Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 7, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Hancock opened to $103.4 million this week, including $62.6 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. What do you make of this result?
Joel Corcoran: I'm not quite sure what to make of the result other than Will Smith in a leading role just about guarantees at least $50 million on the opening weekend. This movie had weak reviews, a disjointed marketing campaign, and a mish-mash of storylines. Yet it also had a unique premise, a great cast, and the image of Hancock as the "lone superman" the world is a salient metaphor for the USA's role as a lone superpower. I may not be wholly accurate here, but with so many conflicting qualities, I'm surprised the movie has already launched itself into the top ten earners of the year.
Pete Kilmer: July 4th is Big Willie Weekend. Put him in a popcorn flick on this date and he OWNS this weekend.
Max Braden: Yawn. Twelve years ago he made $50 and $96 million on the same five-day period with Independence Day. Now, if you had Hancock and Iron Man team up in a movie to stop Zod from snatching the deed to the Garden of Eden, *then* we'd have numbers to talk about.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't know that he did necessarily own this weekend - certainly not after Wild Wild West and Men in Black II called his blockbuster chops into question. Hancock is a definite step up from those two - in quality, if nothing else - but it almost feels like this was a bit of a missed opportunity for Warner Bros. People seemed to cool on it as they got closer to release, with the idea of "Oh yeah, I guess I still want to see that, it's July 4th, right?" Give it up for conditioning, I suppose.
Jason Lee: I think everyone at Sony has to be very, very pleased. Though Hancock didn't exceed most industry expectations, consider this: 2008 is already halfway over and Sony JUST NOW has their first film to cross the $100 mark this year.
Daron Aldridge: Based upon what I have heard, which ranged from the atrocious like Scott Lumley described in his review to mere disappointment that it didn't live up to the crowd-pleasing expectations of Smith's films, I wasn't surprised at all. When you throw in the July 4th on a Friday that John Hamann has analyzed in his recap and the fair to poor word-of-mouth, Sony should be thankful for that number.
Scott Lumley: At this point, I can only assume Will Smith has made a pact with Satan. I don't understand how such uniformly terrible reviews and such an underwhelming movie result in such eye popping numbers. How is it in this summer of fantastic superhero films, it's *THIS* film that absolutely rocks its opening weekend? Go see The Incredible Hulk, people!
D. James Ruccio: I think Will Smith himself is undeniably part of the draw but I think there are several other factors that contributed to Hancock's success. I think he has aligned himself with talented people, has a keen eye for picking good projects and has the benefit of opening his blockbuster films on the July 4th Weekend. I think he's tremendously talented, with more acting range than people still give him credit for and has a persona that is uncommonly likable for movie stars, but I don't think people necessarily hear about his new project and rush out to see it because he's in it.
Brandon Scott: Will Smith is the biggest star in America, hands down. While some pundits had thought Hancock might fly towards the $150 million mark over the five-day stretch initially, there is no way to be disappointed by this result. As the third superhero flick already of the summer season, it still managed to avoid public burnout. Also, with the holiday falling on a Friday, many film-goers had other things, well, going on. Like a freight train to Hancock's body, a triple digit result over this period is very solid.
David Mumpower: I am a lot more positive about this result than the many of the rest of you seem to be. Given how dark the tone has been in the Hancock trailers, I think crossing $100 million in five days is pretty damned impressive. This was a very tricky sell for Sony, but the marketing team came through.
Choose your answer wisely or Hancock might break down your walls.
Kim Hollis: Hancock is Will Smith's fifth July 4th release to debut at #1. Do you expect it to be more of a Men in Black/Independence Day or more of a Men in Black II/Wild Wild West from here on out?
Scott Lumley: This is going to be a Men in Black II result. Will's popularity is carrying this movie, but it doesn't bear repeat viewings and I think word is getting out that this film is a solid 'Meh.'
Daron Aldridge: I'm going with MIB II with about a $200 million total. It will take a better product to reach the heights of mid- to late-'90s Will Smith July totals. Working at a theater during the years of ID4 and the first MIB, it just seemed more like an experience with many repeat viewings than today's movie-going. I'd also argue that Will Smith benefited more from Independence Day (the movie) than vice versa.
Pete Kilmer: Hancock will be much more of a Wild Wild West kind of thing for him. The word-of-mouth is really mixed on it, as people either love it or hate it. There's not much in between.
Tim Briody: In Fresh Prince speak, I believe the proper phrase to use here is "yo Holmes, smell ya later!" To which I mean it's going to collapse pretty darn hard fast. But it'll be over $200 million before it's done.
Joel Corcoran: I think we should just forget Hancock and start looking for trailers for Seven Pounds and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
David Mumpower: Someone would have to start filming The Trial of the Chicago 7 for that to happen. It got delayed indefinitely due to the strike and Spielberg's hectic shooting schedule.
