Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
December 15, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Day the Earth Stood Still earned $30.5 million. What do you take from this result, and what do you think prevented it from breaking out?
David Mumpower: I see this as an okay result. This is a total that avoids disaster, but it's certainly not a strong performance. $30 million openings were the hallmark of big budget action films in the late 1990s. We've moved past that level now, even with December releases. While there was a time where a deflated opening weekend this month was indicative of nothing other than the standard box office behavior, recent years have shown the potential for breakout hits. The fact that The Day The Earth Stood Still failed to do so is almost certainly product of the difficulty faced by the advertising department. The movie looks shiny as well as otherworldly, which is a good achievement for a sci-fi flick. The question that the trailers never answered is what is being sold here, and the answer to that likely stems from the fact that no one involved with the project seems to know. I get the vibe that this is going to go down as the latest example of the failures of most modern re-makes of classic films. I see it as fitting end-of-year bookend to the same mistake Fox made with X-Files: I Want to Believe.
Joel Corcoran: I think this film suffered indirectly from our current economic malaise. And I don't just mean from the general consumer belt-tightening that is affecting the entertainment industry overall. I think the palpable fear about where the U.S. economy is heading turned people off from seeing this film. If you're worried about whether you'll have a job next month - or worse, whether you can pay your rent or mortgage this month - then the last thing you want to do with what little discretionary funds you have is go out and see some depressing, apocalyptic movie about the world being torn apart. It strikes a little too close to home. In a way, it's an effect similar to that which kept people away from past movies about the Iraq War. Had The Day the Earth Stood Still opened a year ago, I think it would've earned a more respectable box office - maybe even somewhere around $50 million.
Brandon Scott: Since everyone is taking the deeper approach so far to the topic, I will just say that nothing seemed particularly interesting or moving about this pic. That amount of money is nice, but we've seen far bigger openings this year and even in recent weeks. The film didn't look incredibly interesting, nor did it have a clear-cut message as to what it was about, so it didn't clean up at the box office. Nothing about it felt original - the fact that it was a re-make aside. Nothing spoke to me saying, "you must see this movie," so I didn't and I think a lot of people felt the same way.
Eric Hughes: I'm actually surprised this one eclipsed $30 million. I can't think of anyone that had the flick on their radar this weekend. I mean, who's really interested in seeing Keanu Reeves act alien? Doesn't he appear that way every time he's in a movie ever?
Jason Dean: Well, I'd rather see Keanu act like a cold, emotionless alien in a movie where he is supposed to be an alien as opposed to seeing him in other roles where he still acts cold and emotionless.
David Mumpower: But enough about Sweet November...
Jason Dean: Our history must go way too far back and/or I must really be that transparent a fan boy, because it is utter jealousy/disdain for his Sweet November performance that inspired my initial remark. I just didn't want to bring it up but since you did...
Scott Lumley: I think we're being a little hard on Keanu here. While he certainly has the track record to open a movie like this up in a big way, I think this is a combination of bad timing and poor marketing. The effects for this looked impressive but I had no clear idea what exactly was the threat in the movie. The trailers I saw showed various things exploding or disintegrating, Keanu in a Tie acting severe, and another shot of him being questioned by an agent and acting very ominous. I didn't really have a visceral reaction to anything in the trailers and I don't think many other people did either. Combine that with the actual disaster that a lot of people are facing in regards to their economic future, and you can see why there wasn't a lot of buzz for this film. My feeling is that $31 million isn't bad, but the drop next weekend is going to be pretty shocking.
Jason Lee: I'm still a little baffled as to why they opened this in December. Sure, you've had I Am Legend and King Kong, which tend on the destructive/dystopic side of things, but they had Will Smith and Peter Jackson behind them. Keanu just doesn't match up.
David Mumpower: Jason, if nothing else, what mystifies me is why Fox put Australia in November and this one in December. The awards bait movie should be released for the holidays and the sci-fi action film should be released in the month of massive openings. That's the playbook everyone knows and Fox ignored it to their significant detriment.
Jamie Ruccio: A $30 million opening feels about right to me. It's nothing if not average for what I expect. There's nothing remarkable in the commercials or trailers other than some effects shots, Reeves and some general shots to give you an idea of what the movie is about. The opening of this movie feels very much like the recent remake of King Kong by Peter Jackson to me - a remake of a classic that did fairly well at opening and will plod along. It'll be a footnote or at best a paragraph when people discuss the original, is my guess.
