Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
November 10, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa exceeded all expectations with a $63.5 million opening. How impressed are you by this result?
Brandon Scott: Everything that I had read leading up to its release on Friday had this pegged to do $60 million, so in that regard I am not that surprised. Nevertheless, that is a pretty stellar result. Madasgascar 3 should be titled "Escape to the Theater" with those type of figures. Never underestimate kid pics, I suppose.
Scott Lumley: And thus did the theatres suffer a great drought after the leaving of the Dark Knight. And the masses did stay away, nonplussed as they were with the offerings of High School Musical 3 and Zack and Miri make a film about naughty bits. And for 40 days and 40 nights the filmgoers were absent from this most holy of temples, the theater. And then, as foretold by the movie posters, Madagascar 2 did open. And the filmgoers did rejoice, and flock to the theatre they did, and gleefully did they watch this most insipid of animated sequels. Their wallets sprang forth, like overstuffed democratic polling stations, and the money showered down upon Stiller and Rock and... some other guys.
Man, it's tough talking all biblical. Am I allowed to just say that the public had been waiting for a name brand film that looked light and funny and decent to watch and take the kids to?
Max Braden: This has to be considered a success. If the number holds, it puts it ahead of Kung Fu Panda and even WALL-E. And the first Madagascar opened to $47 million three years ago.
Kim Hollis: I agree that it's an unqualified success. It's done a great job of improving on the opening weekend of the original Madagascar, and also has scored higher in the positive review department. It's an easy choice for families right now, and that should not change until Bolt hits theaters.
David Mumpower: Like Kung Fu Panda before it, this is the largest non-Shrek opening for DreamWorks Animation. Given the blockbuster success of the panda, an even better performance by the Madagascar sequel is tremendous. Of course, all this does is reinforce just how spectacular a success the Shrek franchise has been. Add the openings of these two films together and you still barely exceed Shrek the Third's $121.6 million debut.
Stupid adorable cuddly animals
Kim Hollis: This is the second $60+ million opening for DreamWorks Animation this year (after Kung Fu Panda) and it surpasses WALL-E's $63.1 million opening in June. Why is DreamWorks Animation having a better year than Pixar?
Brandon Scott: "Better" year is kind of relative here. We have DreamWorks' two films to Pixar's one, so maybe it's not a fair fight to this point. WALL-E actually slightly out-grossed Kung Fu Panda stateside, though I know that the budget was significantly higher. I think there are a few things at play here. Kung Fu Panda had Jack Black voicing it and having the panda versus the blips and beeps of WALL-E, I think it was a little easier for kids to take. That was a welcome surprise. Couple that with an established audience for Madagascar 2, due to it being a sequel, and I think that's your answer. Rather than say one is besting the other this year, I think its more of a story that DreamWorks is emerging as a potential equal. While it is still too early to tell if that's the case, 2008 returns have to be encouraging.
Scott Lumley: I'm going to say that it's happening because they've realized they can make an animated film without the word "Shrek" in the title. Mike Myers' hands just got real clammy when he saw these numbers.
Max Braden: Furry animals are cuddlier than metal robots. I heard that from a singing chihuahua.
Kevin Chen: Brandon Scott's sequel answer is probably the right answer for the strength of the opening, but as always, success is a marathon and not a sprint. According to IMDb, WALL-E's domestic gross wound up at $222 million whereas Kung-Fu Panda ended at $215 million. My guess is that Madagascar 2 falls short of both of those totals. There has also been talk of a Best (not Animated) Picture push for WALL-E at this year's Oscars, and while both of DreamWorks' entries to date this year have been entertaining, neither film has the chops to warrant a similar effort.
Kim Hollis: I agree that it's all a matter of degrees and though I asked the question, I wouldn't necessarily say that DreamWorks Animation is having the better year. I suspect that WALL-E will outperform Kung Fu Panda on DVD/Blu-Ray, especially because Disney/Pixar have done some really special things with that packaging. And while I am dubious of WALL-E's chances of actually receiving a Best Picture Oscar nomination, the fact that it's in the conversation does speak to its high quality. Kudos really should go to DreamWorks Animation, though. They have done a fantastic job in marketing both of their releases in 2008 and they delivered the goods on Kung Fu Panda.
David Mumpower: To my mind, WALL-E's support is along the lines of The Iron Giant in that the film's die-hard fans are ever so passionate in support of the film. In reality, many (maybe even most) people view it as a fine film that falls a bit short of Pixar's heritage, which breaks my heart. Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar 2 do not have the high end support that WALL-E does, but that isn't required to be the people's choice. As consumers, we speak with our dollars and the reality is that both Dreamworks Animation releases in 2008 have achieved similar success to Pixar's one. As such, they make it up in volume.
It's robots versus cuddly creatures in an all out battle royale!
Kim Hollis: WALL-E has earned $222.7 million and Kung Fu Panda has earned $215.4 million. Where do you expect Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa to place in comparison to these entries, and by how much?
Brandon Scott: My suspicion is that it will fall a little short of those figures due to those being released in the summer. I do suspect it will be in the same ballpark, though, in the very high $100 to low $200 million range. Christmas films and Bolt are still on the way soon. That is a very unscientific guess, though.
Scott Lumley: (Stiller + Rock + Penguins - David Schwimmer + great animation) Lack of Competition = $210 million domestic box office. The entrails from the chicken I sacrificed say $240 million, though. Okay, so there are no entrails. Okay, maybe I didn't exactly sacrifice it. Maybe I just ate it with a blend of seven herbs and spices... but it still says $240 million.
