Prophecy: Watchmen
By BOP Staff
December 11, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Told over a series of 12 issues, Watchmen revolutionized the way people look at their imaginary superheroes. During the 20-some years since its release, multiple studios have attempted to create a respectful adaptation of this literary masterpiece. All of them had eventually washed their hands of the idea and given up until Zach Snyder entered the picture. Told by Warner Bros. that the movie would be made no matter what, the director of 300 and the Dawn of the Dead re-make made the determination that he would rather try and possibly fail then allow someone else who didn't love the story to completely bungle it. This willingness to avoid the basic tenets of risk-averse Hollywood impresses the staff at BOP. Even so, it does nothing to re-assure us that what should have been the finest of limited run HBO series will make for a quality movie. Too much truncation of the story would be required, at least that had been our belief prior to the release of the teaser. This clip reflects a much more faithful adaptation of Moore's work than we had believed possible. Our hopes have been raised.
Do you believe Watchmen will perform on a par with Snyder's last work, 300? If not, are you expecting larger or smaller numbers and why? Also, do you expect to like this movie?
Scott Lumley: My expectations are simple, Watchmen is going to be a monster. The only question is just how big of a monster is it going to be?
The Hollywood Stock Exchange has Watchmen pegged at about $180 million, but honestly, HSX traditionally tends to undersell movies like this. Dark Knight sat at $240 million right up until opening weekend, then the price got seriously adjusted.
Also, Watchmen is getting a grade A marketing scheme thrown its way. A ton of trailers in front of The Dark Knight plus some absolutely cerebral and true to source imagery are pumping up the expectations for this film in a big way. Then again, the movie has a weird opening date for what appears to be a tentpole release. I like the symmetry of the 03/06/09 release date, but I think it's a bad idea. The film is going to need serious power to open huge in March. It should realistically be bumped to May to give it a better shot at dominating what appears to be a weak upcoming summer.
I personally think that Watchmen is going to be big, probably somewhere in the $200 - $225 million range when the whole thing is said and done. But if the studio gets smart and bumps it up to May, then that total is going to need significant adjustment upwards.
Jason Lee: I agree with Scott on this one. I think Watchmen has the unique positioning of having a movie-going audience who's both acclimated to this type of uber-stylized picture (with 300, Wanted, etc.) and interested in it. On top of that, you have a The Matrix-like situation with a movie that looks primed to introduce a breathtaking new visual landscape.
I would argue that this is the type of situation that helped Finding Nemo garner $340 million at the box-office. Now I don't believe that Watchmen will do quite THAT well, but I do believe that it'll break the $200 million barrier.
Jim Van Nest: I'll start by saying I'm not a comic guy. I'd never heard of Watchmen until the movie buzz started going. I saw Dark Knight, but did not get the Watchmen teaser and to date have still not seen it. I don't necessarily think I have to have seen it to say that I think the previous predictions are way high on it. First up is the March release date. Huh?? This is supposed to be a huge movie and it gets dumped into March? I don't like that at all. Second, this is not a very popular title. And when I say popular, I mean well known to the average Joe. As the intro says, it was a 12-issue run done over 20 years ago. Not exactly Batman.
To get the huge box office, in my opinion, it has to appeal to more than comic geeks. And I don't think Watchmen does. For me, I think a good comparison for this might be Blade. Blade was another character I'd never heard of, yet this unknown guy opened to $17 million in 1998. Now, I'm not saying Watchmen will be that low. In fact, I think a better comparison might actually be the Blade sequel. It opened in March of '02 to the tune of $32 million and finished with a total box office of $81 million. I expect Watchmen to perform better than that, but follow a similar pattern. It'll get the fanboy opening, and will probably crack the top seven or so March openings. But 300's March record is very safe as I'd look for a $40-45 million opening and a final take in the $120 million range.
Pete Kilmer: Disclaimer: Working on the front lines of comic fandom (i.e. a Comic Store), my perception of what the public is going to do is a bit skewed. That being said, when the trailer hit along with the Dark Knight, my four stores here in Indianapolis sold out of the Watchmen trade the very next morning and continued to sell like crazy for the next month. DC Comics reprinted an astonishing 1,000,000 copies of the book to meet demand.
I've seen one reason that people believe Watchmen may fail is that comic fans are too old. Would you have said that about the Lord of the Rings fans? This is almost the same thing in the way that people wanted to see Lord of the Rings as a movie for decades. Comic fans have wanted a Watchmen movie for years, and the fact that it looks super sexy (in a Matrix, 300 kind of way) is going to draw in a lot of "civilians" (not comic fans) to it. I reject the notion that comic fans are to old to go see it. They will be out in crazy numbers opening weekend and if the movie is as good as Kevin Smith says it is (remember he loved the third Star Wars prequel movie, so take it with the grain of salt), then the movie is going to get a LOT of repeat business. Putting the film out in March is just smart placement for it.
