Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
July 22, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Mamma Mia! opened to $27.7 million. What do you think of this result?
Max Braden: After hearing clips of Meryl Streep butcher the songs, I'm surprised it did that much. It's a small number, though, when you consider that ABBA was once offered $1 billion to reunite for a world tour. This probably doesn't mean we'll see a New Kids on the Block movie anytime soon.
David Mumpower: Last year when Hairspray was released, I chronicled how rarely a musical opens huge. For comparison, Dreamgirls debuted to $14.0 million, Moulin Rouge! made $13.7 million and Chicago brought in $10.8 million its first weekend in wide release. So, Mamma Mia! has made as much on opening weekend as Dreamgirls and Moulin Rouge! combined. That's pretty strong.
Brandon Scott: It's matched the ozone-destroying Hairspray's opening last year. This is a very good result and effective counter-programming to its fullest.
Tim Briody: I'm truly surprised how many people were willing to take a chance on Mamma Mia!
Shane Jenkins: It certainly raked in the Money Money Money!
David Mumpower: I loathe both of you ear worm-giving freaks.
Scott Lumley: I think as Americans (And Canadians), we need to take a stand against things. ABBA related musicals are one of these things. Sure, it did well against Batman. It's not something I ever really wanted to see in the first place. I'm certain it will make a nice profit and all, but I think going to see a musical in a movie theatre is like going to an Italian restaurant and ordering Pad Thai - kind of ridiculous.
Daron Aldridge: It met my expectations, which was that it would be similar to Hairspray. But wow, their opening weekends are almost identical. The lessons seems to be that for future musicals, when transferring a stage musical to film, keep the budget reasonably low and you can turn a nice profit quickly. Great job to Reagen for predicting this total within $500,000.
Jamie Ruccio: Given that it took in anywhere from $44 million to $52 million a year during all but two years of its Broadway run by selling anywhere from 8,000 to 13,000 seats a week, I'd say there was a built-in audience for Mamma Mia!. I know that my neighbor, who I can't imagine is into musicals let along musicals that featured ABBA, raved about it years ago.
Not everyone likes Batman. Or Jokers. Or super awesome action films.
Kim Hollis: Does Mamma Mia!'s opening weekend prove once and for all that effective counter-programming can be quite successful or did Universal just catch lightning in a bottle?
Sean Collier: If there's one story this weekend unrelated to The Dark Knight, this is it. Mamma Mia! was going to do well no matter what it was up against - it's a hugely popular musical among certain groups, and those groups (young girls and middle age to older women, mostly) usually turn out pretty well - see Dreamgirls or Hairspray. It does happen to be the only demographic that the Joker doesn't have a full lock on, but I see the result as mostly independent of The Dark Knight.
David Mumpower: I am a staunch supporter of the idea of counter-programming. I see what has happened this weekend with Mamma Mia! and The Dark Knight as eerily similar to what happened in May of 1999. Notting Hill debuted to $21.8 million ($30.6 million in 2008 dollars) against the second weekend of Star Wars: Episode One - The Phantom Menace, a movie some observers believed would swallow it whole. There are innumerable demographics in play at the box office each weekend. Just because a tentpole might be the fabled four quadrants title that appeals to everyone does not mean that another quality release simultaneously cannot find its own niche.
Joel Corcoran: I agree with David. You also have to look at the numbers, which I think supports his theory. The Dark Knight beat Spider-Man 3's opening weekend total by about $4 million, but it beat Spider-Man 3's opening day total by over $8 million. A lot of that first-day take was due to a huge number of midnight and very early morning showings. But you've got to wonder how many couples out there said "Okay, we'll go see Batman right when it opens, then we'll do dinner and Mama Mia! on Saturday night." Also, let's not overlook the fact that this was a brilliant piece of counter-programming (or maybe mutual programming) for us gay guys who grew up on Batman (I won't go into the obvious analogies), cried at Brokeback Mountain, adored Heath Ledger, and would do just about anything for front-row tickets to see Mama Mia! on Broadway.
