Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
June 17, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Is M. Night Shyamalan ever coming back from the career slump he is in or do you believe he is permanently damaged goods?
Shane Jenkins: I suspect this may be the last movie for awhile where they try to use his name to sell tickets. When word of mouth gets out about The Happening, his name is going to be the e. coli of suspense movies.
I think Night's best bet is to follow the Woody Allen model. Allen was stuck in a rut for a decade or so, and couldn't drum up any interest in his projects. He finally stepped out of his comfort zone with Match Point, and the trailers barely mentioned his name at all. That movie made many reconsider what Allen was capable of. I think Night needs his own Match Point - low on hype and outsized promises, but with a sneaky curveball to the gut. His P.T. Barnum act ain't cutting it anymore.
Tim Briody: His next project is apparently an adaptation of Avatar: The Last Airbender, which is a hit Nickelodon animated program. This is absolutely perfect for him, because as far as his original projects go, it's becoming pretty clear that he was a one-trick-pony who then got lucky two more times (or three, depending on how you felt about The Village).
Max Braden: He's only damaged himself by directing his own stories. His ability to repeatedly hook audiences with his stories demonstrates a crucial awareness of what appeals to audiences, and he's obviously the type of person who wants to keep trying even without studio support. He will hit and miss in the future, but I wouldn't apply the word permanent to his career either way.
Reagen Sulewski: Shyamalan is damaged goods until he learns that he is not the be all and end all of cinema.
Kim Hollis: He's Uwe Boll-like to me at this point, exhibiting no comprehension of what it is that people are criticizing about his films. His next film, Airbender, will target a completely different audience. If the studio is smart, they won't be marketing it as an M. Night Shyamalan film (see: the Wachowskis and Speed Racer). Of course, it's not helping matters any that he's going around yapping about how Airbender is going to be his Star Wars.
David Mumpower: Oh, I fully believe they will be his Star Wars...prequels. All of us at BOP have carped on how incongruous Shyamalan's behavior has been regarding The Happening. He would talk as if he were about to present Citizen Kane then he would show clips whose cinematic ancestor appeared to be Plan 9 from Outer Space. I fail to see how he overcomes his current circumstances if he is that far gone. You cannot fix a problem until you acknowledge its existence. The odd analogy I would make is that a few pro wrestlers develop a self-delusion where they become their fake characters. Goldberg was notorious for this. At some point, reality blurred for him to the point that he forgot what he was doing was make-believe. Shyamalan has become that sort of mark for his own skills, thereby causing him to miss the unmistakable fact that they are in dramatic decline.
Jim Van Nest: I touched on it in the last topic, but I'd wager that Avatar will hardly use his name in its marketing. Honestly though, it really doesn't need to have a name to focus on. The title is plenty. Avatar is a huge hit in our house and has been for a while now. It's one of the few cartoons/animated series that my wife and I will routinely sit down and watch with our kids. Adding Shayamalan's name to the title or focusing on it in the advertising, unfortunately, will only draw people away from Avatar. This is for a couple reasons. The first being the horrible reviews his last two or three films have received and the fact that he is best known for The Sixth Sense, which isn't exactly family fare. If they play Avatar right, it may not be Night's Star Wars, but it could easily be his Spy Kids.
Po is still Kung Fu Fighting
Kim Hollis: Kung Fu Panda fell only 44% to $33.6 million. Given its running total of $117.3 million, do you think it can reach Madagascar's final domestic box office of $193.1 million to become DreamWorks' most successful non-Shrek title?
Shane Jenkins: I think it's going to have a great week coming up as pretty much all the kids are out of school by now. I don't know anyone who has seen it that hasn't loved it - kid or adult. Kung Fu Panda is so much wittier and prettier than Madagascar, that I have to believe word-of-mouth and its sheer quality will win out in the end.
Tim Briody: It's going to be pretty close, but it's only got one more weekend before WALL-E becomes the number one choice for families and the drops increase. If it gets some strong weekdays in between now and then, it can do it.
Max Braden: I don't think it should have any problem passing $200 million, even given WALL-E's presence in the market.
Kim Hollis: I think $200 million is a little ambitious, but I do see it coming very close to equalling or beating Madagascar. It has a chance to hold up really well next week, though we've seen proof in the past that direct competition like WALL-E should knock a large amount of wind out of its sails.
David Mumpower: I just ran the numbers on this, and my current expectation is final box office of roughly $182 million. What this means is I believe it will fall just short, but if it sustains well in the face of WALL-E, it could very well become the best non-Shrek DreamWorks release in terms of domestic revenue. It's already there in terms of quality.
We...hate feet.
Kim Hollis: You Don't Mess with the Zohan fell a steep 57% to $16.4 million. Should we focus more on the fact that its 10-day total is mediocre for a Sandler film or is this still a solid result for Sony?
Reagen Sulewski: A 57% drop is bad news for any film, even a goofy Adam Sandler comedy. It seems like unless his films look Razzie bad (ie Little Nicky), you're always going to get the die-hards, but you can't guarantee on them sticking around for week 2.
Shane Jenkins: Yeah, I'd guess the number of people interested in seeing Adam pad his crotch and mack on 70 year-old women is pretty finite.
Kim Hollis: I'm not at all surprised by this drop. Sandler's fans seem to be getting to the point where they run right out to see his stuff and then drop off pretty quickly. It'll be a huge DVD hit, though.
David Mumpower: This one is barely going to crack $100 million, making a less than stellar performance for an Adam Sandler comedy. Then again, it would be a huge hit for almost anyone else. Everything's relative.