Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 10, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: You Don't Mess With the Zohan opened to $38.5 million this weekend. If you're Sony would you consider this result good, bad or about average?
Les Winan: I would think that $40 million for a movie with a bizarre title about a Israeli soldier turned hairdresser qualifies as a major success, even if it does star Adam Sandler.
Max Braden: $40 million is a strong opening even in the era of $100+ million openers. But even taking into account the summer season, Zohan had a larger debut than Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro managed to pull in over its entire run in March and April. I'd call that a very good result if I were Sony.
Joel Corcoran: You can't argue with a $40 million opening weekend. It's a good, solid, eminently profitable result. Zohan may not have a big enough run to justify releasing a sequel in theaters, but there's enough of a niche audience to justify a direct-to-DVD release if Adam Sandler agrees to it. And the way his career has stagnated over the past few films, a direct-to-DVD release might be pretty attractive in the future.
Tim Briody: We clearly haven't learned that you don't mess with the friggin' Zohan. This is outstanding and I attribute it entirely to the "foot uppercut" bit from the ads. Comedy gold!
Kim Hollis: I thought this was going to be a sub-$30 million opener, so I would definitely say that Sony should be pleased with where it ended up. I'm a Sandler fan, and there was absolutely nothing in the trailers or commercials that made me want to see the movie. With that said, however, hearing Sandler on the Dan Patrick show on Friday totally made me think, "Isn't he charming? Let's go see his movie."
David Mumpower: I am not certain what Joel meant above about Sandler's career stagnating since it's not at all, but I think that this is exactly the sort of result Sony expected. As John Hamann points out in the Weekend Wrap-Up, Sandler's openings are so consistent we can set our watches by them. The rate of decline of his audience in terms of ticket sales always seems to directly counter ticket price inflation, leaving him in the $35-$40 million range for all his major comedy releases. It's uncanny.
Call him Mr. Reliable.
Kim Hollis: Are you surprised at how consistent Adam Sandler is and that audiences haven't tired of his act by now?
Max Braden: There's always a new class of young males to buy his act. On the other hand, Will Ferrell's ability to draw them in may be waning, and I'll be really surprised if Mike Myers can do it with The Love Guru. Sandler is 41 and still seems to be going strong; by this age, Eddie Murphy had transitioned into kid-friendly films.
Joel Corcoran: I don't know if Adam Sandler's recent history demostrates consistency or stagnation. It seems like he's reached a plateau in his comedic work. He's popular enough to do yeoman's work in decent comedy films, but he's no longer considered edgy or original enough to sustain a comedy blockbuster like Anchorman or Superbad. So he needs to branch out into more dramatic work like Robin Williams did and return to doing films like Spanglish, or he needs to solidify his place in "family friendly comedies" like Eddie Murphy did when he transitioned to Dr. Doolittle, The Nutty Professor, and Shrek. And I don't think most people are tired of Adam Sandler films for the same reasons that most people aren't tired of food from Applebee's or Red Robin. The menu may change from time to time, the food isn't exceptional or worth critical acclaim, but you know you're going to get a pretty decent meal with each visit.
Tim Briody: I can't freaking believe it's been 10 years since The Waterboy. But yeah, I think he's learned overtime what works and what doesn't (see: Little Nicky. better yet, don't.) with his core audience and that's why he's been as consistent as they come with his comedies.
Kim Hollis: I think Sandler is probably one of the smartest guys in the business. He knows precisely what works with his dedicated audience and does whatever it takes to tap into that market. Sometimes it means sacrificing real quality, and I think he accepts that, but he's also balancing that with some other, smaller-scale projects. He's also covering the family fare people here have mentioned with Bedtime Stories this Christmas. And as for Joel's comment that he's not anchoring blockbusters like Anchorman and Superbad, I think it bears noting that Anchorman earned $28.4 million in its opening weekend and Superbad earned $33.1 million. Zohan kills both, and Judd Apatow already has a planned film starring Sandler, which is probably a guaranteed hit.
David Mumpower: Sandler's career is easily explained once we accept the fact that every time a 14-year-old turns 15 and outgrows this style of humor, another nine-year-old boy is turning ten, thereby becoming "grown up" enough to be the new target audience for the next five years. The only solution here is clear. We must eliminate all small children.
