Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
November 27, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Enchanted, the box office underdog story about a fairy tale become reality, grossed an astonishing $50 million over five days, making it the second biggest Thanksgiving opener ever behind Toy Story 2. How did this happen?
Reagen: Disney has truly rediscovered its mojo this year. They've got that trusted name, and continually bring interesting concepts to the screen. I think it also helps that people having a collective grade of "meh" to the family offerings in the last couple of months, so when something different comes along like this, they jump on it.
Pete Kilmer: Like Reagen said, Disney has rediscovered what to do right. Plus has there been a movie that captured the audience that Princess Diaries had when it was hot?
Max Braden: Not only for Thanksgiving, this was an impressive showing for a romantic comedy. I think Hitch holds that record for $43 million over a three day weekend. I heard mixed sentiment when I asked people before Thanksgiving if they'd see it. Some thought it looked funny, some said "too cheesy." I assume most audiences looked at it as harmless fun, and I think Disney struck the right tone, which was appealing to both young audiences and had a tongue-in-cheek kind of tone for older audiences at the same time. And then you have it standing out as the most family-friendly movie of the family-friendly holiday weekend. Love Actually scored the same way.
Kim Hollis: It's different from Love Actually, though, in that Love Actually was an R-rated film (it had the porn actors, remember) whereas Enchanted is really an entire family kind of film. It fits right into Disney's "princess" stuff that they push - they can add Giselle to their product line if they're so inclined now. Also, it always looked like it had just a marvelous sense of humor about it. If I had a little girl, it's definitely a film I would happily take her to see.
David Mumpower: I am of the opinion that Disney brand loyalty has regained much of its lost luster in recent months. Due to the successes of High School Musical and the dominant Hannah Montana brand, the company has earned a degree of trust with consumers that had been lacking in recent years about family-friendly entertainment. This allowed Enchanted to offer exactly the same sort of surprising, explosive Thanksgiving opening that 101 Dalmatians managed 11 years ago.
If you haven't, go watch Junebug. What are you waiting for?
Kim Hollis: With Enchanted, Talledega Nights and an Academy Award nomination on her resume, is Amy Adams on her way to being a superstar?
Tim Briody: With a few more solid choices, sure, but I still wouldn't recognize her if I passed her on the street.
Reagen Sulewski: I think you'd recognize her as the woman so pale, she's clear. I don't think she'll ever be a Julia Roberts-type star - I see her with a Hilary Swank kind of career.
Pete Kilmer: Uhhh....who? Amy Adams is gonna have the career of a utility player. She can do anything...but no one will remember her name right off the bat. I'm probably wrong on that, though.
Max Braden: I see her as a highly effective actress in different types of roles, but I have a hard time seeing her name above the title as prominently as Reese Witherspoon and Julia Roberts. She'd need to go the extra step of becoming a brand, and I don't feel that her personality is that upfront enough.
Kim Hollis: I'll go against the grain here and say that I think this is the role that helps her break out in a big way. She's pretty, funny and talented and there just aren't many actresses in Hollywood who can be that reliable.
David Mumpower: I'm with Kim on this one. I have been saying for a while now that the market is ready for someone to fill the void left by Sandra Bullock, Meg Ryan and Ashley Judd's recent struggles at the box office. Adams has just the right touch of indie credibility and mainstream movie appearances to be the new Sandra Bullock I've been expecting to ascend for the past few years. Her ability to handle mainstream comedy is a huge plus. She could be the go-to woman in the Apatow fraternity.
Maybe This Christmas will mean something more...
Kim Hollis: Disney was not the only studio celebrating this weekend. Sony's Screen Gems arm struck gold with This Christmas, which earned $27.1 million over five days. Why did this project succeed?
Pete Kilmer: That's easy...a black oriented holiday film with a strong cast sold that. It looks really funny and was THE first holiday film for black audiences in a long, long time.
Max Braden: This one surprised me because it had a Tyler Perry vibe to it, and even though Why Did I Get Married opened at $21 million, viewer opinion of his movies have been poor. Preston Whitmore's last movie, Crossover, is number 6 on IMDB's Bottom 100. Go figure.
Kim Hollis: Again, it's a safe family choice for the Thanksgiving holiday - and in this case it was targeted directly at what was apparently a very underserved demographic. With that said, I'm not entirely sure that the similar-looking The Perfect Holiday will enjoy similar success since it looks like an imitator (even with the beautiful Morris Chestnut and Gabrielle Union as the leads and my personal favorite Terrence Howard playing something called Bah Humbug).
David Mumpower: I think the struggles of Fred Claus show that it's far from automatic for a holiday-related movie to do great box office. I also believe that perception matters in such discussion because the Vince Vaughn film was clearly a disappointment yet this title with similar opening numbers is a bona fide hit. With regards to why one succeeded wherein the other failed, a lot of it is that we don't see African-American holiday movies very often. I've struggling in coming up with the name of the last one. Has there even been one? Novelty is a pretty good reason for such a strong performance.
What we really want is a Deadwood movie
Kim Hollis: The latest live action video game adaptation, Hitman, earned $21 million over five days. Is this more, less or pretty much what you were expecting?
Reagen Sulewski: I think that's about right. I don't think this was an extremely well known game franchise (could it have a more generic title?) and its one "star" was almost unrecognizable in it. It looked almost more computer generated than Beowulf.
Pete Kilmer: I think that's about right for this film. It was a B-level game series and not on the level of what Halo could be.
Tim Briody: Am I the only one who totally thought for a bit that Bruce Willis played the title character?
