. For something with questionable quality and box office prospects, a five day opening is just asking for it.
Michael Bentley: I wouldn't exactly call it a stigma. I mean, plenty of tentpole films have done it successfully before. But, yeah, we'll probably see even more of them in the next couple years now.
Max Braden: For summer blockbusters maybe, but I doubt it will be an across the board trend. I for one would like to support the stigma so I don't have to deal with apples/oranges 3-day weekend comparisons.
Reagen Sulewski: There's still no reason to do it with anything but the very highest calibre of blockbusters. You're looking for "Really Big Number" not "Be Awed By Our Accounting Practices!"
Michael Bentley: Just imagine how big the numbers would be if the boys of Enron could work their magic!
Kim Hollis: As Reagen and others have mentioned, I think this is only a worthy strategy when it comes to movies that are expected to be blockbusters in the first place. Otherwise, I think studios are as likely to be hurting themselves.
David Mumpower: It all comes down to calendar configuration and how a movie's opening box office needs to be marketed. For Spider-Man 2, a Wednesday opening was a mistake. For Transformers, it was a brilliant tactic. With regards to Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, it falls somewhere in the middle. A $100 million opening weekend would have gotten it great headlines and a $140 million five day total gets it the same celebratory news cycle.
To a larger point, I do feel that these two performances undo some of the damage caused by Superman Returns. Studios won't be quite as scared off by the mid-week release.
Optimus Prime wins again
Kim Hollis: Transformers held up very well from last weekend, falling 47% to $36 million. It has a running total of right at $223 million. What odds do you give of it earning $300 million? And what odds do you give of it surpassing Spider-Man 3 ($335 million) for #1 for the year?
Michael Bentley: I was pretty impressed with its hold this weekend. I think it's almost a sure-thing for $300 million. $335 million will be tougher, though.
Tim Briody: If it does make it, it's going to be the quietest $300 million earner ever. So fickle is the box office now. It's got no chance at Spider-Man, by the way.
Max Braden: It's chugging along fairly well because it lacks competition. I can see another $70 million, but it won't catch Spider-Man 3.
Reagen Sulewski: That's about $5 million more than I would have given it credit for for this weekend, so I'll add about $15 million more to my prediction, which would put it just over $300 million. I think Harry Potter hits $300 sooner though, if they both get there.
Dan Krovich: A part of that relatively small drop has to do with the fact that the first Friday was its fifth day in release (when we include the Monday at 8 p.m. showings). This weekend-to-weekend drop is essentially a second weekend-to-third weekend drop, and that is right in line with what the three-quels did.
Kim Hollis: I think it hits $300 million, but only just. Spidey 3 continues to be safe.
David Mumpower: I agree with everyone else here. I do believe it's 70% likely to reach $300 million. With regards to catching Spider-Man 3, I don't even give it a 10% chance at the moment.
Poor Harry's dollars are too thick for his wallet
Kim Hollis: Same questions with Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. What odds do you give that it will reach $300 million? And what are its chances of beating Spider-Man 3 for #1 film of the year?
Michael Bentley: 50-50, and maybe 10% chance. I could be wrong, but I expect a huge drop next weekend, as a bunch of kids will be reading the newest book instead.
Tim Briody: Goblet of Fire broke the trend of diminishing returns for the Potter movies, but I think that streak ends at one. Incidentally, it's absolutely fascinating that we have now had two straight weeks with movies basically getting halfway to $300 million in their first five days, and neither is a lock for $300 million nor has any chance at beating Spider-Man 3. I guess there was something to being first out of the gate.
Max Braden: It wouldn't surprise me if The Order of the Phoenix doesn't even match the $290 million of its predecessor, The Goblet of Fire. So I'd say the odds aren't good at it getting to $300 million or beating Spider-Man 3. I do however think the Phoenix run will provide a boost for fantasy films Stardust in August, and also for The Golden Compass in December, just when the Potter DVD will be heavily advertised.
Kim Hollis: I mentioned that I don't really see Potter getting to $300 million already, which means that it's obviously not beating Spidey.
David Mumpower: I am going to hedge my bets here a little bit. I am never a fan of determining a film's final box office after such a small sample size for performance. I don't expect Order of the Phoenix to earn $300 million, but I certainly would not rule it out. I see the odds as about 40%. Despite this, I am not ready to dismiss its chances of surpassing Spider-Man 3. There are too many unknowns at the moment. People are expecting its box office to be negatively impacted by the presence of the seventh novel. I am not so certain. I see it as possible that the book keeps people wanting to see the fifth movie more often than normal in its third and fourth weekend. Combining this with the IMAX premise from a prior topic, Order of the Phoenix does have a chance to hang around long enough to surpass Spider-Man 3. I don't give it good odds, but I would say it's got a 20% chance, which is twice as much as I gave Transformers.
Jim Van Nest: I'm not so sure it won't crack the $300 million. Everyone keeps pointing to the release of the book as a potential draw away from the second weekend. Okay, fair enough. We'll probably see a large drop off for next weekend. Of course, that's been the trend all summer, really. I wonder about the third weekend. With all the fanatics having finished Deathly Hallows by then, will they head back to the theater for one last dose of Harry? It'll be a while before Half-Blood Prince hits and there are no more books to look forward to.