Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
December 11, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Golden Compass, long expected to be one of the box office heavyweights of the holiday season, failed to match early expectations. The New Line release earned only $26.1 million, a brutal result for a movie with a budget in excess of $180 million. What went wrong here?
Max Braden: The easy comparison is that at least has the look of The Golden Compass is The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, which opened at $65 million this weekend two years ago. While the His Dark Matters books may have been popular, they can't match the wide familiarity that the Narnia books have. The visuals may have been a draw to teens and younger, but the trailer's lack of a sense of what the story was actually about couldn't have inspired much confidence in adults. That left it vulnerable to review buzz. I don't know what the religious controversy was about, but I didn't feel any upshot about it. Plus, there's that "oh... Nicole Kidman." factor.
Reagen Sulewski: I think they misjudged the potential audience badly here. Yes, the Lord of the Rings movies and Narnia movie were big hits, but people had heard of those. I myself was only vaguely familiar with this series. Obviously you can create new franchises, but they've got to be special, or at the very least, have coherent ads. I shudder to think what the box office might have been without the Catholic Church giving free publicity to them.
Shane Jenkins: I wonder if all the discussion about its philosophies (or lack thereof) made the movie seem more like homework than a fun night out at the movies. I enjoyed the film, but I'm hard-pressed to name another recent film so densely packed with exposition and information. Even in its apparently neutered state, when compared to the book, it's still not a check-your-brain-at-the-door movie, and I suspect that those who were looking for a bit of fluff after a heavy day of holiday shopping opted for Enchanted.
Michael Bentley: It just didn't look all that great to me, but then I'm not in their target demo. You start to get tired of Hollywood continuing to repeat and recycle all its ideas over and over. Okay, big budget fantasy works - we get it - that doesn't mean we have to overuse it.
David Mumpower: My problem with the entire marketing campaign for The Golden Compass is that it never revealed what the story was about. The first shots focused upon exotic locales and impressive set designs. The later ones highlighted the special effects of the bears. That didn't help consumers much in figuring out what a movie called "The Golden Compass" might entail. I also think it's safe to say that nobody will be casting Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig together in any more big budget movies from now on.
Pete Kilmer: Honestly I don't think I've ever heard of the Dark Matters books so this movie really didn't mean much for me. And with Nicole Kidman...well...she's made some really bad choices over the last few years that I really don't trust her with my $10 anymore.
Kim Hollis: I have to blame the marketing. The book's great strength is the relationship between the humans and the daemons, creatures that in essence encompass their human partner's souls. The most winning element of the entire series is the main character's relationship with her Daemon and the struggle to stay together. I think if marketed well, that could have been a huge draw for children. As it is, I'm not altogether certain that the film does a good job with them, so maybe that's the problem in the first place.
Will the holiday bring silver and gold?
Kim Hollis: Whereas most studio execs lie when terrible numbers are attained by their releases, New Line President Rolf Mittweg was surprisingly honest, saying "It's a little bit disappointing," while indicating the studio had hoped for a result of as much as $40 million. Most of the time, studio bosses claim that later weekends will redeem the movie. In this case, due to the December release, it's actually true, although we give Mittweg credit for not offering the usual excuses. Do you believe The Golden Compass will wind up making $100 million or more domestically?
Max Braden: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe went on to earn an additional $225 million after its opening weekend. The Golden Compass won't manage that much, of course, especially with weaker reviews, but December and January can be generous. On the other hand, Eragon opened to similar numbers (though worse reviews) and topped out at $75 million. The Golden Compass might face some competition with National Treasure 2 and The Water Horse, but I think it will just manage to get over the $100 million domestic hump. On Mittweg, could he have been toeing the producer's line in the current tiff with the WGA? "See: there's no money!"
Reagen Sulewski: I think it might just make that, given Christmas week. But it's also entirely possible that it's in less than 2,000 screens by that week. There are a lot of movies coming out in the next couple of weeks.
Tim Briody: The Christmas week high tide rises all boats, but it's pretty much crippled itself with such a weak opening weekend. A heck of a lot depends on how much of that audience it hangs onto next weekend. If it can manage a decline that's, say, in the low 30% range, it's got a chance. Anything higher than that and it's going to barely notice a bump come Christmas.
