Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
August 19, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Tropic Thunder ended The Dark Knight's reign at #1 by earning $25.8 million in three days and $36.8 million in five days. Should Paramount/DreamWorks be pleased with this result?
Max Braden: I guess summer is over. I'd have expected twice that if it had been an early July release, and this was a big budget movie. It's almost better to be able to say they beat Pineapple Express than Batman.
Shane Jenkins: I'm with Max on this. Its original release date was July 11th, and I think being punted back a month might have halved its gross. I also suspect that Ben Stiller does not have a Michael Phelps poster hanging on his wall.
Reagen Sulewski: I doubt that sales of rope are up or anything, but it's a fairly mediocre result for a film that had starpower up the yin yang and one of the summer's hottest figures in a resurgent Robert Downey Jr. At the same time, Ben Stiller has been very hit or miss and a lot of his fame has come from films that showed impressive legs after the fact. So this may just be par for the course.
David Mumpower: I don't believe Paramount can or should be pleased with this result. They clearly pushed this title back in order to give it breathing room away from The Dark Knight while also hoping to coast off the new-found popularity of Robert Downey Jr. The end result is an opening on a par with Along Came Polly for a title that also features Kung Fu Panda and Iron Man. it should have done better. Period.
Jamie Ruccio: I don't think they should be disappointed. A quick glance at the opening box office history of the featured stars in it show that none of them have opened a film much beyond the $30 million mark that wasn't animated or an event film with some other larger draw. I think it performed exactly as marketed and for the given weekend. Although, if they did push it back because they were afraid that it was going to get run over by Dark Knight, they clearly didn't have confidence in the product nor heard of counter programming. I think there may have been some buzz amongst the movie Internet crowd...ahem...but that it didn't translate into a grand slam opening that some of us were expecting.
David Mumpower: Jamie, my counter to that is Tropic Thunder stars the lead actors in the #2 film of 2006 as well as the #2 and #6 movies of 2008. If you think the combination of that trio should lead to an opening of only $26 million, Dave Mason pegged it when he said we just disagree.
Brandon Scott: It would've opened much higher without the Olympics, since it played to a slightly older crowd and we were all paying attention to Michael Phelps and Team USA hoops. We were more interested in seeing records broken in the Olympics than at the box office, but with generally positive reviews, this should have a decent run and still has a shot at $100 million anyway. All of that being said, of course it's a bit of a letdown....CUT!
Daron Aldridge: Given the reported $90 million budget, they probably aren't overjoyed but if this can demonstrate decent legs, then it should make them happy in the end.
Jason Lee: Honestly, I think this should come at the lower ends of their expectations. This type of comedy has typically flourished in the month of August. Tropic Thunder is now the game show equivalent to "that guy who finally beat Ken Jennings on Jeopardy."
Satire unwelcome here.
Kim Hollis: Why is satire such a hard sell, while stuff like Date Movie, Meet the Spartans and various other Movie Movies seem to earn consistent amounts with each opening? Even as a satire, shouldn't a movie that stars Ben Stiller, Robert Downey Jr. and Jack Black have been primed for more?
Max Braden: A comedy like this that is heavy on the action should appeal to the Rush Hour audience even if it is satire. It could be that Pineapple Express took some of its audience, but I do think the lateness in the season affects it too.
Shane Jenkins: The general public really hates "insider" movies about Hollywood, almost as much as Hollywood loves making them. I thought Tropic Thunder could buck this trend, but apparently not. I think an interesting thesis could be written on the subject.
David Mumpower: I think Shane makes a strong point, but I am a bit demoralized by this turn of events. We had debated war movie oversaturation a while ago in MMQB. I also feel that's a factor here. A lot of people didn't want to see Hollywood lampoon any kind of war effort, which is unfortunate since the people skewered the most here are Hollywooders themselves. Robert Downey Jr.'s performance is the stuff of myth and legend.
Jerry Simpson: I disagree, I'd suggest that the Tropic opening is due more to the date than anything else. When it was planned to release on the Love Guru date, it would have made a lot more.
David Mumpower: The same used to be said of any August release date. It's almost never the day a title is released but instead the marketing of the title that determines its success.
Max Braden: Backlash against the marketing may have been a factor. Audiences may have been turned off by the black face and "retard" complaint at the last minute.
Sean Collier: There's an unfortunate cultural development unwinding in America, and it is this: many people believe that they're not supposed to laugh and think at the same time. Despite the best efforts of shows like The Office and 30 Rock and smart films like Little Miss Sunshine and Knocked Up, many people prefer their comedy broad, physical, and decidedly low-brow. Who or what to blame for this, I don't know (maybe Carlos Mencia,) but comedy with a brain and a heart may have to fly under the radar for a while.