Max Braden: The trailer for Watchmen left me baffled, and not in a "I need to find out what this is" way. I got the impression most audiences were left scratching their heads, too. It's got some nifty Silver Surfer graphics, but no clear hook to grasp on to. 300 had an overabundance of sweaty guys, but at least they resembled a rugby or football team. Naked ghosts and bird costumes? That's asking too much from general audiences. Batman was able to move away from brainless commercialized style because he was a known property. Broody and elitist isn't a recipe for success with unfamiliar characters in March. $28-32 million.
Scott Lumley: Max, you have to be kidding me. It's possible that I've oversold myself on this one, but I think you're seriously underselling Watchmen. Granted, I don't like the March release date either, but from what I've seen upcoming for the winter this movie seems poised to reap some serious coin from movie-going crowds that are now fully accepting and appreciating comic book films.
The marketing campaign is in full swing, and the book is being sold mainstream in places like Costco and Chapters. This one is going to be big. Really big.
Max Braden: I just don't see The Dark Knight automatically guaranteeing a market for graphic novels, and I don't see this publication suddenly becoming a national best seller, and I don't see the current trailer as a positive. When I saw the Watchmen cover of Entertainment Weekly, I briefly wondered if the whole thing was a parody. I'll keep my prediction at the low $30s until I see a more compelling trailer - one that appeals to popcorn audiences and not just the comic book niche.
Scott Lumley:
The Incredible Hulk - $134.5 million
The Dark Knight - $524 million
Iron Man - $318 million
Hellboy 2 - $75.5 million
Recent history states that you're way off on that prediction. Might there be a bit of a dip in revenue from the release date? Maybe. I don't think so, and I also think this may be some brilliant marketing.
As for the trailer, I don't have any idea what you're talking about. I've seen it about 50 times online and I think it's just fantastic. I have to stand by my earlier prediction that you are massively underestimating this one.
Craig Hemenway: I fall closer to Max's camp than Scott and Jason's. Watchmen was a fantastic story and a landmark in the comics medium. However, as a movie it lacks two things: 1) a character/franchise that's well-known outside of comics fans; and 2) a recognizable star. I think Watchmen opens more like Daredevil than The Dark Knight. Most recent comic book movies have featured an instantly recognizable character - Batman, Spider-Man, Superman, the X-Men. Those that haven't have fared much more poorly:
1. Sin City - $29 million opening, $74 million box office (2.55 multiplier)
2. Daredevil - $45 million opening, $103 million box office (2.29 multiplier)
3. Ghost Rider - $52 million opening, $112 million box office (2.15 multiplier)
4. Fantastic Four - $56 million opening, $155 million box office (2.77 multiplier)
5. FF2 - $58 million opening, $158 million box office (2.72 multiplier)
6. Incredible Hulk - $55 million opening, $135 million box office (2.45 multiplier)
7. Hellboy 2 - $35 million opening, $75 million box office (2.14 multiplier)
Of the above, the Fantastic Four is probably the best-known to a non-comics reader so it's no great surprise that it had the best opening, overall box office and multiplier. And to Pete's point, this is no Lord of the Rings. LotR had far, far more name recognition outside its core audience than does Watchmen. I just don't see the draw that gets this to open above the mid-40s and finish with more than about $120 million.
And as much as I love Kevin Smith (in a totally hetero, non throw-away-the-dixie-cup style) he's hardly unbiased when it comes to the subject of comics and he has never had a movie open above about $20 million. I wouldn't use him as a predictor of box office.
Sean Collier: I really think many of you are underestimating the name value of Watchmen. I know literally dozens of people who either don't read comics/graphic novels and love Watchmen, or started reading comics because of Watchmen. In fact, there are very few (young) people I know who aren't familiar with the book. I do agree with the point that a comic book film is hard to sell without a key hero - see Sin City or The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen - but the marketing should make up that gap, I think.
I'm not sure how this film couldn't outperform 300. Think of the arguments some of you have made against Watchmen's success - it's not a mainstream property, there's no hero, it's a hard sell. All of that is true several times over of 300, which was a practically unknown comic series until the film was released. The compelling visuals and sheer energy of the film led to a $70 million opening - in March, mind you - and a finish at $210 million. I truly believe that if 300 can open to $70 million, Watchmen can open to $80 million, at the very least - remember, we are talking about the most significant graphic novel of all time.