Shane Jenkins: The trades and blogs are already having a field day with this weak showing, and it's only a matter of time until the stink of failure works its way down to the general public. It's going to be hard to pull out of a box office death spiral at this point, but it is the season of miracles and wonder! I think it will cross the $100 million mark, but only barely.
David Mumpower: I strongly suspect it's going to burn out prior to getting to $100 million. I understand the thought process of the people above who have indicated that through December legs, it has a chance to hang on, but this one has stink of failure on it now. The headlines are already written that it's made back less than 20% of its budget on opening weekend. I don't see it finding much life moving forward, particularly since it still has the same flaws that stopped it from having a strong opening in the first place. With regards to Max's question about him toeing the company line, I think that's an intriguing idea. I don't believe that's the case here, though. New Line is embattled at the moment, and his comments strike me as closer to fatalistic in a "Well, I'm fired now." way rather than a much larger, industry-related statement.
Pete Kilmer: I think it *might* limp to about $90 million domestic. They are really hoping for international dollars to save it, of course.
David Mumpower: The problem from New Line's perspective is that they sold off the foreign rights in order to get a lot of the budget covered. So, foreign receipts might help the movie, but they don't help its domestic distributor.
Little girls love Princesses.
Kim Hollis: Enchanted dropped an 35% to an estimated $10.7 million in its third weekend after spending two frames in the top spot. Do you think this movie will continue to see strong results into the holidays?
Max Braden: Last year's romantic comedy The Holiday (Diaz and Winslet) opened poorly this weekend and dropped around 38% for two successive weekends before getting a New Year's Eve weekend boost. I'd expect the same from Enchanted. It does face some upcoming competition with P.S. I Love You. I'd expect Enchanted to earn another $50 million at this point, or topping out at around $135 million domestically.
Reagen Sulewski: I think this, more than any other film out there right now, has the best chance to exploit the holidays. It's perfect for family and group viewing and has a unique hook relative to other films out there right now. It screams "compromise choice".
Michael Bentley: It won't be playing to sold-old shows anymore, but yes, it is definitely still a box office factor for the next few weeks. And I expect it to be one of 2008's biggest DVDs as well.
David Mumpower: I've seen a couple of comments from Disney execs indicating they believe it will make $150 million domestically. I am not quite that ambitious in my projections, but this is a perfect holiday release. It's family friendly and well intended. Studios haven't done a good job in releasing enough of those in the second half of 2007. That makes Enchanted a big fish in a little box office pond through the end of the month.
Oh, a movie about anasthesia. How intereszzzzzzzzzz
Kim Hollis: Awake fell 44% to $3.3 million this weekend. It has earned $10.7 million after ten days. Why is a movie starring Darth Vader and Sue Storm held in so little regard by North American consumers?
Max Braden: I saw some ads for Awake before it opened but I don't recall any since. Poor opening, no awareness... plus the acting chops of the two named stars aren't going to help pull anyone in.
Michael Bentley: Exactly, Max. I looked at the release schedule a couple days before its release and my first thought was "Awake? What the hell is that?"
Reagen Sulewski: It looked like a bad episode of CSI mixed with House and The Ghost Whisperer... which of course brings more questions as to why that didn't succeed, but really you don't have to look much further than no ads, no particular stars, and a release date that showed no confidence. How many calls a week do you think the Weinsteins make to get back into Miramax? 15? 20?
Tim Briody: It was the victim of the dreaded "week after Thanksgiving" release date. It's one of the few reliable dead zones left in the box office calendar. Also, wasn't this filmed at least two years ago?
Shane Jenkins: I'll be honest - $10 million is about $7 million more than I was expecting this to do. It's merely a terrible performance, instead of the WMD megaton action I was anticipating. Jessica and Hayden may be the two least charismatic actors in Hollywood. It was a stroke of genius (at least some sort of genius) to put them both into a movie at once.
David: I'm with Shane. The idea of putting Alba in the same movie with faux-Vader is a blatant attempt to create some sort of vortex of suck. If they played this movie on the stadium's big screen during a Miami Dolphins game, it might create a black hole of failure.
