Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
March 3, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience earned only $12.5 million this weekend, less than Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour earned on its first Saturday alone. Do we officially have our first box office bomb of 2009?
Les Winan: Nick Jonas just found out what happens when you dump Miley Cyrus.
Joel Corcoran: No matter how you look at it, I think it does count as the first bomb of 2009. The Jonas Brothers should've completely dominated the box office given their immense fan base, and they barely squeaked by Slumdog Millionaire in its 16th weekend. Maybe they should just stick to making music. Or perhaps they should consider a television or web-based show, a la The Monkees.
Tim Briody: Well, Joel, they do have a Disney series coming up that is essentially the same plot as Hannah Montana so they've got that going for them. I wouldn't call the movie performance an outright bomb, but it's certainly one of the biggest disappointments of the year, hands down. Perhaps they should have gone the same route as the Hannah Montana movie did and claim it's for one weekend only.
Joel Corcoran: Huh ... I had no idea that the Jonas Brothers had a TV show coming out. See, this is why I need my nieces and nephew to grow up faster. I'm missing that critical tween pop culture demographic in my friends and advisors. Now, ask me anything about Dora the Explorer or Blues Clues, and I'm golden.
Brandon Scott: I think when you record a concert, you are really just trying to get more dollars out of a performance. Yes, analysts thought it would do better but this happens, kind of like when it rains frogs. If Jonas Brothers was an actual movie, I might look at it differently, but I don't buy it as a "bomb". I bet it already surpassed a minuscule production budget. Disappointment, sure. Bomb, no.
Eric Hughes: I agree disappointment is the better word here. Another reason why is the fact that it finished $4 million behind a Tyler Perry movie that dropped nearly 60%.
Reagen Sulewski: It's going to take a couple of weeks to really suss out if this is a bomb or not, since it was a) pretty cheap to make but b) in a genre that's not known for its staying power, but if I may speculate wildly, I wonder if we're not seeing our first film hit by the recession. It's long been a pet theory of mine that in tough economic times, teen spending habits are hit first since they're least likely to have money of their own, and more likely to have those funds cut off first.
Sean Collier: I do happen to have a five-year-old cousin, and I can report that the amount of her Hannah Montana merchandise outnumbers her Jonas Brothers merchandise by a factor of about ten to one. Disney would like the Brothers to be as big a deal as Miley is, but it's just not the case, and the result this weekend reflected that. Probably a bit of a disappointment, but a 3-D concert film failing to pack 'em in? I wouldn't call that a bomb.
David Mumpower: I agree with Sean's and Brandon's points. At the end of the day, everyone in the industry appears guilty of the lazy lateral thinking that the Jonas Brothers are just as good as Hannah Montana. That's like saying Nature Boy Buddy Landell was as good as Ric Flair (about three people reading this get that reference). While this movie has not matched even half of its tracking expectations, it was dirt cheap to do and by concert movie standards, it's one of the biggest debuts ever. This is for a band whom none of us could pick out of a police lineup. And along those lines, I suspect the movie would have done better if the boys had chosen to beat up Rihanna instead of putting on chastity rings. Girls that age like bad boys. Has Team Jonas learned nothing from Twilight?
Disney is currently growing the Next Big Thing in a carefully cultivated test lab
Kim Hollis: Should we be focusing on the fact that a movie from a band no one over 18 cares about made more than $10 million or should we be concentrating on the fact that Disney Channel films, including the Jonas Brothers and High School Musical 3, seem to be performing below tracking and expectations?
Brandon Scott: A bit of both. The easy answer is to simply lower expectations. High School Musical 3 still did $90 million against an $11 million budget. I don't see why that is any sort of failure. I think that's an absurd notion. Pundits are wrong sometimes. Hannah Montana did $65 million. Jonas might end up doing $25-30 million. Even so, it's a concert movie...keep proper perspective. Jay-Z's Fade to Black did $700,000! Seinfeld's comedy doc movie didn't do anything. The Jonas number is still a big number by comparison. That cant be discounted.
Joel Corcoran: I think we need to focus on the tracking and expectations portion. Movie attendance is up significantly this year already, so you'd think that with more people, tracking would be better and lead to more solid expectations. And from what I've seen, tracking estimates for most other movies have been fairly accurate. So, what is it about Disney Channel films? Are these two movies - High School Musical and Jonas Brothers - just aberrations? Is there some reason why tracking for children's films isn't as accurate as that for films directed at teens, college students, and adults? Or is there something else going on?
Reagen Sulewski: The thing with teens is that ... ooh shiny!
