Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
July 30, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Simpsons Movie shocked the entire industry by earning an estimated $71.9 million this weekend, making it the largest traditional animated opening of all-time. To what do you attribute this incredible turn of events
Reagen Sulewski: As a fan, obviously I'm thrilled ("sequel?"). I always knew a Simpsons film would be big, but it was always going to be a matter of just how big. It's become the culture for a lot of people, and I think this film was a kind of homecoming for a lot of people that don't watch the show religiously anymore. Think about this - the show averaged 8.6 million viewers an episode this season. If all of them went to the movie, with an average ticket price of about $7, that would "only" be $60 million.
David Mumpower: I have always felt there was an Occam's Razor to the potential of this movie that was being widely ignored. The Simpsons Movie has been receiving free advertising for 18 years now. The ubiquity of this franchise is such that if you travel to any part of the world and say the word, "D'oh!", people will know what you mean. It is its own universal translator. The Simpsons is in the discussion with Harry Potter, Superman, Spider-Man, Mickey Mouse and Star Wars for most recognizable franchise branding in the world. I have had the discussion about how to rank them in other forums before, but I do believe it is one worth re-addressing later this week on our next edition of Shop Talk.
Of course, even though The Simpsons Movie did not need much help in building awareness, the marketing campaign is one of the best I have ever seen. Turning the 7/11s into Kwik-E-Marts is a masterstroke, quite possibly the finest advertising tie-in cinema has produced to date.
Shane Jenkins: I think for a lot of people, the opportunity to watch The Simpsons with a crowd of like-minded fans was a big draw. I attended the Thursday midnight screening, and I can tell you - those people were out to have a good time, and their enthusiasm was definitely contagious. The trailers were well-crafted, showing just enough of the goods to whet your appetite, but not enough to make it seem like you had seen the entire movie. The fact that the movie is actually good is just icing on the cake.
Joel Corcoran: I have to admit that I completely underestimated how well The Simpsons Movie would do this weekend. I'm a fan, but I expected the fan base to treat this movie with a bit of wariness, if not skepticism. One of the best attributes of The Simpsons (TV show) is how well the comic pacing fits the standard half-hour TV time-slot, and I had significant doubts that the team behind this movie would be able to sustain the same excellence over the span of a movie-length treatment. Obviously I was wrong. I think the "homecoming" aspect was in important part of why people flocked to the theaters to see The Simpsons this week, but I fully agree with David. The marketing behind this film was absolutely brilliant, particularly the Quik-E-Mart conversions at 7/11s across the country and the Burger King commercial tie-ins. These efforts, and others, brought great excitement and a fresh twist to the most ubiquitous piece of modern pop culture currently in existence.
James Wood: Yeah, 18 seasons and countless reruns are an awful lot of touchpoints to reach potential ticket buyers.
David Mumpower: There is a Simpsons episode entitled New Kids on the Blecch wherein the navy uses "sub-liminal, liminal, and super-liminal" advertising to get people to enlist. The Simpsons Movie falls in the category of super-liminal advertising.
Kim Hollis: I was always a touch surprised that people were so conservative on The Simpsons Movie's potential. The trailer got huge laughs every time I saw it and even if it's not a ratings juggernaut, it's been consistent and is a show that most people have probably seen and enjoyed at some point in the last 17 years. Giving it the big screen touch just felt...special, somehow.
David Mumpower: Also, the Spider-Pig gag that became the focus of the final phase of the marketing campaign is inexplicably hysterical. Like the best Looney Tunes gags, I can't explain exactly why it's so funny, but it definitely is.
Jim Van Nest: I'll preface this by saying, "I'm not a Simpsons fan and haven't been since I left college in 1991". I'm blown away by this figure. I can't believe that many people spent all that money to go see something they could stay at home and watch for free. That being said, Shane nailed it when he said that part of the draw was seeing it with other fans. I think that's dead on. I watched the Simpsons in the common room of a frat-house for the first couple seasons. It was standing room only. When I left school, I left the show behind with it. I think the show plays much better with a group and that probably was the one thing I had forgotten when trying to gauge how it would open.
I should add that I should have known better when my eight- and nine-year-olds (who've never seen a full episode of the show, as far as I know) were running around singing about Spider-Pig for the last two weeks.
Dan Krovich: It's also worth pointing out that The Simpsons made $96 million overseas, so it's a worldwide hit.