Also, related to the discussion regarding choice of opening weekend I'm really wondering if either A) people are trying new strategies that we just aren't catching onto or B) people are about to lose their jobs. It began with Bolt and Twilight opening on the same cannibalizing weekend and continues now with The Day the Earth Stood Still opening this weekend. I'm surprised it didn't open on one of the more traditional weekends for this type of movie. (We'll forgive the people who opened Transporter 3 so close to Quantum of Solace given that Transporter was such a god awful waste of time. It had to open when it did so it could go off to die.) I really wonder if people are trying new strategies...
That's still a lot of dough
Kim Hollis: Given that the production budget is relatively modest at $80 million, do you still expect The Day the Earth Stood Still to be profitable?
David Mumpower: The box office results of last December's big three (National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Alvin and the Chipmunks and I Am Legend) were $220.0 million, $217.3 million and $256.4 million. Those titles opened to $44.8 million, $44.3 million and $77.2 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the bomb of the season, The Golden Compass, opened to $25.8 million and finished with $70.1 million. As I mentioned in the wrap, it wound up making $372.2 million worldwide, which puts it ahead of Alvin and the Chipmunks among the quartet, but it didn't hang around a while in terms of domestic performance. So, those are the theoretical boundaries for The Day The Earth Stood Still. It should have a minimum of a 2.7 final multiplier (final box office divided by opening weekend result) with a 5.0 being the best possible scenario. Despite the difference in scale, I believe that I Am Legend is a good barometer for this title's legs. A 3.3 final multiplier would indicate a domestic take of right at $100 million, meaning that even if it falls a bit short of that goal, it's profitable endeavor for Fox. As was the case with X-Files: I Want to Believe, however, the lost revenue in opportunity cost is off the charts.
Joel Corcoran: David indirectly raises an interesting point - what does "profitable" mean in today's box office environment? The film industry has long argued that they are "recession proof", but this current recession is going to strongly test that old cliche. And I think a film's profitability is going to have to be measured more in broader terms to include other sales and rentals, rather than just box office take. For example, I Am Legend on DVD has sold just shy of 6.5 million units just in the U.S. for a take of $112.0 million; and National Treasure: Book of Secrets sold 5.9 million units in the U.S. for a take of $93.7 million. And I'm sure both movies will be just as popular in downloadable and streaming formats (e.g., Netflix's Roku box and TiVo services). As movie fans continue to hunker down in this recession, I think they're going to want to stick with the "staycation" mentality and watch more movies at home, rather than in theaters. The huge, blockbuster, tent pole releases should remain profitable in any context, but I think we're going to see a rapidly increasing trend where a lot of movies barely break even at the box office, or even suffer a mild loss, but still remain highly profitable overall when other types of releases are accounted for.
Brandon Scott: It's certainly arguable how much profit equals success, and all of these things mean something different to different people. If I put money in a stock, it goes up 4% and it cost me 3% to sell it, I will take my 1% as profit, but that doesn't mean I wasn't hoping for more. I think The Day the Earth Stood Still clears $80 million and probably does about $100 million as David suggests, so it might be profitable but still a disappointment for the studio. These are interesting conversations to have but also so objective and open to so many different interpretations, I guess. I know that I will "stand still" rather than going to see The Day The Earth Stood Still, so I won't be helping it out, one way or another...sorry Keanu.
Scott Lumley: This should be long-term profitable, but not short-term. It's going to take a while for this film to recoup the initial investment, and that's money that could have immediately been plowed into different projects. As it stands, this will probably finish out with about $90 to $100 million, and the DVD and aftermarket will make this a slight success. Unfortunate timing and poor marketing really hurt this film.
Max Braden: I agree with David except for the I Am Legend legs comparison. I Am Legend had much more going for it: Will Smith trumps Keanu Reeves, and the word-o-mouth was "That was pretty scary" vs "it's pretty boring" for The Day the Earth Stood Still. Keanu's movie doesn't face much competition as far as genre goes, but I sense the male audiences will be shifting to Yes Man. I don't think The Day the Earth Stood still will bomb like Golden Compass, but I could see a sub-3.0 multiplier. It only needs a 2.58 to meet the budget in theaters, and I'd expect DVD business to be good.
