Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 7, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Beverly Hills Chihuahua opened to $29 million this weekend. WTF?
Jason Dean: It's the kinder, gentler, umm, what the hell is this decade, the oughts? version of the Dan Krovich's '90s formula that says animals eating people = $$$.
Now it's talking animals = $$$.
Calvin Trager: In seemingly unrelated news, I finally started work on that bomb shelter this weekend.
Tim Briody: I hate to say it, but this is the piece of trash that ended a rather long kid movie drought. Other than that, I got nothin'.
Daron Aldridge: It's a sad day. All the goodwill that the American moviegoer showed us by shunning the likes of Disaster Movie has been erased with this flaming pile left on our doorstep. It is surprising, though, that this one was able to surpass the Friday-adjusted projections by $4 million and pretty much matched Eagle Eye's opening take. So, Calvin, when is the lottery drawing for spots in your bomb shelter?
Max Braden: After the $44 million opening by Alvin and the Chipmunks, this result almost seems normal. I had advance warning from a mother who told me her kids loved the trailer. The real tragedy may be the inevitable sequel.
Reagen Sulewski: I'd comment, but I'm busy swallowing my own tongue.
Kim Hollis: Despite my earlier WTF, this was pretty much exactly what I expected from this movie. The first time I saw those dancing, singing dogs in the trailer over the summer, I knew that kids were going to eat it up - mainly from the way they were dancing themselves and screaming "Chihuahua!" after the preview ended. The big surprise for me is that it's actually almost 50% fresh at RottenTomatoes.
David Mumpower: The only good thing to come from this movie is those "two girls, one cup" variety YouTube clips of bewildered people watching the trailer for this monstrosity. As for the $29 million, that's triple what I would have expected before the tracking data came in. If someone can explain the difference between this and, say, Space Chimps to me, I'd like to hear it.
PS: One word replies of "Chihuahua!" will be discouraged by acid baths.
Sean Collier: Thanks, David, now I'm picturing Two Girls, One Cup again. Here's the thing: it's not that kids are stupid. It's that kids are amused by things that are not funny. Talking dogs? Broad physical comedy? Goofy accents and CGI dance routines? This is all hilarious to children. It all evens out, though. Kids don't laugh when they watch Best in Show.
Scott Lumley: For those wondering about the difference between Space Chimps and this monstrosity, it's this. May, June and July this year were an absolutely perfect storm of some of the best summer cinema I've seen in over a decade, and it was capped by the Dark Knight. Those months were the cinematic equivalent of foie gras, caviar and lobster. And when Space Chimps came out, it was immediately recognized as a slice of stale pizza, with olives. Viewers gorged on the buffet of great food and then moved on, ignoring the sad little slice of pizza.
Now in the fall, we've got the equivalent of a high school lunch line. We've got mystery meat, egg salad sandwiches wrapped in saran wrap and cream of broccoli soup. Suddenly, that same piece of pizza with olives looks a lot tastier in relation to everything else. That's how Space Chimps flames out in three weeks while Beverly Hills Chihuahua rocks the Box office in October.
On a related note, is anyone else suddenly hungry?
Where were these people when Arrested Development needed ratings?
Kim Hollis: Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist opened to $12 million. Do you feel good, bad or indifferent about this result?
Tim Briody: I like this opening for what it is, and it's likely to find a much larger audience on DVD.
Daron Aldridge: I, too, have a fairly unenthusiastic response here. Indifferent is the perfect word. The ads for it (both television and radio) were simply not funny and didn't give the listener/viewer much reason to take the time, which is unfair because it is at least getting some decent reviews (71% positive).
Max Braden: I was really looking forward to this movie, which meant I was hoping that everyone else was too. At first I was disappointed they didn't show up but in retrospect its appeal probably skewed younger than a big romantic comedy. But wait, it made less than Nights in Rodanthe?! You all should be ashamed of not going.
Kim Hollis: I think this is right in line with where expectations should have been. Given the positive reviews it's been receiving, I think it stands a chance at a solid final box office number before it leaves theaters. I've also heard "cult classic" tossed around a little bit, so it's probably one of those movies that finds its best audience on DVD. I haven't seen it yet, but I really want to.