Daron Aldridge: While this did pull a bigger number than Notting Hill as John mentioned in the recap, I believe this further proves it can work. It is not a fluke; it just takes the right product to draw those outside the big movie's core. Incidentally, both Notting Hill and Mamma Mia! were put out by Universal, so they seem to know how to do this.
But they were chimps! In space!
Kim Hollis: Space Chimps opened to a mere $7.2 million. Say something funny about Space Chimps.
Sean Collier: I work part-time at a movie theater. This weekend, when people asked for tickets for Space Chimps, I assumed they were kidding and just punched up Dark Knight tickets. The few that had to explain to me that they weren't kidding didn't seem all that surprised at my assumption, either. Also, I'd like to point out that the Dark Knight made more in the four minutes from 12:01 a.m. to 12:05 a.m. Friday that Space Chimps did all weekend.
Max Braden: Christopher Nolan should direct Pigs in Space to show 'em how it's done.
Shane Jenkins: Two opposable thumbs down for this performance.
Calvin Trager: Space Gimps would be more appropriate for this outcome.
Joel Corcoran: I don't think there is anything funny about Space Chimps, but the monkey sanctuary episode of Dirty Jobs was hilarious. Maybe Fox should've just hired Mike Rowe for a two-hour extended episode of that show.
Kevin Chen: Contrary to what you might expect, lack of gravity does not make flinging poo any more enjoyable.
Brandon Scott: Its box office made Eddie Murphy a Gumby-esqe green with envy. If you saw either of these films, I am laughing "at", not "with" you.
Daron Aldridge: "In Space Chimps, no one can hear you scream because the theater is empty." Wow, who signed off on the $37 million budget for this one? Someone now collecting unemployment, no doubt.
David Mumpower: This is bad news for a potential Astronauts Versus Cavemen movie project from Mutant Enemy. Fox made no money with a movie combining the two.
Tim Briody: That reminds me, it's been an hour or so since I've watched Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along Blog. See ya.
People, Hellboy loves kittens. What more do you need to know to convince you that seeing his movie is worthwhile?
Kim Hollis: Journey to the Center of the Earth fell 43%, Meet Dave fell 69% and Hellboy II: The Golden Army fell 71%. Which of these performances surprises/impresses/depresses you the most?
Shane Jenkins: Aw, poor Hellboy. I might not have loved his sequel, but it doesn't deserve to have a bigger drop-off than Meet Dave and Pluto Nash. Unless Universal's entire strategy was a "one good weekend and we're outta here" sort of thing, I think they made a really bad choice in release dates. They must have known it was going to get knee-capped this weekend, but I'm sure they didn't anticipate a drop of this magnitude. This was one slaughter even Red's right hand was defenseless against.
Pete Kilmer: I'm not really surprised that Hellboy dropped that much. It made its money and will do respectably when all is said and done with. I wish the drop had been under 60% though.
David Mumpower: As BOP chronicled in the Daily Numbers Analysis column, Hellboy II was clearly in trouble the instant Journey to the Center of the Earth started gaining on it during the week. There was $13 million in difference between their opening weekend totals (i.e. Hellboy earned roughly 62% more) yet the Brendan Fraser movie passed it on Thursday. Casual observers will shrug this off as Hellboy getting swallowed by Batman (slash fiction alert!), but the wheels had already come off by then.
Tim Briody: Hellboy's plummet notwithstanding, the staying power of Journey to the Center of the Earth is actually the most surprising to me, especially for something so gimmicky.
Daron Aldridge: I would add another word to the mix...elated. As in, I am elated that Meet Dave has already dropped from the top ten. Eddie Murphy, you brought this on yourself. I am depressed that Hellboy fell Hulk-sized proportions but my fingers are crossed that it may avoid further freefall now that Batman has opened.