Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 3, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: If you were Warner Bros., would you be pushing for a Sex and the City sequel or would you believe this was a crazy result that could never be duplicated?
Max Braden: If I were a studio I'd devote all my time to another Jason Bourne movie, Tron 2, Buckaroo Banzai 2, Real Genius 2, and Zero Effect 2. I'd also try to figure out how to do Braveheart 2 and Collateral 2. And in my haste to grab crossover dollars I'd probably make the career ending move of greenlighting Sex and The High School Musical, starring Britney Spears. But I'm sure the folks over at WB will figure out a way to do it right.
Pete Kilmer: If Warner Bros. was smart, they locked everyone in for a three-picture deal. But again Max is right, they need to greenlight Real Genius 2.
Tim Briody: The time is right for Kim Cattrall to return to the Mannequin movies. No, really, I'm a little stunned at its budget ($65 million) but provided they got an option out of each of the leads for at least one more, I don't see why they wouldn't go to the well one last time since it's guaranteed to be in the black by the end.
Joel Corcoran: I'm going to diverge and say it's a one-shot deal. This movie was what the television series finale should've been, and without giving away any spoilers, I think it would be very difficult to make a sequel that both continued the storyline and retained the whole Sex and the City atmosphere. Maybe Warner Bros. can release Sex and the City 2: The Golden Girls in about 20 or 30 years, though. And I also agree with Max - we need another Jason Bourne movie and Tron 2.
Reagen Sulewski: I think the event-ness of this is something that can't be recaptured. But if they're going to do another one, they have to do it quickly, as in 2009. Do not wait ten years like The X-Files.
David Mumpower: "Should they do a sequel?" and "Will they do a sequel?" are two statements that are never the same in Hollywood. And if you disagree, simply consider that Beverly Hills Cop 4: Life after the Amusement Park Shootout was announced this week. With regards to whether a sequel should be made, we all know the answer to that one. It's common sense. The discussion about whether there will be a sequel is much more complex. Warner Bros. stumbled into this distribution deal once New Line was swallowed. They have no true attachment to it, and I have to believe they are aware that they will not be catching lightning in a bottle twice. I am of the opinion that they will engage in preliminary discussions for a sequel this week. Then, they'll let future revenue and foreign grosses determine how to proceed. The latter avenue is the one that I believe will determine whether we get Sex and the City 2: The Legend of Curly's Gold.
Calvin Trager: Ahem, I believe I called dibs on using "lightning in a bottle" this week David. You got "one-trick pony" instead. Not too bad a deal for you given it's a Sara Jessica Parker movie.
Kim Hollis: I think the "should" of it is rather tricky, but I absolutely think they will. They're already talking about it, in fact. Now that they've done one, another one should be easy and old hat. And I'm sure the women of SATC aren't going to turn their noses up at more cash. Though my friend who went to the movie did note that unless they make the movie "Sex and the City and the Red Hat Society", it's just not going to work.
Calvin Trager: Add to it, if it wasn't already a foregone conclusion, a Devil Wears Prada redux.
People in masks are creepy. Jason Voorhees and Michael Myers have taught us this.
Kim Hollis: The Strangers is going to get lost in this news cycle, but it opened to a spectacular $21 million over the weekend. On a $9 million budget, this film has started better than Speed Racer did in its first three days. What do you think is the cause of this success?
Max Braden: That's a similar opening to Prom Night in early April, and it's been that long since there was a real horror movie for audiences to go see. But just as with Prom Night (which only grossed $47 million during its run) and many other gore films, The Strangers will probably die a quick death at the box office.
Pete Kilmer: The ads I saw on TV were effective. The whole "inspired by real events" tag was a real eye-grabber for me. This movie is done, though, and will be on DVD and on-demand pretty quickly.
Tim Briody: This is about as big a surprise as Sex and the City was, and nobody's going to mention a word of it. It's going to enter freefall from here, but $21 million for Generic Horror Film Du Jour which was effectively getting thrown to the wolves is an incredible accomplishment.
Reagen Sulewski: The truly surprising thing about it succeeding is that it isn't a remake and doesn't have a teenage cast, or both.
David Mumpower: Tim is absolutely right in that on pretty much any other week this year, The Strangers would be the story. Tripling tracking is a stunning accomplishment. I foolishly wrote this off as an irrelevant also-ran in the weekend forecast. In hindsight, my mistake was in ignoring my own interest. I had found the visual of the people with the creepy masks to be a memorable one. In fact, I've had it randomly flash in my head at several intervals over the past week. That's a sign of a great job by the marketing people, who definitely deserve to take a bow here. $21 million for The Strangers is a phenomenal accomplishment. It's a nothing project on paper.
In which some leading questions are asked and people still get the answer wrong
Kim Hollis: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull fell a solid 55% to $44.8 million, beating Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End in terms of percentage decline (Pirates 3 fell 61%) as well as actual dollars (Pirates 3 made $44.2 million). Do we think that it will be able to beat Iron Man and At World's End over the long haul?
Max Braden: I still say no, expecting Iron Man to finish over $300 million and Indiana Jones under. Indy did well this weekend because it wasn't competing with Sex and the City's audience. Kung Fu Panda will really eat into it from here on.
Pete Kilmer: No way. Iron Man is chugging along and will still do strong business until The Hulk comes out. Indy will squeak out another $20 Million next week, but that's it. It'll be at the dollar theater after that. This summer is just LOADED with blockbusters and there really is almost no breathing room anymore.
Joel Corcoran: Nothing is going to stop Iron Man, and I think it will continue strongly even after The Hulk comes out. Indiana Jones is a good, solid, summer blockbuster, but there's nothing exceptional about it so the other good, solid, summer blockbusters are just going to steamroll right over it.
Reagen Sulewski: You're all missing that a lot of this drop was due to the inflation of the Memorial Day weekend. Its week to week drops are going to level out from here, plus the summer weekdays are about to kick in. It'll pace Iron Man's weekly totals from here on out. It's really going to depend on week three, but it's far too early to call this yet.
David Mumpower: I completely agree with Reagen. Kim put the tell-tale signs in the original question. It has matched the pace of At World's End and will go ahead of it around Wednesday of this week. So, the line of demarcation we have for it is that a total in excess of Pirates 3's $309.4 million should be expected. Given that Iron Man isn't there yet, it's far too early to cede the crown to either one. Last week, I liked Indy's chances a bit better. At this moment, I see it as a pure coin flip, a race situation in poker if you will.
Calvin Trager: Kim, if you already knew the answer, why did you ask the question?!
David Mumpower: Her favorite movie is Entrapment.
Kim Hollis: I just like asking things!
Reagen Sulewski: And gratuitous butt shots of Catherine Zeta-Jones.