Max Braden: I keep looking at Tim's $200 million number and jumping to devil vs. angel responses. On one hand, this is Will Smith in July, so it feels like it would be a big bomb not to reach $200 million. And Indiana Jones didn't have great reviews and still made it over the $300 million mark. But Indiana opened with a three-day weekend of $100 million. Hancock is probably closer to last year's July 4th opener, Transformers, which had a $70 million three-day (with that long runup to the weekend) and finished the holiday weekend at $150 million. Sadly (because I liked the movie) I'm going to have to agree with Tim.
Reagen Sulewski:I really think there's a middle ground here. There's a tendency to turn things into Iron Man or Speed Racer, and while that's often the dichotomy, it doesn't have to be. Hancock feels like a film that's going to just sort of chug along, make a sizable but not spectacular amount of money and play on TBS (heavily edited!) for years to come.
D. James Ruccio: I completely agree with Reagen. I think it plays right down the middle. I think the mixed word-of-mouth will kill its chance to be a huge Will Smith blockbuster. Also working against it is the uneven ad campaign which was all over the map. I don't think people had or still have a true sense of what this picture is about.
Jason Lee: Count me in the "MIB II/WWW" camp on this one. The reviews have been bad, the word-of-mouth has been bad and the "twist" was "The Village"-esque. I would imagine a pretty hefty Sunday-to-Monday drop, which will of course portend worse things to come.
David Mumpower: Relative to expectations six months ago, I think Hancock is already a winner for Sony. This production has been a struggle since day one due to the troubling subject matter. Everyone was freaked out by the (now deleted) statutory rape scene, and just a couple of weeks ago, people were speculating this could bomb relative to Will Smith standards.
Calvin Trager: What would the final tally need to be for Hancock to be considered a box office disappointment - under $200 million?
Les Winan: Wouldn't under $200 million be a bomb by Will Smith standards?
David Mumpower: Out of his recent films, only I Am Legend exceeded $200 million. Everything he's done since Ali (in 2001) has earned at least $138 million domestically, though. His range is usually around $165 million, a number Hancock will easily clear.
Xenu has proclaimed it to be so.
Kim Hollis: Will Smith has had eight straight films debut at #1. Why does he get the benefit of the doubt no one else in the industry does?
Tim Briody: Since his initial Men In Black/Independence Day 1-2 punch, it's been a collection of sequels and mostly smart choices, with only Bagger Vance as an outright flop. And seriously, if you told me 15 years ago that The Fresh Prince would be the biggest movie star in the world for the rest of the decade and the entirety of the aughts, I would have laughed hysterically for hours.
Joel Corcoran: I think Tim is right, but let's not overlook the fact that Will Smith is a fine actor capable of performing well in a variety of roles. He's one of those few actors out there who can easily transition from comedic thriller to intense drama and back again.
Pete Kilmer: Will Smith has the kind of goodwill with the public that Tom Hanks had a few years ago. He's made films that people have FUN at...and he's made serious movies that people really get invested in. Sure, he's had a couple of flops along the way, but his record is pretty spotless. And the fact that he goes back to music every now and then and keeps in touch with that audience helps as well.
Daron Aldridge: There are two possibilities here: Pact with the devil or being a very likable, nonthreatening personality that hasn't done anything to alienate the public. (Yes, I am looking at you, Thomas Cruise Mapother IV. Curse you for poisoning the box office of MI:III.) It is reminiscent of '90s and early 2000s Tom Hanks when people just liked to see him in movies.
Scott Lumley: He's a likable, funny, talented guy and he has little to no outstanding social problems. Everyone likes him and he's never given us a reason not to. (Wild Wild West notwithstanding...)
Jason Lee: Will Smith is a bona fide box office star who's never given audiences a reason to dislike or distrust him. He doesn't jump on Oprah's couches, he doesn't sleep around and he doesn't let his politics speak louder than his films. In the absence of controversy, people remember him for the movies they love.
Brandon Scott: Big Willie's hip-hop roots have firmly planted him in the consciousness of anyone under 35. As Jason mentioned, he hasn't displayed any couch jumping antics, despite a recent media push hinting that he may be a Scientologist. He is always seen smiling in public and has a solid family man rep. He has handled a variety of fare, from dramas to action films, to critical acclaim and commercial success, across the board. His persona smacks of a certain politician currently running for President. He has gone from Rap's Fresh Prince to Box Office King in about two decades time.
Max Braden: Tom Cruise has a similar record for his action roles. Mostly it's the right man for the right job. But unlike Cruise and even Mel Gibson, Smith hasn't contracted the crazy-eyed intensity of someone who's trying too hard. He has an attitude of someone, as Pete said, like Hanks, who is very approachable.
David Mumpower: Oddly, I think that movie-goers take note of the fact that even if Will Smith's movies are not the best, they are still going to get Will Smith being himself in them (for the most part). As long as he has stayed in roles such as these, audiences feel comfortable buying what is being sold. It's when he has gone out on a limb in titles such as Ali and The Legend of Bagger Vance that he got in trouble.