David Mumpower: I feel Joel is asking the right question here. Maybe we have been expecting too much of films that launch from basic cable programming into theaters. For the longest time, no American Idol artist could make a dent on album sales charts with the logic being that what was fun for free wasn't worth paying for. It's entirely possible the same phenomenon exists with these Disney properties. Even so, I disagree with Brandon that High School Musical 3's assertion that there should be no complaints about its box office run. If ever a film should have made $150 million, it was that one, but Disney got it out too late in Reagen's Shiny Saturation Cycle of Tweendom. With regards to the Jonas Brothers concert film, I am confident we would be looking at this in a much different light had there never been a Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour released into theaters. If not for that, we'd be saying, "This is more than double what a Martin Scorsese/Rolling Stones concert movie made in its entire domestic run." So, I find the question of whether Hannah Montana should be removed entirely from the discussion a fascinating one with no real right or wrong answer.
Beware the Shiny Saturation Cycle of Tweendom, Hannah Montana! Beware!
Kim Hollis: Does this turn of events alter your opinion any for your expected performance of Hannah Montana: The Movie, which is due to be released in about six weeks?
Brandon Scott: Yeah, probably so. Her last concert flick was only a year ago. The craze will not be there the second time around. People won't queue up for tickets and celebs won't have to ask around town to try to secure them for their kids like happened for the concert. Sure, it'll temper expectations, but that's a gooooood thing.
Marty Doskins: Why do you say that's a good thing? Are you just hoping Hannah Montana goes away? If that's the case, I'm sure millions of little kids and the Disney Channel would disagree with you. Just because you may be out of the age range for liking Ms. Montana, it doesn't mean that she should go away. I'm sure when you were growing up, you had interests that annoyed your parents or other adults around you.
By the way, I think this Jonas Brothers result does lower my expectations for Hannah Montana. But I still think it'll do pretty decent.
Joel Corcoran: Hannah Montana fans are numerous and very committed. They utterly adore Hannah Montana at a visceral level, regardless of how many movies she puts out (and given the absolute dearth of good role models for younger girls, I don't think this is a bad thing at all). In contrast, the Jonas Brothers are just another boy band by comparison. Also, you have to look at the fact that six weeks from now will be the beginning or ending weekend of spring break for a lot of families. They'll be looking for cheaper alternatives to destination travel for a spring break trip, and making Hannah Montana one event of a "staycation" may be just the ticket for them. So, I think the way the Jonas Brothers movie tanked is a warning sign, but it's not death blow by any stretch.
Reagen Sulewski: Dear Miley - read the Mandy Moore guidebook. Cover to cover. Follow it religiously.
Les Winan: The good news there is that Ryan Adams will almost certainly be available again soon.
David Mumpower: Some others have hedged their bets here. I'm going to be a bit more blunt. I just cut my expectations for a Hannah Montana movie in half. I had been thinking this was a lock to smoke High School Musical 3's $90.5 million. Now, I'm wondering if it will even edge out the concert movie's $65.3 million. While I did just say that the Jonas Brothers have no business being directly compared to Hannah Montana, I find myself fearing over-saturation of that product. I think Disney may have missed their window again here, at least in terms of theatrical box office. They've literally made billions off of the High School Musical and Hannah Montana brands, neither of which existed in 2005.
Kim Hollis: As Reagen has already mentioned, the shelf life for these fads is so short for a couple of reasons. The first is that tweens naturally have a short attention span and quickly turn their minds to other cool things. The other reality is that as these kids get older, it's just not "cool" ("cool" is probably such an uncool word to use here) to like the same things anymore. It gets even worse if a younger sibling starts to like the "uncool" thing. I think it's very possible that with both High School Musical and Miley Cyrus, the kids that liked them last year and two years ago have grown up a little and moved on to different, more mature things.
Fatality
Kim Hollis: Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li, a film with a budget of $50 million, opened to only $4.7 million this weekend. Did Fox mishandle this project or was it doomed from the outset?
Tim Briody: Releasing this around the time of the release of Street Fighter IV was a masterstroke, but on the other hand that's probably what most of the target audience was doing all weekend instead of seeing this. And being a video game adaptation, are we positive Uwe Boll didn't have a hand in this?
Brandon Scott: It's a mishandle, because it bombed...I am sure they are rethinking story, marketing strategy, hired actors, etc. But I think the title was in serious trouble anyway. It's not like Street Fighter is a fresh video game. The thing is well over a decade plus removed from its prime. There have already been films based on it, ask Jean-Claude Van Damme. There wasn't tons going for this one and it showed. That being said, a $4-5 million opening is truly pathetic. I think Punisher 2 beat that, so that's bad, no question about it.