Coming soon: John Travolta, Nic Cage, Homer Simpson and Shia LaBeouf in a combination live action/animated motorcycle movie
Kim Hollis: Out of Wild Hogs, Ghost Rider, Disturbia, 300 and The Simpsons Movie, which opening do you think has been the most surprising?
Reagen Sulewski: I think I'll have to say Ghost Rider, since that looked really terrible, and it's a comic book movie that I doubt many people even knew existed prior to the film. That succeeds and The Punisher flops?
Tim Briody: I'm going with 300 since it pretty much came out of nowhere to be huge. Disturbia is still going to be the only movie in all of 2007 to have three weekends at the top spot, which is going to make a fantastic trivia question someday.
David Mumpower: Given how much the tracking missed by, I have to say The Simpsons Movie. A lot of good box office analysts were expecting this to wind up in the $35 million range. In fact, Fox's Vice President of distribution, Chris Aronson, is quoted as stating that they had expected right at $40 million. How often is a studio pleasantly surprised by an extra $30 million like this?
Oddly, this is always the area I had been predicting it to make, but I was starting to wonder if my love of The Simpsons had made me too biased to its box office potential.
Reagen Sulewski: Yeah, but how much did Zybowski predict?
Joel Corcoran: Definitely Ghost Rider. A weak lead actor (Nic Cage), several cheesy trailers, a mediocre marketing campaign overall, and a storyline that ticked off fanboys of the comic all combined to make a $45 million opening weekend. And the movie is still likely to end up in the top-20 highest grossing movies of 2007. I'm just completely boggled when it comes to this movie.
Kim Hollis: I'm gonna go with Wild Hogs. It looked terrible and starred people who no one should care about anymore. Its success was baffling to me at the time and remains so now.
Jim Van Nest: I'm with you Kim. For me, not a comic guy, I thought Ghost Rider looked pretty cool in the trailers. Having just seen it, I can say that it sucked pretty bad. But come on: Travolta, Tim Allen, Martin Lawrence? Who DIDN'T see the trailer to Wild Hogs and wonder what kind of info they had on William H Macy? Everything about Wild Hogs screamed "horrible." So to me, it's easily the box office surprise of the year.
Michael Bentley: 300 by a nose over Wild Hogs for me. That opening was a big Keanu-like "Woah" for me.
It will make one trillion dollars!
Kim Hollis: Recently, we talked about the final box office prospects for two other $70 million openers, Transformers and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. What do you think are the box office prospects for The Simpsons Movie long-term? Will it play out as a family film? Is it front-loaded? Will it get repeat viewers?
Reagen Sulewski: As good as the film is, I think it's going to fall like Homer jumping Springfield Gorge. In many ways, this is the ultimate fanboy film. I would take a look at performances like X-Files: Fight the Future and the South Park Movie. A 50% drop would be a triumph, and from here, it might get to about $175-180 million.
David Mumpower: I would love for this to go on to make $200 million or more at the box office. Reagen has already pointed out the best comparison, 1998's Fox movie adaptation of their then-hugely popular series, The X-Files. The movie opened to $30.1 million but wound up with final domestic receipts of $83.9 million. In the current market climate, that would seem like good legs but at the time, it was horrific front-loading. I'm not completely certain The Simpsons Movie makes $150 million domestically. Of course, it doesn't matter much at this point. With a budget of only $75 million and world-wide box office of $96 million for 71 markets, it's already golden financially.
Shane Jenkins: X-Files was not terribly newbie-friendly. I can personally attest to that. Fortunately, you don't have to be a member of the Cult of Simpson to appreciate this movie (though it does reward that loyalty). I think word-of-mouth will be terrific on this one, so maybe even some of the unwashed will be tempted to check it out when their friends rave about it.
Joel Corcoran: Thanks, Shane, for saying "Cult of Simpson" before I was forced to do so. I didn't want to stand alone, facing the wrath of BOP readers for saying that.
The Cult of Simpson viewers will go back to the theater at least once or twice more, though I bet the DVD sales for this movie will be immense and overwhelming (compared to what the average movie generates from a DVD release). The question of whether it's front-loaded or not is a tricky one though. I'm expecting a 50-55% drop-off next weekend, but I think the movie should have some pretty long legs. It will be a nice alternative to the usual late-August/early-September box office doldrums, and a lot of casual Simpsons fans (like me) will have to reconsider the decision to wait for the DVD, rather than seeing the movie in theaters. Even with a sharp drop over the next week, The Simpsons Movie should hit $175 million in total domestic box office take, though $190 million is not out of the realm of possibility.