David Mumpower: The I Am Legend legs comparison exists in that I Am Legend's advantages in terms of holdover are neutered by the mathematical complications created by a $77.2 million debut. The larger the opening number, the more difficulty there is in having a solid final multiplier. The corollary applies to The Day The Earth Stood Still. A smaller opening number makes it easier to have a solid final multiplier. These are the same style of film, generally speaking. The differences in scale balance out the rest. Moving forward, I feel quite comfortable with the 2.7 multiplier expectation.
Jason Lee: I also think that The Day The Earth Stood Still benefits from having relatively no competition from an action film stand point. Seven Pounds, Desperaux, Yes Man, Bedtime Stories...I just don't think any of those films truly siphon audience away from someone that was already interested in seeing The Day The Earth Stood Still.
Jamie Ruccio: I agree with everything Joel mentioned regarding profitability. I think we need to redefine the term and its parameters. I don't think it's a temporary shift either that we're talking about due to something even as significant as this economic downturn. I think profitability will be measured in smaller units with all the competition for audience attention. That's why you're seeing ever increased risk-sharing between studios and distribution companies as well as a continued focus to build up the overseas markets.
20th Century Fox would like us to pretend the next topic doesn't exist
Kim Hollis: Rank the following 2008 Fox releases in order of most disappointing to least disappointing relative to pre-release expectations:
Australia
Babylon A.D.
The Day the Earth Stood Still
The Happening
Meet Dave
The Rocker
X-Files: I Want to Believe
David Mumpower: Adding the relative to expectations aspect is what makes this tricky. The Rocker is a bomb by any standard but Rainn Wilson failing to open a movie is no surprise. He's the new Michael Richards without the racism, after all. On the other hand, there were huge expectations for titles such as Australia, the X-Files sequel and The Day The Earth Stood Still relative to the rest of the titles on this list. The higher profile factors in a lot to my mind. I see the X-Files sequel as the biggest failure here other Babylon A.D., the title I named in the Wrap-Up as their purest bomb. When the director says a project sucks, that's the ball game. Australia is the third biggest bomb due to its abject failure in the face of expected end of year acclaim. I haven't seen a serious awards contender be such a disappointment like this since The Majestic. From there, I see Meet Dave followed by The Rocker as the bombs and The Happening as a one weekend wonder (appropriately) torched by word-of-mouth, meaning that to this point, The Day The Earth Stood Still is the heavily qualified success of the group.
Joel Corcoran: In terms of failing to meet expectations, I think the biggest disappointment has to be Australia. Yes, the X-Files sequel had a fanbase that decided to stay home, but Australia had Oscar expectations before it hit theaters. I'd put X-Files in a close second, though. The Happening and Babylon A.D. are probably tied for third based on over-hyped they were, and I'd give a slight edge to The Rocker over Meet Dave for fifth and sixth place. However, I think the jury is still out on The Day the Earth Stood Still. We need to see at least one more week's box office before making a final decision.
Brandon Scott: This question is like being a judge for the Westminster Dog Show and having to lift a dog's tail to smell its arse. It ain't fun and they all have to smell somewhat. To quote Jules Winfield, my man in Amsterdam, a sewer rat may taste like pumpkin pie but I wouldn't eat the filthy mutha. The movies are all disappointing. If I have to look at it from my perspective and interest only, I would say the Happening was the biggest letdown followed by Australia. I had no interest in seeing any of the other pics on the list and I have skipped both of these too, just because results (box office, but primarily critically) have been so disappointing. I wanted to see both of them but I may not end up seeing either - even on video - though I think Australia is a better bet than Happening to see the inside of my blu-ray player.
Scott Lumley: Good Lord, that is one craptacular list. The Day the Earth Stood Still is the clear-cut success of the group and the rest of those "films" are pretty much sucktacular. I certainly hope that someone in charge at that studio takes a long hard look at how they're doing business, because this can't and shouldn't continue.
Max Braden: I'm tempted by The Happening and Australia, but really it has to be Meet Dave. The Happening may not have looked fantastic, but its $30 million opening was a big improvement on Shyamalan's previous release. Australia promised big things but that kind of movie is more of a leggy performer. With Meet Dave you had a box office performer with a great track record, a trailer that should have been able to appeal to kids, and a wide summer release. Result? $1,744 per theater. That's awful. I might put the X-Files in the more disappointing range because of its fanbase except that the trailer offered nothing so my expectations were not high. I was surprised that The Day the Earth Stood Still didn't open at $50 million, but really the only data comparison I was going on was I Am Legend, which starred a much more lively Will Smith.