Brandon Scott: Satire is often too high concept in many ways for the mainstream. Jay-Z said he had to "dumb it down for his audience to double his dollars," and the same is sadly often true for the movie-going public. People don't want to think when watching their comedies. It's often hard for an audience to differentiate between a movie that is stupid for stupid's sake or just plain stupid.
Daron Aldridge: For satire vs. spoof, all we need to do is refer to the prophetic wisdom of The Simpsons at the Springfield Film Festival..."Man getting hit in the crotch with football." If you need further proof, consider the 18 seasons of America's Funniest Home Videos. America simply prefers slapstick and banal sight gags to satire.
Jason Lee: SATIRE is a hard sell because it demands intelligence. The assorted (Insert Film Genre Name Here) Movies have succeeded because they have no such IQ prerequisite.
Points and laughs. Ha ha!
Kim Hollis: Star Wars: The Clone Wars failed to clone the success of live action Star Wars films, earning a paltry $14.6 million. Why did this title fail so dramatically?
Max Braden: Aside from the Easter Island cubist artistry, the story looked to me like a replay of the most recent live action prequels. If I want to see that, I'll just - gulp - watch Eps 1-3 again.
Marty Doskins: I think not having a live action film in this series (or probably any series) is a hard sell to anyone but the most devoted fanboy. I don't think you get the idea that this was actually a film that belonged with the others to help flesh out the story between movies. I would guess that most people thought this was a children's movie using the characters from the Star Wars series (like the Ewoks TV series). My own kids even questioned me about this. They enjoyed Episodes 1, 2, and 3. When I told them this was a movie that went with the others, all they could say was "Oh. That doesn't look very good." And as Max suggested, took out the DVDs of Episodes 1, 2, and 3 and watched them again.
Shane Jenkins: Looks like everyone caught on to the fact that this was just a commercial for the upcoming TV show.
David Mumpower: This was a nearly impossible sell, even to George Lucas' brain-slaves. This is a story idea that had already been given away for free on Cartoon Network. The only thing the marketing department had going for them was the thought process that some fans felt those cartoons were better than either of the first two prequels. Once early reviews came out and were mixed, the entire project was torpedoed. Frankly, this again speaks to the arrogance of Lucas that he would once again ask for fans to pay to see something like this, given how much he has failed them in recent years. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised by the passion displayed toward The Force Unleashed's upcoming release, given all of this. Perhaps that is the market that should have been targeted better, but the folks at Lucas Ranch clearly are running out of suckers to repeatedly rob.
Jamie Ruccio: I think that it was simply the fact that this product appealed to a small niche and once those people turned on it, it was utterly doomed. It's a proven fact, nothing travels faster than the scorn of a Internet fanboy spurned. And as to David's point regarding "The Forced Unleashed," I've heard very little about it; however, what I have heard took great pains to delicately suggest that they've been given "creative freedom". That they explored in more depth the powers available to someone who is a tremendous power in the ways of The Force. They of course always followed it up with something like, "all of this had George Lucas' blessing" or "under George Lucas' general guidance". I can't wait for someone to get a hold of the Sequel Trilogy and turn them into serious works for adults...There's too much money for someone not to. Episode 7-9 will happen. Let's hope they don't stink.
Marty Doskins: Didn't we talk about this a litle while ago? People that used to have a big draw just because of their name? Lucas is definitely wearing out his welcome. Indiana Jones is basically done with this release. Star Wars can't carry this animated film. Come up with a new idea already!!!
P.S. With all that said, I agree with Jamie that Episodes 7, 8, and 9 would be smash hits.
Brandon Scott: Wasn't this a film made to attract people to a new animated TV series? A film release like this seemed a strange idea to me from the beginning but maybe it will be a ratings winner in time, who knows?
Daron Aldridge: Reagan was dead-on in the forecast when he pointed out the anti-climactic feel to this story. At the risk of sounding blasphemous to many, the movie just felt a bit unnecessary. Also, every preview I saw was average to shoddy with the television spots actually having the dialogue out of sync with the characters' mouths.
Jason Lee: I'm a die-hard Star Wars fan to the end, so color me disappointed that The Clone Wars didn't do better. My only rationale behind this result is that most fans couldn't get over the fact that it just didn't look like Lucas and Company spent any time, money or effort on this offering.
Sean Collier: Non-nerds rejoice: nobody cares about George Lucas anymore.