Kim Hollis: I've been feeling like it would be extremely front-loaded, but Joel's point is well-taken. I'm sure there are plenty of people who were taking the "wait and see" attitude about this, and with the glowing response The Simpsons Movie has received, some of them might be the ones to give it a chance in weekend two. And having seen it twice already, I can attest to the fact that it's actually better on a second viewing, so maybe repeat business will be there as well.
David Mumpower: There is a certain segment of Simpsons fans (i.e. people like me) who will go watch this repeatedly in theaters. I'm not sure if it will be any more of a factor here than it has been for the Star Wars prequels, but it definitely could prop up the legs a bit.
Michael Bentley: I don't want to get in a pissing contest of which franchise has the most loyal fans, but fans of Homer and the gang are very devoted to the show. There will be a lot of Comic Book Guy-wannabes who return for multiple visits in the hopes of figuring out every last little detail. That said, most people who really wanted to see the movie will have seen it in the first few days. So I expect a big-time drop this week, and a grand domestic total of about $155 million.
Walid Habboub: Why isn't anyone looking at this movie like a kid's movie?
I haven't seen it yet, and haven't seen what the kid/adult ratio is in the theatres, but i'd be shocked if this isn't big with the kids. In fact, I think the main reason it opened bigger than what most people estimated is because of its cross-generational appeal. I think the legs will be very strong on this movie, and with very few strong kids movies coming out soon, I'd be shocked if it doesn't beat every number predicted so far.
I went out on a limb and said it would open to $80, I'll go out on a limb and say it ends up in the $250 to $300 range.
How did this movie make $11 million, but no one was willing to give Kitchen Confidential a shot?
Kim Hollis: No Reservations finished in fifth place this weekend, earning an estimated $11.8 million. What do you think of this performance?
Tim Briody: Well Catherine Zeta-Jones and Aaron Eckhart are...zzzzzzz...zzzzzz....
Reagen Sulewski: It's not a fantastic result, of course, but getting into double digits helps it to not be viewed as a flop. There always seems to be a minimum audience for any romantic comedy with at least one recognizable name, no matter how bland it looks.
David Mumpower: In discussing the movie's performance, we should keep in mind it has a relatively frugal budget of $28 million. So, this is probably going to be a solid enough earner for Warner Bros. It's like the constant onslaught of horror and animated movies in recent years in that the release feels so calculated and lacking in originality. There is an exercise in demographics rather than an attempt at artistic creativity. As such, I can't get excited about No Reservations discussions.
Joel Corcoran: Uhm ... there was another movie opening this weekend? What's this one about? Travel agents? Hotel desk clerks?
Kim Hollis: It really is tough to get fired up to talk about this one. It looked by-the-numbers and dull, and reviews gave no reason to believe otherwise. It will probably be a decent DVD hit, though.
James Wood: (Simpsons movie aside) Why would people pay money for something they can watch for free on the Travel Channel? Seriously, I bet if you screened the season premiere of Anthony Bourdain's show and sold tickets it would gross more than this.
Jim Van Nest: I might be more surprised this one hit double digits than I am with the Simpsons total. To echo others...why would you go see this? The stars aren't really engaging and neither is the premise. I'm thinking Hell's Kitchen could open to $15 million after this.
Dan Krovich: If you look at the other movies in the top 10, the only one that I would guess has significant overlap with No Reservations is Hairspray. I'm guessing the demographics were on the older side and skewed female, but that audience didn't really have many other choices if they wanted to go to the movies this weekend.
Surprisingly, I Know Who Killed Me is not a title that refers to career suicide
Kim Hollis: I Know Who Killed Me opened in ninth place this weekend with an estimated $3.4 million. Do you think this total was helped, hindered, or unaffected by the latest appearance of Lindsay Lohan legal?
Tim Briody: I've said for years that Mean Girls is going to become a historical document to prove that Lindsay Lohan was once considered a) attractive, b) talented and c) "the good one." Things like this prove my point further. I had no idea this movie even existed until a few days ago so her current troubles didn't really matter.
Reagen Sulewski: I think the arrest was horrible timing, but it's not like without that it was going to be an easy sell. There's a backlash building against these starlets, and even if the movie wasn't getting laughed out of theaters, it wasn't going to do well.