As to the reaction - I feel the film is sure to thrill those unfamiliar with the book, and be something of a disappointment to loyalists. Watchmen fans are fanatical - unless we get detail all the way down to a significant chunk of Tales of the Black Freighter on screen, a good sized sequence of Hollis Mason backstory, and about 15 minutes of Dr. Manhattan alone on Mars, I don't think diehard fans will be satisfied. Still, even as a fan of the book, I think I'll like the film - the trailer has me very intrigued.
Ben Farrow: 300 is a classic tale that appealed to more than comic geeks. I knew the story of the hot gates from classical literature, the teriffic gates of fire, and about a dozen other tellings of the tale. I had no idea who Frank Miller was nor did I make the visual connection between the 300 and Sin City. I wanted to see 300 for the tale, which I knew, and then the trailer with some of the eyepopping vusuals sealed the deal. The fact that the story was well-told made me enjoy it.
I've never heard of Watchmen. I've seen the smiley face with blood, but have no context for it - this does nowhere near 300 numbers.
Walid Habboub: Sean, I would slightly disagree with your comparative assesment due to my opinion that there's a distinct discrepancy between a superhero film and a comic book film. 300 and Sin City are distinctly not superhero movies though they are based on comic books while Watchmen is clearly, and will come across in the advertising, as a comic book movie.
This makes me less enthusiastic about Watchmen's box office potential because superhero movies require brand recognition. Though it's not the only factor in its success (Catwoman and Punisher are two examples), I do think it is a must. Watchmen does not have that. I appreciate that you know many people that know about the graphic novel, but my personal observation is that it is a non-entity with much of the target audience.
Having said that, I no longer know what defines success at the box office anymore. I do not think this movie can open to $80 million, though I can't help but think that the "From the director of 300" and the visual oomph we've seen would have it open north of $60 million.
Craig Hemenway: In my circle of friends, I know exactly one person who's ever heard of or read Watchmen and that's because I gave her my copy to read. She loved it and is excited for the movie but only because of reading the story. (As an aside, is this really a graphic novel or is it a miniseries? Technical point, I guess.) I have to agree with Walid on this one. And has there been a big marketing push, aside from the pre-Dark Knight trailer? Clearly there's still time for this to pick up but I haven't seen much to date.
The single biggest thing I see working for this movie is that it's the first film of 2009 that has even a shot of being an event movie. If Sean is right and this ignites moviegoers who have no familiarity with the source material, it can run for a month before there's any competition for the core demographic.
And finally, current rumor has the movie clocking in at roughly two hours and 45 minutes. That makes me hopeful that the majority of the main sequence will be told pretty faithfully.
Pete Kilmer: Craig, I would say that this now considered a graphic novel. It's been in print for over 20 years as a graphic novel and that's how a lot of people know it. But you can still call it a miniseries. There is no wrong answer on that question.
James Wood: It's just one data point, but I have yet to see any of the Watchmen trailers get any reaction at all in any of the screenings I've been in where it played. There's been nothing but silence throughout and following - probably three or four times now. I'm not sure what it means, but I don't think it's good.
And I just want to point out that there were definitely reactions to other trailers. For Star Trek, for example, it got a smattering of applause.
I really think that if you don't know what Watchmen is, it looks kind of goofy in a League of Extraordinary Gentlemen kind of way.
Scott Lumley: That first trailer - the one with the Smashing Pumpkins song - had me cheering.
The second one, with Rorshach growling all the way through the trailer, has me going, "Uh oh... this isn't good." It still looks great, but wow that is some brutal dialogue.
James Wood: My wife asked if it was "Christian Bale Batman" speaking.
Walid Habboub: It was a good first trailer, but an average and slightly puzzling second trailer.
I'm starting to think fanboys will see this and no one else. Its cross-over appeal is dangling by a thread; some would say it never existed (yeah, the "some" is me).
Daron Aldridge: I guess I am just another brick in the uninitiated wall. I haven't read the source material but have been convincingly encouraged to pick it up. Just to find it. Speaking as the "average Joe" as Jim labeled us, I am compelled to see Watchmen at the theater after watching both trailers, but my tastes do typically lean toward this genre, regardless of familiarity. I am simply not convinced that this one can really break out to the level that Snyder's other March, graphic novel adaptation, 300, did. Crossover appeal is not always guaranteed because of a slick trailer that introduces the story nicely.
My reflex is that Watchmen will pull a bit more than Hellboy 2's opening numbers with $40 million but have better legs to end with almost $150 million, if the end product's quality lives up to expectations. Right now, I am 0 for 2 for the High School Musical 3 and Twilight prophecies. I overestimated the Disney product and drastically undersold Twilight, which matched my total opening prediction in one day. So, let's try a new approach and go in the opposite direction of my gut. Watchmen will mimic 300's performance with $65 to $70 million and end up with nearly $225 million.