In hindsight, the biggest compliment I can give James Cameron is that he made Alba look like a promising actress in the Dark Angel pilot.
Studio execs will soon be begging at the side of the road.
Kim Hollis: With The Golden Compass and Beowulf, we have seen two films with budgets of over $100 million that have been huge financial disappointments. What is the difference between the holiday "blockbusters" and the summer ones that is keeping consumers from going to the movies? We've been down so much year-over-year recently. Do you see this trend continuing?
Max Braden: I get the feeling that studios are putting more award-bait platform releases into the holiday season in recent years, and then figuring as long as they throw in a movie that looks like a blockbuster, people will go see it. So quality hasn't been good since the hobbit fantasy films dominated December. There seems to be only one blockbuster winner each December, and it's drifting away from the epic fantasy or animation and more toward action/adventure. This year we have two likely strong performers with I Am Legend and National Treasure 2.
Reagen Sulewski: I wonder if this isn't something to do with DVDs supplanting box office as the main source of revenue for studios. They get as much product as they can out in the summer, get the DVD out in time for people to buy at Christmas, and take what they can get with theatrical release at Christmas.
Tim Briody: I think a big point is that neither of these looked all that appealing (at least to me) and they were relative unknown quantities, as opposed to the summer, which had a great deal of familiarity. I'm pretty sure that trend will continue as Hollywood pushes the majority of their sequels for the summer months.
Michael Bentley: I think it is simply a case of the product not being very good right now. Sure, there are some very fine movies out there (hint: go see No Country for Old Men!), but these are mostly smaller, artsier movies that rarely score well in the megaplex.
Vampires or Nic Cage? The decision *seems* easy.
Kim Hollis: Which film do you expect to be the biggest of the holiday season, National Treasure: Book of Secrets or I Am Legend?
Max Braden: The opening numbers may be close, with I Am Legend getting the advantage of opening first. But unless reviews are bad on National Treasure 2, it will be the champion with the longest legs. It could even manage to hit the $200 million mark.
Reagen Sulewski: I Am Legend may have a tougher time with its scare factor - that's going to limit a lot of its younger audience. National Treasure has a wider-appealing premise as well as built in familiarity being a sequel. What Smith can do these days as a lead is the wild card, however.
Shane Jenkins: The trailers for I Am Legend are terrific, and I can't wait to see it. I think it will do well enough, but I wonder if it will be one of those projects that falls between the cracks by trying to appeal to too many demographics at once. Like Reagen said, it will be inappropriate for the kiddies, but the horror aspect could also keep away some of the older crowd and women that make up a large part of Will Smith's fanbase. At the same time, there might not be enough explicit horror to keep the Friday night scream crowd's attention. So, I think I Am Legend kind of comes with a glass ceiling in terms of how much money it could possibly make. The sky's the limit for National Treasure 2 though, much to my chagrin. People don't seem to hate the first one as much as they should, and the family-friendly nature of the franchise means it will be the primary choice for all ages. Golden Compass's weak opening is good news for NT2, as that film will be a non-factor in another two weeks, and families will be looking for something to see together that doesn't involve poo-eating chipmunks. I give the edge to Nic and company.
Michael Bentley: It's already been well-stated, but unless it turns out to be a giant turkey, National Treasure 2 will likely be the winner. Though, as Reagen said: Will Smith "as a lead" is definitely a wild card.
Tony Kollath: I'm still intrigued at what the reaction to I am Legend will be once the public realizes what it's "about." The trailers do a fantastic job of making the project look interesting, without providing more than a whiff as to what the substance of the movie is. Without giving too much away, based on the source material, I was surprised to see this slated as a holiday film.
David Mumpower: I think the answer depends upon how we frame the question. If "bigger" means opening weekend, I strongly suspect that I Am Legend is going to take that title with a $60-$70 million performance, which is just dominant for a December release. Over the course of their theatrical runs, however, I expect Book of Secrets to surpass it as the biggest film not just of the month but of the entire post-summer period.
Pete Kilmer: I honestly can't wait for both these films. I am *so* ready for big popcorn films that I'll see both opening weekend and I never go out opening weekend for films. I will say that I think National Treasure 2 is gone be the winner over the long haul.