Max Braden: The Madagascar films are performing nearly equally to the Ice Age films, which opened to $46 million and $68 million. Ice Age 2 stopped just shy of $200 million. With the help of the holiday season we should see this sequel cross $200 million. But $240 million? Unlikely.
Kim Hollis: I'd say that $200 million is a safe bet. However, since it's running into the holiday season, it might actually see some inflated box office totals. It's a bit of a wild card right now. It will be telling to see how well it holds up when Bolt is released.
David Mumpower: I'm not sold on this one making $200 million domestically. It is, after all, a sequel and those tend to start better then fade more quickly. Madagascar 2 is going to recover a bit during Thanksgiving week, but that will counteracted by the miserable box office period over the following ten days. If it's not still in decent shape on December 19th, an unlikely scenario, it's not going to get much of a late December holiday bump, either.
He is McLovin.
Kim Hollis: Role Models shocked box office analysts by nearly doubling its $10 million tracking with a $19.3 million opening. How did this happen?
Scott Lumley: Hey, Stifler has a fan base! Who knew?
Max Braden: Maybe audiences are getting tired of Seth Rogen's teddy bear humor and want something mouthier...from children.
Kim Hollis: The TV ads and trailer were hilarious, and did an excellent job of highlighting the fact that McLovin is a key character in the film. It also has solid reviews, which normally doesn't matter much, but might have gone a long way toward making Role Models stand out as more than just a run-of-the-mill comedy.
David Mumpower: I think the little kid saying, "No, I won't take my pants off" demonstrated that this was going to be a much bawdier comedy than Team Apatow normally presents. Without Judd's oversight, a couple of his actors went a different direction. Given that a couple of members of The State were in charge here, it's no surprise that they worked a bit blue. Also, I think that a key aspect of all of this is that it offered the promise of being something the Zack and Miri trailers never presented that title as being: hilarious. People don't care who makes a comedy, just that it makes them laugh. Role Models managed this better and deserved its initial success.
Perhaps a Swanky Modes movie would have had more success
Kim Hollis: The other new opener this week, Soul Men, grossed only $5.6 million for MGM/Dimension Films. Why did it fare so poorly?
Brandon Scott: Because it looked atrocious, nobody cared, and Sam Jackson is THE most overused actor in Hollywood. Stop sending this guy scripts for a while, please!!!!! I feel slightly sorry for the recently deceased Bernie Mac but he wasn't a bankable draw anyway. I wish there were a better vehicle to remember him by.
Scott Lumley: I think I saw one commercial for this film, and I had no idea what the hell was going on in it. I mean, really, guys, I have the attention span of a hyperactive six-year-old on a sugar binge, so could you at least put out a decent trailer for the... Oh! Shiny button! Wheeeee!
Max Braden: I wasn't in the theaters in October and I didn't see a single ad for this on TV. I caught Samuel L. Jackson briefly on late night and still managed to miss a clip of the film. Shame, though, that Heath Ledger's final film got massive attention and Bernie Mac's final film was passed over.
Kim Hollis: I suspect that the studio actually held back on over-marketing this one out of respect for Bernie Mac's (and Isaac Hayes') passing. It's very difficult to delicately market a movie where your star has recently died. It was a much different circumstance for The Dark Knight - the Joker is an iconic character and Ledger's death actually added an air of mystery and intrigue for the film. That's not going to be the case with a pure comedy.
David Mumpower: Kim has this drilled. Unless they had been willing to market this as "the final film of two movie icons", there wasn't a tasteful way to sell the movie. Its failure is bad luck more than anything else. I'm disappointed, because I really liked this idea as a film concept. It's like The Five Heartbeats as a comedy.
At this time, we're going to discuss the box office performance of *breaks into song*
Kim Hollis: High School Musical 3 fell 39% to $9.3 million. It has a running total of $75.7 million after 17 days. If Disney had this release to do all over again, would they release it at Thanksgiving or Christmas?
Brandon Scott: This is an interesting question, though I tend to be of the opinion that people are going to see a film if they want to, regardless of when it is released. (Probably not the right opinion, but it seems to be the way it should be.) I think for HSM3, it has more to do with what films are being released over those time frames than anything else. The audience was built-in and there regardless and it's still a very, very good result, so I don't really see what the issue is.
Scott Lumley: I don't think anyone at Disney is upset with $50 million in profit. That said, I bet the mouse house would really like a do-over here.
Kim Hollis: I don't think Thanksgiving was ever going to be an option, since Harry Potter had claimed that date and when the film was pushed, Twilight jumped to grab it. There's no reason to put your movie up against competition that's going to syphon your audience. Christmas is a different question, since family films perform so very well during that time frame. I think the one thing we can all agree upon is that opening a kid flick the week before a Friday Halloween is a huge mistake. I would even think Disney might have been better off debuting it on Presidents' Day Weekend.
David Mumpower: Everyone here is right to state that Disney considers any and all profit here to be free money. After all, it's a cheesy made-for-cable movie, for God's sake. You don't see Mother, May I Sleep with Danger 3: Senior Year on the release schedule for a reason. Despite this, I'm certain all involved will acknowledge that Halloween hurt them a lot more than is typical for a release. Brandon is right that the date of release is ordinarily not a factor, but BOP has chronicled a few exceptions over the years. This was one of them. A G-rated film that skews this young would have been perfectly slotted in mid-December as kids go on holiday break. This movie has made money, but it has also ceded tens of millions of dollars through faulty release strategy. Anyone who says otherwise is being disingenuous.