Max Braden: I really like the game but I thought from the trailers that Olyphant didn't have the heft for the role. I saw Hitman as a Thanksgiving stand in for a Bond movie. $20 million was about on target. I wouldn't expect it to have legs in any timeframe but the holiday season, and it will certainly be knocked down when I Am Legend opens three weeks from now.
Kim Hollis: I saw very little advertising for this other than trailers in front of a couple of movies, so I'm a bit surprised it fared even as well as it did. Max is right, though. It's not hanging around for any length of time and will make the bulk of its revenue on video.
David Mumpower: This is more than I was expecting. As much as I like Timothy Olyphant as an actor, I've never thought of him as a successful lead actor in major movie productions. And I also agree with Reagen that this is franchise is not on the level of Resident Evil, Final Fantasy or Halo. So, seeing such a solid opening five-day number surprises me. I guess it struck the right chord of vanilla action movie to get The Transporter's crowd to come out.
Don't forget Go
Kim Hollis: With Live Free or Die Hard and Hitman, where does Timothy Olyphant stand among Hollywood's up and comers?
Pete Kilmer: I thought that with him after The Girl Next Door. He's one breakout film from being a star. Live Free or Die Hard was a stepping stone for him, and while Hitman did okay, he wasn't recognizable as "him" in it.
Max Braden: I thought he was great in Girl Next Door and perfectly cast for Deadwood. He gives off a lot of intensity at the expense of approachability. That could hurt him for big lead roles. But I'd continue to go to his movies to see him perform.
Kim Hollis: He was totally ideal in Deadwood. Surprisingly, he was extremely charming in Catch and Release. I'm not sure that people will recognize him as "the guy from Hitman", however, because his appearance is so totally altered. I think he might just be looking at a career full of memorable small roles.
David Mumpower: He is one of the finest actors in the world, but I am afraid he's the Ric Flair of Hollywood. Audiences prefer him as the bad guy, which vastly reduces his box office pull. I would like to be wrong about this, though. With Catch and Release, Live Free Or Die Hard and this, he'll done exceptional work in 2007 and deserves to be rewarded for it. I can't imagine anyone else doing a better job with the Die Hard sequel than he did.
Lesson learned: Avoid the taint of Robin Williams
Kim Hollis: August Rush, a tender tale of an orphaned pre-pubescent musician trying to find his real parents, made $13.3 million over five days. Is this good or bad?
Marty Doskins: I think this is about what was expected. The commercials seemed pretty generic and nothing really stood out for me. I wonder if it would've done better if they had made it look like Robin Williams played a bigger role in the film.
Max Braden: I think there's an interesting subtle contrast between it and Enchanted, which may seem different because of the fantasy and comedic elements, but they're both family/date films. Enchanted didn't take itself too seriously, whereas you could just sense that the marketing for August Rush was pushing for really earnest emotions with less comedy. August Rush had a boyant feel, but just tried too hard, and I think that was reflected at the box office.
Kim Hollis: Since this movie always felt like a small studio film to me, I think this is a stellar weekend total. Any other weekend besides Thanksgiving, it would have tanked.
David Mumpower: I would describe this result as sensational. Projects don't ever look slighter in tone than August Rush. It screams indie film with under $10 million in total domestic box office. So, $13.3 million in its first week is well beyond best case scenario.
Are you afraid of the Mist?
Kim Hollis: The latest Stephen King adaptation, The Mist, failed to garner the same success as summer hit 1408. It earned $13 million over five days. The rare horror film with good reviews, The Mist seemed like a likely box office hit. Why hasn't that occurred?
Pete Kilmer: Because it looked like people stuck in a quickie mart. And with no real name stars in it, that didn't help it.
Max Braden: Its competition was probably Hitman, which did better. Looking back over the past few years, Thanksgiving hasn't featured a horror thriller except for the Saw movies, released at Halloween. Bad timing for the genre.
Kim Hollis: The timing is almost certainly an element - once again, compromise films are the movies that perform best over the Thanksgiving holiday. I also have to believe that people just thought it looked a little cheesy. I'm interested in seeing it because I know Darabont's track record, but the commercials just didn't present it in a positive light - especially the ones that showed the "creatures".
David Mumpower: I believe the explanation is much more straightforward in nature. 1408 was a claustrophobic, psychological horror thriller, the types of which we hadn't seen for a long time. The Mist, on the other hand, suffered from what I would call Dark Water syndrome. Neither the name nor the premise sounds scary. Audiences are so burnt out on horror by now that if a title can't claim one of those positives, it's in a world of hurt (no pun intended).
Will The Road be so popular?
Kim Hollis: No Country for Old Men, the Coen brothers release from Miramax, platformed into 860 venues, earning $8.1 million. With a grand total of $16.6 million so far, what does the future hold for this release?
Max Braden: A slight bump from end of the year Top Ten lists and ultimately some Oscar nods.
Kim Hollis: I think it has to be considered a big success so far, and will almost certainly ride a number of Oscar nominations to a solid total. At this point, I think it is the leading - if not only - Best Picture contender.
David Mumpower: I think it's going to get major end-of-year awards attention, but its Oscar options will be limited due to the uber-violent nature of the title. The Unforgivens of the Academy Awards are few and far between. Its box office rewards are going to be about what I would expect from a Coen Brothers release with this sort of reviews.
Kim Hollis: The Departed was plenty uber-violent. In a year with little to no competition, I'm not sure that sort of thing matters as much as it might in years with more plentiful contenders.