Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
February 18, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Do you think that Confessions of a Shopaholic is one of the films most directly adversely affected by today's economic climate?
Tim Briody: Yes. As I posited in the Friday numbers column, in this wintry economic climate, do people want to see a movie about a self-professed "shopaholic?" We want escapism! Not to seethe at the attractive women who buys everything in sight.
Brandon Scott: I doubt that had anything to do with it, to be honest. It was a movie that just didn't have any real cache. I think it is what it is, in truth.
Shane Jenkins: Eh, I'm still blaming the casting of Isla over the content. If this were a Reese Witherspoon movie, no one would have cared about the consumerism. We probably even would have called it "escapism" when it performed well.
David Mumpower: I've got Tim's back in this tag team affair against Brandon and Shane. I absolutely think that the movie's premise, already annoying, was decimated by real life events. Who wants to go to a movie to see a woman struggling under the weight of seemingly infinite credit card bills? They get enough of that at home. People want fat guys on Segways, not hot chicks seeking out better accounting practices.
Kim Hollis: I think there's some truth to the fact that people don't want to see someone being economically stupid in the climate as it exists today. This was very poorly timed.
Really, you'd think that villainous banks is a concept whose time has come.
Kim Hollis: Clive Owen's The International failed to materialize as a Valentine's Day compromise choice, grossing only $10 million. What went wrong with this Sony release?
Brandon Scott: The trailer in the theater was horrific. The star is not bankable, though I like him as an actor. Even having Naomi Watts held little interest to most, and she was all but hidden in the trailers as well. This was, wisely I suspect, looked at as standard fare in a crowded marketplace. Why not see Taken over this if you had the choice, and I think that's what people did. Now Clive Owen and Julia Roberts should see much better results in next month's Duplicity. Owen isn't cut out to be a star/lead here and I don't think he really cares, either. Now, he would have been a good choice for Bond and that would have made him a star, but at the same time, I still don't see people turning out for Daniel Craig in anything but Bond movies. Stardom is a finicky thing to understand.
Shane Jenkins: I'm a fan of The International's director, Tom Tykwer, who also gave us Run Lola Run and the best segment of Paris je t'aime. He's one of the true stylists working in cinema today, but if there's any visual flair in The International, they've done a terrific job of hiding it in ads. This looks like a by-the-numbers corporate thriller, so much so that a few weeks ago I was willing to swear I had seen this movie already. If there's anything special about it, then the dreadful marketing campaign is to blame.
David Mumpower: I agree with Shane all around on the subject of Tykwer. Run Lola Run is a personal favorite of mine; its ten second character biographies are among the most innovative film ideas of the past 20 years. I also think that the topic we just covered with the economy impacting Confessions of a Shopaholic applies here. The idea of an overlord banking institution whose power borders on economic omnipotence...well, let's just say that this premise would have been easier to sell a year ago. It's hard for me to imagine the same people begging for government handouts and claiming they can't work for a lousy $500 grand a year creating the sort of unstoppable financial juggernaut postured in The International. The only thing retroactively funnier would be Michael Phelps having a cameo in Pineapple Express.
Max Braden: I don't think corporate greed is a hard sell, but when you get all Syriana about an issue, it's hard to follow. Even with all the gunplay the trailer didn't imply anything easy, like suit+hockey mask+death by slashing manila papercut. Hey, I've got a million dollar idea: let's remake The International with a bunch of unknown teens!
Movies=$$$
Kim Hollis: Here are some current tallies for 2009 releases:
Hotel for Dogs - $60.2 million
My Bloody Valentine 3-D - $50.9
Gran Torino - $128.9 million (we know it technically released in December but it made its bucks in 2009)
Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $110.5 million
Coraline - $35.5 million (in ten days)
He's Just Not That Into You - $55.1 million (in ten days)
Taken - $77.9 million (in 17 days)
Rank the top three biggest box office surprises of the year to date and explain why.
Tim Briody: The gap between Paul Blart as the biggest surprise and whatever is #2 is absolutely gigantic. I'm sure many of us here didn't even think it would make its production budget back, let alone be the first 2009 release to cross $100 million. Huge gap aside, Taken is pretty solidly #2. Legs like this are pretty rare these days. Gran Torino is probably third. I don't think anyone thought "Get Off My Lawn: The Movie" would be Eastwood's most financially successful film.
Brandon Scott: I would remove Torino from that list on general principle, plus in my case, I saw it eons ago so I wouldn't include it, but it is a huge surprise and would be right there with Blart at the top. However, given the above criteria, I would pretty much say it is:
Blart, Taken, and HJNTIY. While we pretty much have addressed these individually in previous MMQB's, Blart killed for likable lead and "comedy". Taken for intelligent lead and nice trailer and premise. HJNTIY for the crossover appeal of the wide array of name actors in the film. But Blart and Torino are the biggest surprises, since Torino is vastly overrated. Blart is just vastly overweight...sorry, Kevin. Tongue in cheek, amigo.
Shane Jenkins: Yup - Blart, Taken, Torino. Which is coincidentally the name of my new ska band. You should hear our cover of Tiffany's cover of I Think We're Alone Now.
Jim Van Nest: I hate to just jump on board with everyone else, but how could Paul Blart NOT be the #1 surprise of early 2009? This looked like a straight-to-DVD release that the studio decided they'd try to squeeze a few bucks out of in theaters and it's become the biggest hit of the year, so far. The legs on Taken would probably be #2, with Friday the 13th's opening coming in as my #3. (I know...it wasn't on Kim's list...but a record-setting weekend? For yet another Jason flick? No way.) This being said, I think Paul Blart is so ahead of the others on this list that when we start recapping the 2009 Box Office stories of the year, Blart will likely be the only one on that list that we're still talking about with that cocked to the side, confused puppy dog look.
David Mumpower: I agree that Paul Blart: Mall Cop is the biggest surprise and I think that Jim is right that it's going to be a huge factor when we rank the top 12 film industry stories of 2009. Having said that, two straight weeks of almost imperceptible drops from Taken has it narrowing the gap, even allowing for the fact that Paul Blart went up instead of down this week. On the surface, there is very little about Taken that seems marketable. The fact that it's a slam dunk for $100 million is every bit as surprising as Paul Blart is. Choosing the third film is tricky. Since Gran Torino got a token 2008 release, I'm going to take it out of the equation for now. Coraline deserves some consideration, because it has already made more in 11 days than Stardust made in its entire theatrical run. My Bloody Valentine 3-D and Hotel for Dogs have combined for $110 million between them, which is also a dubya-tee-eff statement. In the end, I have to give the edge to He's Just Not That Into You, though. It's currently sitting at $58.8 million and appears likely to become a $100 million movie, a scenario I had not envisioned for the title.
Max Braden: With the benefit of hindsight, I'm going to say that Paul Blart isn't the biggest surprise. It's Sandler-esque and not very far over $100 million. But nearly $130 million for Eastwood? That's a huge surprise. Is anyone of his generation still taking on lead roles? Would you have expected him to be able to cross $100 million another time after Million Dollar Baby? Would you have expected Gran Torino to have beaten any of the other titles? I think after Gran Torino, the biggest surprise is Taken, which looked like a cheap thriller dumped in February but is performing like every weekend is opening weekend. Blart is #3 in my book.