Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 1, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Wanted, the nihilist action film from Universal, earned a surprising $50.9 million. How did the studio achieve such a strong result?
Reagen Sulewski: LOUD NOISES!
Les Winan: Well, Kim, it seems like Universal advertised the movie for what it is: loud fun that doesn't go any deeper than what you see. Reviewers seemed to like it for that same reason and it seems like audiences were interested in seeing on screen a taste of what it must be like to hang out with Angelina Jolie in real life. Random knifeplay, blood and general mayhem.
Joel Corcoran: I think Les pretty much summarizes it. James McAvoy isn't hard to look at either, so watching two attractive people engaged in random violence and mayhem is an added bonus. And Morgan Freeman does bring a touch of gravitas to keep it interesting. But let's be serious - this was pretty much the best parts of the Matrix trilogy condensed into two hours without a lot of burdensome "story" and "context." However, I'd still much rather see a movie adaptation that's true to the graphic novel.
Tim Briody: Yeah, but they fail to mention that along with the cool parts of hanging out with Angelina Jolie, there's also Brad Pitt hovering around and a whole lotta kids. Damn Hollywood always hides the truth.
Daron Aldridge: Wanted succeeds by giving its core audience exactly what they want and have been denied so far this summer. This is a loud, kinetic and effects-laden action movie that offers an alternate, extraordinary reality and has been described as style over substance, similar to Transformers last year. This time around we get Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy bending the laws of physics instead of Autobots and Decepticons.
Scott Lumley: I hand this result over to a combination of Angelina Jolie, a well-crafted marketing campaign, excellent counter-programming and just good timing. The only other actioner around right now is the Incredible Hulk, and despite its excellence, audiences are just not connecting with the big green dude. Wanted offers lots of gunplay, insane stunts and a sweaty, tattooed Andelina Jolie wandering around naked. Who doesn't want to see that? This is eye candy at its finest. It's the polar opposite to WALL-E and that's fine.
David Mumpower: Wanted's success struck me as a foregone conclusion the instant the trailer was aired during the Super Bowl. I am a bit surprised tracking was so low, although it's just another instance of tracking failing studios and exhibitors this summer. Wanted is a spiritual predecessor to Mr. & Mrs. Smith, so it played out like a sequel of sorts in terms of opening weekend box office.
Jason Lee: Wachowskis take note: THIS is how you successfully sell a movie based on extrodinary sights and new forms of visual storytelling. I honestly think that the product sold itself and all Universal had to do was to give people a taste of what they'd get. It promised a thrilling time, it delivered a thrilling time and found success at the box-office on the backs of its target audience. It's ALMOST the Pixar model of filmmaking, re-purposed for an R-rated graphic novel adaptation. (Now let's all recoil in horror at the idea of Pixar making Wanted 2).
Anti-hero vs. Anti-hero on July 4th. That seems...wrong.
Kim Hollis: Going into the 4th of July weekend where it will directly compete against another anti-superhero movie, do you have any concern about Wanted's legs?
Tim Briody: I never thought it'd have any in the first place. Word-of-mouth is pretty lousy and it's just a movie of money shots, which were all given away in the trailer. Even if Hancock wasn't around the corner, it'd be in freefall next weekend anyway.
Joel Corcoran: Legs? What legs? The only legs this film will have are Angelina Jolie's in a side-slit dress.
Michael Bentley: Joel, I'm now envisioning a new commercial for Wanted. A voiceover: "Thinking of seeing Hancock this weekend?" Then the screen just shows Angelina's long legs, as she slowly hikes up her side-slit dress. "Think again."
Kevin Chen: I wouldn't have even considered these movies in the same category without this question. Hancock's trailer pushes comedy, while Wanted was clearly about the action and special effects. Which is a moot point anyway, because Joel is absolutely right.
Reagen Sulewski: We are nearing the day where a film will have a 1.0 multiplier. I think Wanted will be viewed as a vanguard in this process.
David Mumpower: I too see Wanted's legs as Hulk-ly. As Tim has indicated, this movie is just like a comedy where the three good jokes are in the trailer. The only interesting action takes place in the commercials. I expect word-of-mouth to wipe it out.
Brandon Scott: Wanted shot like a speeding bullet out of the BO gate at a rate faster than just about anyone anticipated. But do I see people wanting to see this pic as much in the coming weeks? Not quite. Yes, I am concerned that this will be a rapidly declining film as there are still several big summer movies soon to drop in similar genres or vying for similar audiences, see Hancock and Dark Knight. That being said, with a negative cost of about $65 million, this is assured of being a financial success right out of the gate and Variety was reporting even prior to its release that a Wanted sequel was already being discussed. So, I see shorter legs for the film, but a potential spawning of at least a mini-franchise nevertheless.