Jason Lee: I agree with Max 100%, Happening, Australia and Meet Dave would be my top three with Dave taking home the bacon. You have to imagine that Fox went into this year thinking that cumulatively, at the very very least, these three films would combine to make $150 million. Granted, Australia is still in theatres but they each stand at $64 million, $37 million and $11 million. That's a collective "ugh" I think from everyone at Fox.
Dear Writers' Strike: We hate you.
Kim Hollis: What do you think of the relative quality of December's major releases?
David Mumpower: In terms of the blockbusters, lackluster is the applicable word. If Bedtime Stories and Yes Man do what is expected of them, we have a pair of big hits. If either of them fails on the heels of The Day The Earth Stood Still disappointing, December box office is in trouble. The good news is that the major awards contenders are unusually viable from a commercial perspective. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Frost/Nixon are both titles that should earn north of $50 million, and Reservation Road has the huge selling point of being a Titanic reunion. Effectively, the smaller titles are stronger, which should absorb some of the damage from the frontline titles being mediocre.
Brandon Scott: I'm reserving judgment until I get to see the ones that have a big interest to me like Benjamin Button and The Wrestler (this may not be considered major, though), but early reviews scare me. So what seemed as though it could have been a great month is off to a rocky start. There's still some time to go, though, and the list of films of interest to me is long so check back with me on this in a month.
Joel Corcoran: I think the overall quality of the wide releases is much better compared to last year. The blockbusters as a group aren't as good as December 2007, simply because there doesn't seem to be an equivalent to I Am Legend. The films this month seem to be about on par with National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and The Golden Compass (all of which opened a year ago). But the films that you might call "mid-majors" are much better than the crop we saw a year ago - or even several years ago.
Scott Lumley: I haven't been very impressed so far, although I have added Milk and the Wrestler to my "Go See" list. However I'm fairly certain that we have a potential box office supernova coming in Yes Man. It's the first real pure Jim Carrey comedy we've had in years, right in the middle of what has been the most horrific economic downturn in the last 50 years. Timing is everything, and this one is perfectly positioned to pull in some impressive box office numbers.
Jason Lee: Apart from some of the really great indie/Oscar fare that's coming out, I think this December is pretty pathetic. Like David said, you could have really only pointed to The Day The Earth Stood Still, Yes Man and Bedtime Stories as "blockbuster fare," and even some of those are questionable. Couple this with a Will Smith picture that's more Pursuit of Happyness than I Am Legend that you have a decidedly mediocre December.
Reagen Sulewski: Really, it's only recently that we've come to expect much out of December releases. What has been happening in the past couple of years is that Christmas week hasn't quite lived up to expectations, which is really what makes or breaks films. We're due for a random breakout film this year.
Can we just make a poop joke and be done with it?
Kim Hollis: Delgo opened to $511,920 and had a historically low per-venue average of $237. Say something funny about Delgo.
David Mumpower: Whogo? Alternately, Dude you're not getting a Delgo.
Joel Corcoran: "Is that a Delgo in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me?"
Brandon Scott: What's funny is I haven't foggiest idea of what this is? This isn't a movie - is it? It can't be. I know Delgo in Spanish means "of the go"...clearly moviegoers didn't. Go, that is.
Scott Lumley: This film has been in production since 2001, had a clever viral marketing campaign behind it and some very top notch voice talent as well. And with all that and a fairly wide release to 2,160 screens it made $511,920, which is $115k less than Frost/Nixon made on 39 screens. That's not a typo, Frost/Nixon was outgunned 55 to 1 and still handily beat Delgo's box office for the weekend in very limited release. To me, that almost makes up for the $92 million that Beverly Hills Chihuahua made.
Almost.
Daron Aldridge: Just when you thought that Igor was the biggest animated flop of the year, Delgo pulls a Doogal.
Kim Hollis: That's not even enough to buy a used Yugo.
This is the least successful performance for a wide release in box office history. So, congrats!
Jason Lee: I think that Fox/Walden must be thanking their lucky stars right about now.
Reagen Sulewski: The producers would have been better off giving their money to Bernie Madoff.
(Do I have to wait for my trophy for most instantly dated joke, or can I get it right now?)