David Mumpower: There was no marketing and nothing tangible in terms of studio support even before that. If anything, it gave some TMZ viewers a bit more reason to attend it for the purpose of rubbernecking. The most poignant thing out of all of this from my perspective is her Freaky Friday director, Mark Waters, begging her to get help. He seems more emotionally invested than her parents do. I hope that Lohan has a Drew Barrymore type of recovery from all of this, but her path to redemption is a long, long road.
Kim Hollis: My thought is that her arrest gave her last remaining fans, the ones who might have been standing by her, no reason to keep doing so. As such, I Know Who Killed Me was probably an even worse performer than it might have been.
Dan Krovich: I don't think the movie was ever going to do very well, but the arrest certainly hurt. Lohan was the only point they had to sell this movie on and when she wasn't available, they were screwed. I don't see how any studio is going to want to take a chance on her now. They can find someone else or make a new star without all the baggage. Her only hope is to get clean and perform well in some indie movies that will be willing to take a chance for the publicity.
No respect.
Kim Hollis: Who's Your Caddy opened to an estimated $2.9 million. Does this prove that Big Boi is as big a draw as Lindsay Lohan these days?
Reagen Sulewski: That's about as much as a film with a pun-based title deserves.
David Mumpower: My question here is simple. Can you watch Who's Your Caddy at those certain sorts of *ahem* exclusive country clubs?
Shane Jenkins: Does Andy Milonakis play the gopher in this? How are you gonna have a Caddyshack remake with no gopher? At the very least, I hope there's a P. Diddy song that samples heavily from Kenny Loggins!
Kim Hollis: Why this didn't go straight-to-video I'll never know. I'm loving that it's currently #2 on the Bottom 100 List at IMDb.
David Mumpower: What's #1?
Kim Hollis: Die Hard Dracula! Sadly, it is not the lesser-known fifth film of the Die Hard series.
James Wood: Can't wait for the...black? urban? Ice Cube?...remakes of Meatballs and Slap Shot.
By the way, I watched Meatballs over the weekend. It was like a two-hour commercial for American Apparel.
We fully expect a spoof movie completely made up of only Adam Sandler comedies. From the Wayans Brothers, of course.
Kim Hollis: I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry fell only 44% to $19.1 million. The title has a running tally of $71.6 million. Do you consider it a hit?
Reagen Sulewski: It's basically there. It should see about $125 million by the end, which is on the lower end of Sandler's oeuvre, but is still really strong relative to most comedies.
David Mumpower: I think it exemplifies just how much trust Adam Sandler's core group of fans trusts him. Let's be honest about the fact that this looks like garbage and has been shredded by critics. For a title such as that to make $100 million is impressive.
Joel Corcoran: It's already earned more than most comedies released this year, so I think it's safe to call Chuck and Larry a "hit," as much as I don't want to.
Kim Hollis: I wouldn't call it a hit or a miss. It's just, well, a movie that will make Sandler a bunch of money that won't be remembered all that positively.
Shane Jenkins: Dear Adam: Every time we laughed at one of your jokes, we were faking it too. Yes, we know. We're monsters.
Michael Bentley: With the exception of The Wedding Singer, all of Sandler's movies are starting to blend together for me.
When Hairspray meets An Inconvenient Truth, who wins?
Kim Hollis: Hairspray fell 43% to $15.6 million. Its cumulative gross of $59.3 million is great, but this is a larger drop than expected, right?
Reagen Sulewski: This ended up being exactly what I predicted on Thursday. I know the expectation was that the great reviews were going to push it strong through the second weekend, but the drop each day through its opening pointed to something like this for it this weekend. The audience for musicals is deep but not wide - and there are a lot of people that just aren't going to go see a musical no matter how good people tell them it is.
David Mumpower: In addition to Reagen's comments, I also think this behavior reflects Dano's assertion last week. He maintained that Hairspray is effectively High School Musical 1.5, so a film with a primarily teen audience is not expected to hold up as well in its second weekend.
Kim Hollis: Given how solid the word-of-mouth and reviews are, I'm a little surprised this didn't hold up better in weekend two. I guess it had a bit of a fanboy rush that I wasn't expecting.
Jim Van Nest: Tacking onto to David's comment about it having a largely teenage audience, I would think that same audience was part of what made the Simpsons so huge this weekend. And apparently, when forced to choose between Spider-Pig and Travolta in drag, the pig won.