James D. Ruccio: This is the biggest surprise of the summer so far for me. I thought Sandler was finished as a headlining actor in a goofy, male oriented film. If you look at his box office, I'd argue that his last comparable movie was Mr. Deeds just under five years ago.
I don't know for sure but I suspect that comedians now, especially SNL spawned, have a handful of successful movies in them before they lose their draw or move onto other things be they production companies or variety in movie choices.
I was right in Sandler's core demo ten years ago and thought he was very creative and funny (a view I no longer share. I think very few of his movies hold up) but I was aghast at the trailer. When you have to resort to Smelly Feet jokes you know your comedy tank has run utterly dry.
I tend to think I have a good handle on why most movies do the business they do but this one leaves me very puzzled. I won't be able to handle it if "The Love Guru" does even half the business...
People have had enough of shoes.
Kim Hollis: Sex and the City fell 63% to $21.2 million this weekend. Is its total of $99.2 million more, less or about where you expected it to be after last weekend's shocking results?
Max Braden: I expected better holdover from audiences who hadn't seen it last weekend. But if it had a more normal Friday based on its first Sunday take, the dropoff might have been closer to 50%. 27 Dresses had that dropoff and went on to a total gross well over 3.5 times its opening weekend. Sex and the City could creep up to the $150 million line by the end of its run.
Joel Corcoran: The result wasn't as good as I expected, but it's still going to have a very good run. Like Max, I expected a much better holdover, and I also thought it might get a lot more repeat viewers. So a 63% decline is a bit sharper than I anticipated, but I'll go further out on a limb than Max: I think Sex and the City will finish the year with a higher box office take than Horton Hears a Who (which currently stands at $152.8 million). I'll bet that audiences will come back to this movie in a couple weeks as an alternative to the string of super-mega-blockbuster-action-movies coming over the horizon.
Tim Briody: I was figuring a monumental 65% or so since it was clearly a one-night wonder at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if it equaled that next weekend, though.
Kim Hollis: This type of massive drop is precisely what I expected. Like Tim, I see it continuing to freefall in weeks to come.
David Mumpower: I had predicted this sort of behavior last week, so I cannot pretend to be surprised by it now. The one aspect of this I would like to point out is that $22.8 million is what many people had predicted to be its first weekend total. Making that type of money on weekend two is yet another example of how wonderfully this title has performed relative to expectations.
Let's go to the movies instead of buying milk!
Kim Hollis: After the financial disasters of Speed Racer and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, we appeared to be headed for a rough summer. Given that the last three new openers have all exceeded expectations, are you feeling less doom and gloom about the recession's impact on the box office?
Max Braden: I see some highlights ahead but just as many shaky possibilities. I think the recession will continue to be reflected in the rich vs. poor results this summer.
Joel Corcoran: I think the recession will cut both ways at the box office. Going to the movies is still less expensive than a lot of other entertainment options, so people looking for an entertainment experience will still go to the multiplex. A lot of people are being forced to give up the weekend option of "dinner and a movie" and, instead, choose dinner or a movie. But people who have to tighten their budgets and more stringently prioritize spending are going to be much more discerning about where they're spending that precious discretionary income. I think we're going to see good movies continue to meet or exceed expectations, but the crappy movies are going to be harshly punished at the box office. And as long as studios continue to put out good films that people want to see in theaters, I think Hollywood will weather the recession nicely.
Tim Briody: Kim, the two examples you cited don't really fly with me. I know most of you enjoyed Speed Racer, but it was always Bad Idea Jeans in my mind and audiences agreed. Prince Caspian was a serious tactical mistake by Walden Media, by overestimating both the amount of people familiar with the books beyond The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe and giving it a dumb May release date. We've got two films threatening $300 million and it's the first weekend in May. What doom and gloom?
Kim Hollis: I think we've seen it proven out over the last few weeks that well-marketed, demographically targeted films are going to do well regardless of people's financial situation at the moment. Movies still provide escape from the drudgery of the daily world, and I think that we might actually see people embrace them as a legitimate entertainment option since vacations are starting to be out of the question.
David Mumpower: The last time this subject was broached, I stated my concerns about the economy and the changing nature of movie delivery in the current marketplace. Since then, none of the titles being mentioned has surprised me save for the relatively unheralded The Strangers. Otherwise, movies have made largely what I had expected them to make. So, I'm still standing behind what I said last week and will do again next weekend after The Hulk has blown up and The Happening has bombed.