Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
May 7, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Given the rare combination of critical and financial success for Iron Man, it is in rarefied air in terms of overall reception. What film do you believe was the last to match Iron Man with regards to being a people-pleasing mega-blockbuster?
Joel Corcoran: There are quite a few animated films that were met with both great reviews and great box office success. Just look at Toy Story (and Toy Story 2), Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, or Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. But in terms of live action, special effects laden, mega-blockbusters, I think the only recent releases that could match Iron Man are the Lord of the Rings films.
Kim Hollis: I'd say it feels a lot like Spider-Man in that regard. Both have been extremely well received critically and audiences love them, too.
David Mumpower: I would argue that the only five films over the past several years who have received this lofty a combination of critical praise as well as sublime box office results are The Bourne Ultimatum ($227.4 million), Spider-Man 2 ($373.4 million), Finding Nemo ($339.7 million), The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King ($377.0 million) and Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl ($305.4 million). This is rarefied air.
There Was Nothing Honorable about This Movie
Kim Hollis: Believe it or not, there were other releases this weekend, not that most people noticed. Made of Honor, Patrick Dempsey's attempt to be the next George Clooney, earned an estimated $15.5 million this weekend. What are we to take from this result?
Tim Briody: McDreamy is a bit of a bigger draw than we thought. As I mentioned in my write-up, whenever Dempsey plays another romantic lead, we'll all completely forget how much this opened to and eventually made.
Pete Kilmer: Hollywood needs a new Cary Grant.
Joel Corcoran: I can just imagine what Dempsey's agent was telling him when they discussed this movie months ago: "Patrick, Patrick, Patrick - my boy! Look, you're playing a doctor on television's highest rated hospital drama, you got great teeth, and just look at your dimples! C'mon! If Clooney can make it work, so can you!"
Kim Hollis: He's probably better served as second banana-type material (see: Enchanted and Sweet Home Alabama). Revel in the television success, and supplement it with good supporting roles.
Reagen Sulewski: He's kind of the male Sandra Bullock at this point. He's never going to be a giant star (do you hear me, US Weekly? Do you? Never!) but I can certainly see him establishing a small but loyal following.
David Mumpower: If we absolutely must use the Clooney comparison, this would be his One Fine Day. That charming 1996 release starring Clooney earned $46.1 million domestically. Made of Honor appears to be in that range if we don't adjust the earlier title for inflation. Alternately, we can call a spade a spade and be honest about the fact that this project is intended to be My Best Female Friend's Wedding. Given that the Julia Roberts/Cameron Diaz comedy opened to $21.7 million back in June of 1997, it's obvious that Patrick Dempsey is no Julia Roberts? Or should that be Dermot Mulroney?
Why Not Just Wear an Al-Qaeda T-Shirt?
Kim Hollis: Baby Mama, the film that unites former Saturday Night Live weekend update anchors Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, fell 41% to $10.3 million. It has a ten-day total of $33.2 million. Are we calling this one a hit?
Joel Corcoran: I think it's a stretch to call it a "hit", but it's a much more solid performance than I expected. The fact that it fell off less than 50% is both impressive and slightly nauseating.
Kim Hollis: I think it's a mild hit. It's already exceeded its budget, and since a lot of times releases such as these are just extended commercials for the DVD, Baby Mama has done exactly what it needed to.
David Mumpower: Having seen the trailers too often while I was in the hospital, I stubbornly refuse to ever call this a hit. I am extraordinarily disappointed in any of you reading this who exchanged your hard earned money for a ticket to this monstrosity. Why are you people helping the terrorists win?
BOP Hasn't Been Dumped by Veronica Mars Yet, But We Still Hold Out Hope
Kim Hollis: Forgetting Sarah Marshall, the latest product of the Judd Apatow Machine, fell 44% to $6.1 million in its third weekend. The Jason Segel project has a 17-day total of $44.8 million. It's no Knocked Up, but we still consider this a good result, right?
Pete Kilmer: Yes. Being Segel's first major movie role and with no other major movie stars (Sorry Kristen Bell...you're my girl and everything but you're not a movie star yet)...this is a damn fine showing.