Max Braden: I don't think the different era is necessarily a harm - Transformers was a hit, GI Joe stands to do decent business, TMNT opened to $24 million only two years ago, and we just saw a revival of Friday the 13th score big. I think the difference with Street Fighter is that they needed to sell it on more than just the name and genre. This was Elektra (which only opened to $14 million) without the stars or spiffy costumes. Plus, the trailer was shot in a lot of darkness so I couldn't even see much of what it was about. In short, they gave audiences no reason to see it.
Joel Corcoran: I agree that it's a little bit of both. This movie was never set to be a blockbuster simply because the Street Fighter fan base isn't that big, and it was never a title that had a fantastically committed following to begin with. At least not compared to Transformers, G.I. Joe, or other toys and videogames. However, Fox completely mishandled the marketing behind this film. Apparently, they made no effort to market directly to niches of Street Fighter fans and videogame players in general, and what publicity they did put out was poorly done (as Max pointed out). With some decent marketing, this film easily could've hit $12 million, and slightly above $15 million wasn't impossible.
Eric Hughes: All I can say is I don't know of *anyone* that was excited to see this movie. I mean come on, was anyone expecting that Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li would lead water cooler talk this week?
Reagen Sulewski: I'm as shocked at the failure of this as I am at the failure of that Masters of the Universe movie with Dolph Lundgren and Courtney Cox. Which is to say, not very.
David Mumpower: More than anything else, what I take from this is that it's a cautionary tale for Microsoft on the dangers of waiting too long for a Halo movie. The 1994 release of Street Fighter, a garbage title that always had its cynical eye on the home video market, opened 45% better. Keeping in mind that the average ticket price today is $7.18 as opposed to $4.08 then, it's hard to describe The Legend of Chun Li as anything other than a bomb, especially against a production budget of $50 million. Street Fighter was THE multi-player videogame experience of the early 1990s and Tim is right that timing a movie with the release of the heavily praised Street Fighter 4 was a savvy move in theory, just not in exercise. This is a great example of the mercurial nature of movie-making. All of the right decisions in the corporate office mean nothing if the script sucks and the movie looks terrible.
Marty Doskins: Very good point, David, about Halo. They already seem to be having trouble coming up with improvements in the game series. People losing interest can't be that far behind. If they can catch fanboy interest at its peak (or close to it), they can definitely rake in some bigger box office numbers.
Jai ho!
Kim Hollis: Slumdog Millionaire received the biggest box office bounce of any Academy Award winner for Best Picture since the mid-1990s. This weekend, its 15th in release, marks the first time it finished in the top three. Do you think this was one last hurrah or do you believe it could have a holdover along the lines of My Big Fat Greek Wedding for the next few months?
Joel Corcoran: I'd love to be able to say Slumdog Millionaire will be a holdover, but my gut instinct is that this weekend was simply a last hurrah. I think a lot of people simply didn't know what the movie was all about, but then decided to catch it this weekend after seeing that it won the Oscar.
Brandon Scott: It's not hanging around for a few more months. It's been out for four months already. This doesn't diminish what a remarkable story the film is. But let's be honest, Summer is right around the corner. Watchmen is dropping next week. Slumdog might stay in the top ten for two or three more weeks (still a remarkable feat) but it is fading after that. It's not hitting $170 million or more or anything like that...uh, I don't think it will, anyway.
Tim Briody: Slumdog Millionaire is a rare Best Picture winner that hadn't already run its theatrical course by the time of the actual awards (and was more accessible than, say, No Country for Old Men). It's going to have another couple weeks of solid business before it's shuffled out by new releases.
Reagen Sulewski: The last Best Picture winner to still be in this many theatres the week after it won was Million Dollar Baby, which went on to add about $35 million to its final total. Slumdog has the benefit of being a buzz film on top of this, with a lot of people still curious about it, so I actually see another $50 million as a possibility. This is a film that's made $115 million so far with its most lucrative weekend figure being this last one. Let's not dismiss the power of small numbers just yet.
David Mumpower: I lean toward the side of our numbers guru. In glancing over the schedule from now until the start of May, I don't see enough content to make an exhibitor push a strong moneymaker like this out of the theater. I think it's going to wind up north of $150 million, beating The Curious Case of Benjamin Button handily. That's something I would not have been believed possible at the start of the year. Button had a $60 million lead in mid-January, for God's sake. Slumdog Millionaire had already been in theaters for two months by that point.