Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
August 9, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Pineapple Express
The stoner comedy earned $7.9 million on Friday, after taking in $18.1 million on Wednesday and Thursday. After the very solid $12 million Wednesday. There is considerable frontloading here, especially since the Friday number is much closer to Thursday's earnings ($6 million) than Wednesday. That wasn't much of a rebound. Saturday will see an increase, but it also won't top Wednesday. Taking a quick look at the multipliers of the Harold and Kumar movies, White Castle had a 2.7 multiplier while Guantanamo Bay suffered a bit as a sequel with a 2.5. I'd normally give Pineapple Express a rather low internal multiplier, but Wednesday was where the frontloading was, not Friday so that will give it a somewhat higher than normal multiplier.
I see a weekend total of $21.8 million for Pineapple Express, which, with some clever rounding, gives it $21.8 million for the three-day weekend and $40 million in the five-day period.
[tm:4460_]The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2[/tm]
The other opener this week, the sequel to 2005's The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, cleverly titled The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, earned $3.9 million Friday after taking in $8.9 million in its first two days of release. It seems unlikely for this type of film, but there is certainly frontloading going on here as well, as the Friday take does not match the Wednesday opening figure of $5.7 million. In fact, it barely even tops the first Friday of the original, which was $3.6 million. I expect a similar multiplier trajectory as the first movie, which was 2.7. That would give The Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants 2 $10.5 million over the weekend and $19.4 million over five days.
[tm:3640_]The Dark Knight[/tm]
Not reliquishing the top spot for the weekend without a fight, The Dark Knight ends up in second on Friday with $7.6 million, off 40% from last Friday. That's awfully, awfully close to Pineapple Express, and considering holdovers (especially something like The Dark Knight) have much higher weekend multipliers than new releases, unless I have ridiculously underestimated the weekend multiplier for Pineapple Express, The Dark Knight will spend a fourth week in the top spot when the estimates roll in, with $25.5 million.
Notable Holdovers
[tm:3802_]The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor[/tm] falls 68% from last Friday, most likely driving the last nail into the coffin for that franchise. Expect $15.1 million in weekend two.
Meanwhile, in more successful [bp:768_]Brendan Fraser[/bp] films, [tm:3208_]Journey to the Center of the Earth[/tm] continues to surprise, offering by far the lowest drop in the top ten with 26%. With The Mummy faltering badly, there's a very good chance that this out-earns it. Scary, huh? Now in its fifth weekend, look for $5 million.