Tim Briody: I'll only truly be satisfied if Segel can parlay this into a few more viewers for How I Met Your Mother, the funniest show on tv at the moment.
Kim Hollis: Given that no one knows who Jason Segel is and the fact that Apatow didn't actually write or direct, I think this has to be considered a stellar result. Like Baby Mama, this is all just a run-up to a very successful performance on DVD.
David Mumpower: $44 million is a good result, but I cannot shake the notion that it would be doing about 50% better if not for the gruesome male frontal nudity scene that Jason Segel inflicts upon movie goers. We're in the era of text messaging, dude. Word gets around about stuff like this.
And Vivid Performers Don't Get Paid That Well
Kim Hollis: Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo fell a hefty 60% to $6 million this weekend. It has a running tally of $25.3 million after 10 days. Is this more, less or about what you had expected from the sequel to the Doogie Howser-obsessed BOP fave?
Pete Kilmer: Yeah. This movie will kill on DVD and on-demand.
Joel Corcoran: It's performing to expectations. At least it's performing to my expectations.
Kim Hollis: The sequel had almost made as much as the original after one weekend. I think we have to consider that an unqualified success.
David Mumpower: Let's address the elephant in the living room. John Cho and Kal Penn's asking prices to do this movie are not much more than you, the reader, would ask to be paid to star in a feature film. For that matter, Vivid porn stars might earn more per day than they did. The movie opened to $14.9 million. It had a production budget of $12 million prior to marketing. This is a best case scenario performance and this isn't even the release phase when it makes the body of its money. As Pete stated, DVD is where the money train is for Escape from Guantanamo Bay.
Pete Kilmer: Well, the first Harold and Kumar movie got Kal Penn's face out there to other casting directors as he's scored some nice roles on a couple of high profile TV shows (24, House). Also, a look at his IMDb profile has him in a bunch of straight to video movies, so he's gotten work. John Cho has just recently completed work on the new Star Trek movie as the new Mr. Sulu. If that movie hits, he's got work for the next 15 years. He's also been working steadily in small projects and roles. So, what I'm saying is that the Harold and Kumar movies really boosted their profiles quite a bit...and isn't that what an actor wants?
BOP Bets on the Skull
Kim Hollis: Our final topic for this week is simple. At this moment, do you expect Iron Man or Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull to win the summer box office season? Why?
Joel Corcoran: The only thing that can derail the Indiana Jones juggernaut is a national disaster of epic proportions. Or Batman (The Dark Knight). Iron Man is a fantastic movie with a surprisingly good opening weekend. But I just don't see it withstanding the tidal wave of Indiana Jones fans (who are going to drag their kids in droves to the megaplex, kicking and screaming the entire way) or the combined might of Dark Knight fanboys and crying Heath Ledger fans who want to see him in a role that's already receiving rave reviews.
Reagen Sulewski: The Indiana Jones trailer got a curiously flat response when I saw it in a full theater, though that could just be the reserved Canadian audience (of course they yucked it up to the Zohan and Love Guru trailers, which made me want to open up my nerve gas canisters I carry around for just such an occasion, but I digress). That said, I still think it's a $300 million plus movie, and I'm not sure Iron Man will be quite able to reach that. It's a much closer game than it was two weeks ago however.
Kim Hollis: I think Indy wins in a walk. I'm not particularly worried about the trailers, as I just don't think it lends itself to that format very well. They're really just ramping up the marketing campaign right now, so people should be seriously excited by the time the long holiday weekend arrives. Also, since it has that long holiday weekend as its opening date, it's going to get some early inflation anyway.
Marty Doskins: I'll also go with Indiana Jones. Kim's point about the marketing is very important right now. On top of the usual trailers and commercials, the previous movies are being re-released on DVD. I already had the original DVD release and my kids have watched them. My son actually asked me if we were going to see the new film in theaters rather than waiting for the DVD. He hasn't asked about going to the theater in quite a while. The old films seem to hold up well with new audiences. Maybe it has something to do with not as much CGI being used for special effects?
David Mumpower: Indiana Jones will do to Iron Man what Mike Tyson did to Michael Spinks. This goes for opening weekend, domestic box office and worldwide receipts.