Jason Lee: Call me crazy, but I do not think that the audience for Wanted is the same audience that's excited about seeing Hancock. It seems to me that the former is male action enthusiasts and the latter is a broader reach into adults and families. That said, if you're asking whether or not I think Wanted will deliver a drop better than 55%, my answer is "no."
Sean Collier: Wanted's audience is proving to be diverse, but decidedly adult. With Sex and the City (finally) and The Happening (thankfully) on the way out, Wanted is the R-rated film of choice for the foreseeable future. Hancock and its PG-13 rating should skew a little younger and more mainstream; I'd wager that Wanted is fairly safe until its slaughtered by The Dark Knight. As an interesting aside, I work at a movie theater, and a surprising number of elderly couples have been showing up for Wanted, for no reason I can determine. A few of them asked "Which is the one with Morgan Freeman?" I suppose this is residual love from The Bucket List, or something, but I can't help but wonder if any of these septugenarians saw the trailer.
Scott Lumley: Let's be frank here. The general perception about Wanted is not that it's a superhero film. It's being perceived as an action film. It's hitting a demographic that is not being particularly well served at the moment and that alone is going to carry it farther than it normally would. Wanted is never going to hang with Pixar, and it might get slapped around by Hancock a bit, but this has an angle that nothing else is offering right now with the exception possibly of Get Smart, and that's being perceived as a comedy, not an action film. It's going to have average legs for a summer film, which is to say, monster drops after the second week and out of theatres in six to eight weeks.
Daron Aldridge: The rating and audience appeal will be bigger factors for its legs than Hancock. Wanted doesn't appear to have as much crossover for non-action film fans. Hancock has a broader appeal thanks to Will Smith and his media mastery. The man promoted the film on The Colbert Report, for heaven's sake, which is a true rarity for that show with 90% of its guests being authors or politicians. The redemptive element of Hancock, which has been included in every ad, signals that it will probably be more straightforward of a story, where the anti-hero makes the right choice to change his ways, unlike the actionfest of Wanted.
With two $50 million plus openers, Get Smart's drop was never going to be the story
Kim Hollis: Get Smart fell 48% to $20.2 million this weekend, giving it a running total of $77.5 million after ten days. Is this better, worse or about where you expected the movie to be at this point in its release?
Joel Corcoran: It's much better than I expected. Given that almost every other movie this summer has demonstrated a 60-65% drop over from opening weekend to the next, any movie that falls less than 50% is pretty damn impressive.
Michael Bentley: A bit worse, actually. The movie just seems to ooze fun, so initially I thought that this would be the breakthrough hit of the summer, the movie that hangs around into late August, but that isn't the case.
Reagen Sulewski: I'm a little surprised at this, because like Michael said, if any film was going to buck the trend with adults, it would be this one. It's goofy, light-hearted fare that should have been perfect to make a long run. That said, it's still headed to be one of the biggest hits of the summer.
David Mumpower: $75 million is in fact what I had predicted its ten-day total would be, so I guess it has marginally exceeded expectations. The real test will be if it gets any sort of bump over the July 4th period. That's the difference in it making $115 million as opposed to $130 million.
Brandon Scott: I am surprised by Get Smart's box office numbers, but perhaps I should feel stupid for thinking this way. Carell still seems like an iffy proposition at the turnstyles, what with Evan Almighty struggling so badly last year. However, when you throw The Rock into the pot along with Anne Hathaway, the results have been stronger than I would have initially guessed. Its decline seems fine at nearly 50% and with a budget estimated at $80 million, it's still a success.
Jason Lee: Considering its moderate opening weekend, the average reviews and the fact that it's not really a "special" film when the marketplace is a saturated with more exciting offerings (like the aforementioned WALL-E and Wanted), Warner Bros. has to be pleased that the drop was under 50%. I've never thought of this film as being able to do anything beyond $110 - $120 million, so the fact that it's on track to hit those numbers is pretty much what I expected.
Daron Aldridge: More importantly, Warner Bros. has to be happy that after ten days, box office receipts almost match the production budget. This is especially for a TV remake with no A-list box office draws that could guarantee big opening numbers. For Carell, it looks like he will have a new top grossing film with him as the lead. I couldn't be happier for him.