Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 3, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Babylon AD earned an estimated $12 million over the four-day Labor Day Weekend. Its budget was in excess of $60 million. Is this an even bigger failure than expected?
Reagen Sulewski: Matthieu Kassovitz should definitely be skipping out on the gold-plated Hummer for the time being.
As much as I enjoy the broadening and widening of our movie culture, the French just have this bizarre sense of what makes for a blockbuster action movie. Their sensibilities are so removed from what North Americans want that this result seems so inevitable. Really only Luc Besson has managed to crack that, and even then just so.
Tim Briody: And, really, I think it earned a few million extra from the director going "no, really, this movie sucks."
Pete Kilmer: This movie was FUBAR'ed from the get go. With the massive studio interference the director claims, we'll never know if his unfettered version of the movie would be any good. Of course it's a failure. Huge.
Max Braden: It looked like Southland Tales, which starred the Rock and featured Justin Timberlake, and made less than a million on a few hundred screens. Smaller budget, but in the end they'll have both come up short $15-20 million against their budgets. Swap out Vin with any bigger action star you like and I don't think there'd be any noticeable change in the numbers.
David Mumpower: Well, it's going to make about $30 million against a negative cost in the mid-$70s and its campaign for DVD rentals started with, "I HATE MY OWN MOVIE!!!" So, this one is doing well only if following the Uwe Boll playbook is smart.
Daron Aldrige: Right, when put into context with its budget, this is a pretty big failure. It seems that every couple weeks or so this summer, something has underwhelmed or supremely disappointed, from Prince Caspian to Speed Racer to The Happening to The Love Guru to Meet Dave to The X-Files: I Want to Believe to The Mummy 3 to this. Considering that I didn't even know Babylon AD existed two weeks ago, it doesn't seem horrible until you look at the budget and the public drubbing the director is giving the movie.
Brandon Scott: Vinny D will still get work. He's got Fast and the Furious 4 in his back pocket. Director Kassovitz hated this with more fury than his great movie La Haine (translation Hate - see it if you haven't) could collectively conjure up. Babylon AD was DOA. in 2500 BC. Come on Diesel, you can do better. Give me Boiler Room 2 without Ribisi!!
Scott Lumley: I think when your own director comes out beforehand and trashes the film, you might be looking at a failure. What I really want to know is what happened to Vin Diesel? How did one of the coolest, nicest guys in Hollywood see his career follow a similar path to that of Ice Cube? Attaching Diesel's name to a project seems like instant death right now and I don't know how that happened.
Jason Lee: It grossed about the same amount as Statham's Death Race, but with a 25% larger budget and 50% smaller venue-average. I think this has to be considered a pretty big disappointment.
Sean Collier: What, you mean the action movie with no discernible plot starring the has-been bald guy directed by the guy who said that his own movie sucked? Nope, that's right about where I thought it'd land.
Give it up for Don Cheadle
Kim Hollis: Traitor made $10 million over the four-day holiday and has earned $11.5 million since it debuted last Wednesday. What do you think about this result?
Pete Kilmer: It's not bad for a Don Cheadle movie. The man, while a terrific actor and one of my favorites to watch, is just not leading man material in the eyes of the public. He does wonderful work in just about everything he's in, but the public has no clue who he is. Plus the marketing on this was totally aimed at the Bourne crowd and it missed them.
Max Braden: It's also not bad for a Middle East/war/terrorism related movie. That opening isn't as big as The Kingdom's $17 million at the end of September last year, but it's two thirds as much as Lions For Lambs earned in its entire run. I think part of the marketing problem was that Traitor isn't a white hat vs. black hat movie, and unfortunately audiences aren't going to be very receptive to a Muslim protagonist.
David Mumpower: This is certainly more than I had expected, particularly given its pathetic Wednesday start. Max mentions Lions for Lambs, but I think the most accurate recent comparison for this is Breach. That based-on-true-events traitorous spy thriller opened to $12.3 million, only slightly better than this. I would argue Traitor has bigger names, but Breach had better buzz going in. So, this feels like a success to me, particularly for a novice distributor.
Daron Aldrige: It seemed like another low-profile movie and I can't imagine this carrying that big of a budget, so this result appears decent. The advertising, though, seemed to be trying too hard to make it the Bourne Ultimatum without the stellar reviews to back it up. Traitor only has 55% positive reviews according to Rotten Tomatoes.
Brandon Scott: The result is only okay and critics have been mixed on this. I'm more happy for Don Cheadle, one of the best actors of the last two decades, getting a starring vehicle to do fairly well primarily with his name only. I've been lovin' this man since he played Rocket in Colors. With a budget of $22 million, it certainly doesn't appear primed for runaway success, but good for Cheadle and Overture as it should make some money.
Sean Collier: This is the fourth consecutive week with a Wednesday opening, and not one of them made sense to me. The Wednesday open should really be reserved for films with a built-in fanbase that isn't going to want to wait until Friday; if you trot out a regular film on a Wednesday, the crowds aren't going to just materialize. Traitor is particularly bewildering - there was little or no advertising, no real pedigree, and a (I'm sad to say) non-draw in the lead. It's weekend total would look fine without the black eye of an opening.
Jason Lee: I was bracing myself for much, much worse given the anemic Wednesday/Thursday grosses.
Scott Lumley: It's probably pretty good as I'd never even heard about Traitor prior to this week. Has there even been one commercial for this film?
Most people would rather watch the Weather Channel at this point
Kim Hollis: Disaster Movie made $7 million in four days for Lionsgate. Have they squeezed all of the juice out of the parody genre that they can?
Reagen Sulewski: Don't I hope. I don't know how they get around plagiarism suits. Sadly, these things are ultra cheap to make, so it really only takes a few dullards who found the plot to The Love Guru too hard to follow to make these profitable.
Tim Briody: Worst. Timing. Ever. I mean, come on, you put out a movie called Disaster Movie right as a real disaster is about to hit? Yikes.
Pete Kilmer: This movie will make a ton on DVD, so anything it makes in the theaters is gravy I think.
Max Braden: They may be done as far as theatrical release goes, but Pete's right, the DVD market is still there. It's shocking to see how many National Lampoon titles keep coming out.
David Mumpower: I agree with what Tim said and would add that the ancillary revenues on these is plummeting as well. Superhero Movie has earned about $9 million in sales. Saturation has become an issue for this pathetic little sub-genre.
Sean Collier: $7,000,000 divided by nine bucks a ticket is 777,777 people who can no longer be allowed to make decisions for themselves. That being said, however, at least these things are trending downward over time. A question, though - since the recent Movie Movies haven't really had anything to do with the title (Disaster, Epic, etc,) why didn't they just call the first one Parody Movie and then make sequels? It worked for the Scary Movie series. And this has been the only serious question asked about Disaster Movie ever.
Daron Aldrige: Now that would be the true audacity of hope.
Brandon Scott: We can only hope so...and this is my baby's, baby's foot kicking the genre to the curb.
Scott Lumley: They've squeezed out all the juice, sucked on the pulp, crushed the rind to a fine powder and sexually violated the corpse. Move along folks, there's nothing to see here.
Jason Lee: Sean is on to something. I think their next film should be called Parody Movie and it should be about movie execs that unnecessarily inflict parody movie after parody movie on an unsuspecting American public. Then, they should all get eaten by the Cloverfield monster.