David Mumpower: I strongly suspect that if Michael Cera hadn't starred in Superbad and Juno, the opening weekend (and possibly even final) box office for this would have been less than a million. Against a budget of $9 million, this is an exceptional result.
Sean Collier: It's a fine result against the budget, but I have to echo my confusion from last weekend (a little bit more seriously this time:) where the hell are all the dating teenagers? Do high-school kids do something different on dates these days? You know, kids, you can make out in movie theaters. Just be quiet about it, and for god's sake, sit in the back row.
Scott Lumley: After the opening weekend, they're already well into the black. This is going to be another nice notch on the resume for Michael Cera, as well as a good result for Kat Dennings. I'm seeing this finishing up around the $40 million mark and making just about as much on DVD, if not more. Whoever set this one in motion has to be ecstatically happy right now.
Yee haw!
Kim Hollis: Appaloosa wrangled up $5 million in its expansion to 1,045 venues this weekend. What do you take from this result?
Max Braden: It's not the $14 million that 3:10 to Yuma made last September, but Yuma made that in two and a half times as many theaters. It's a decent result, especially since Appaloosa has a more stoic and less action-packed feel to it.
Reagen Sulewski: The "prestige western" is making a nice comeback, a category that this fits nicely into. Adjusting for star power (Ed Harris is a fine actor, but no marquee idol), this is right in line with what you'd expect for this genre. It's a decent platform to make an Oscar run behind if the word can get out.
Kim Hollis: I would agree that this is a positive result. I continue to be a little surprised at the number of people still willing to give Westerns a chance. Since this one has some decent buzz, I'd expect it to chug along for a little while longer, too.
Sean Collier: I have an aunt and uncle who will quite literally only go to the movie theater if a western is playing. Apparently they're not the only two. Like noir, there are still some filmmakers who just won't let the western genre rest in peace; they're now few enough that any half-decent flick with six-shooters and cowboy hats can succeed. The big question, however - does this bode well for Australia?
Scott Lumley: It's getting decent ratings, it's got a pretty powerful cast in Mortenson, Irons and Harris, so I guess the real question is just how successful can a western be nowadays? This only made $5 million dollars in its opening weekend, so this looks like it's going to die pretty quick. I'm not even sure this will hit Quigley Down Under numbers, and that's sad.
Soon to come: Michael Moore's scathing documentary about David Zucker
Kim Hollis: An American Carol, the hate-on Michael Moore film, earned $3.8 million from 1,639 venues. The $2,325 per venue average is pretty lousy, but since this is Vivendi Entertainment, is that an acceptable result? Alternately, say something funny about An American Carol and/or Michael Moore.
Reagen Sulewski: Oh, I get it now... Michael Moore is fat!
Max Braden: Did you see the trailer for An American Carol? How are we supposed to say something funny about it? I was baffled by the cast they managed to assemble for direct-to-video material, probably the reason it did as well as it did.
Tim Briody: Dear all involved with An American Carol: There's a reason there isn't more right-wing comedy. It's really hard to come up with something funnier than reality.
Kim Hollis: I saw no advertising for this movie (though admittedly, I'm not the target audience) and just couldn't imagine people would go out to see it. I'm surprised it did this well. Weren't Michael Moore jokes played out five or more years ago?
David Mumpower: Given the fine line between this and a straight-to-DVD release advertised late at night on Comedy Central, I think it speaks a lot to the degree of hate some folks have toward Michael Moore. $3.8 million for this? Wow.
Sean Collier: I'm betting that O'Reilly and company had a field day with this one coming in ahead of Religulous. I'd turn on the TV and check, but me looking at The O'Reilly Factor leads to broken televisions. I can't help but thinking that the whole audience for this one was just a right-wing push to support the project; I'd be surprised if it made a million next weekend.
Scott Lumley: How in the hell did this ever get greenlighted? Since when did it become acceptable for a studio to make a film based on the premise of 'Nyah! Nyah!' Also, Kelsey Grammar, James Woods and Dennis Hopper all need a good, hard slap. What in the hell were they doing in this film? Did the producers have nude pictures of them drunkenly violating a sheep?
I'm shaking my head at what passes as entertainment nowadays. I'd seen vanity pictures before, but this is my first 'spite' film.