Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
March 10, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: What do you expect Watchmen to do from now until the end of its domestic release?
Brandon Scott: Fall sharply. The second weekend will be telling. It seems reviews were pretty solid overall but that is not going to drive women to the box office. As a way, way early projection, now I think we are looking at $150 or so box office. I thought this thing would break $200 million.
Max Braden: I see probable repeat viewings from serious fans but it's too long for most audiences to see again. Knowing may drain off some box office as well. I expect somewhere around $130 million.
Tim Briody: I think it struggles to $100 million. It won't pull a Jonas Brothers, but look out below next weekend.
Daron Aldridge: As I mentioned earlier, I know of people who consciously waited. I think there could easily be a healthy portion of viewers that will show up next weekend (I hope at least). Overall, my WAG would be for an end result from a 2.55 multiplier (lower than 300's 2.97 but the same as Hellboy - another spring cult comic film) for $141 million.
Pete Kilmer: I think an end total of around $150 million is doable. I'm curious as to how the international market will play to this property.
Craig Hemenway: As mentioned elsewhere, I expect slightly under $150 million domestic for this movie. It should have a poor multiplier even for a comic book/action film. Call it a 2.6 multiplier. Pete raises a great question: How does the international market relate to what is essentially a slice-of-life movie based in an alternate 1980s America? It's all in the international marketing, although I expect the film to do well in Britain simply due to the Moore connection.
Reagen Sulewski: Ultimately, I don't think this knocked the socks off anyone that wasn't already familiar with the material, and it's used up a tremendous amount of its core audience already. I would say somewhere between $100 and $125 million.
Sean Collier: I think Reagan's right with his final guess, though I'd put it on the $125 million side of things. I'd expect next weekend to stay pretty big, but a sharp decline after that. As for the international question, it's hard to say; it'll probably play big in Asia but weak in Europe. I wouldn't expect saving grace from the global markets - that'll come from DVD.
David Mumpower: We are in a day and age where a 2.6 multiplier is what passes for great for a comic book film. Conversely, we've seen with some unusual properties such as Cloverfield and Friday the 13th that a 2.0 or lower final multiplier is possible for the most frontloaded of titles. I strongly suspect that it's going to fall somewhere in the range of 2.0 to 2.2, meaning I'm seeing a best case scenario of just over $120 million. In terms of foreign box office, Watchmen was the number one film abroad with its best performance in England due to the Alan Moore connection as Craig had predicted. Its $27.5 million overseas is nothing Earth-shaking, though. Watchmen appears to be a second tier hit rather than a true blockbuster, and due to the court resolution that forced Warner Bros. to hand over a portion of the gross to Fox, I have trouble envisioning a scenario wherein it exits theaters in the black. Warner Bros. is not getting all of the foreign gates, they're splitting the domestic gates with Legendary Pictures and have to bribe Fox, too. Watchmen probably would have been a profitable endeavor if not for that court case but under the new circumstances, it won't make its money until DVD.
What if Wolverine does an extended song and dance number?
Kim Hollis: Does the performance of Watchmen alter your opinion any on either X-Men Origins: Wolverine or Star Trek?
Brandon Scott: Not at all. Watchmen's awareness to the fanboy was near nil coming into all of this. Star Trek is a universal name and Wolverine, while clearly behind Star Trek in recognition, comes from an established name franchise. This should have no bearing on those box office figures. What will have bearing is how good those movies are. I think Star Trek is gonna suck and Wolverine looks pretty good at this point.
Max Braden: Wolverine didn't need any boost; Jackman was the star of the X-Men series and the trailer delivers everything fans could hope for. Watchmen may help Star Trek in a "the movie turned out better than the trailer" way. But with different people responsible for each project, any bump is going to be small.
Daron Aldridge: Agreed. Other the obvious overlap in fanbase, I am not seeing Watchmen as impacting any other films' reception. Wow, Brandon, I have to say that I am surprised at your expectation of Star Trek. I haven't heard anyone be that pessimistic about it. While I am not a fan of Kirk and Co., the trailer at least got my attention but probably not my money (for what that's worth).
Tim Briody: Not in the least. The three projects, to me, are apples, oranges and, uh, another fruit of your choice.
Pete Kilmer: Negative. The Wolverine movie has three things going for it: Hugh Jackman, Wolverine, and a rating that isn't R. Star Trek has tremendous brand recognition (though a little faded) and if the trailers are any indication of the final product (Great Bird of the Galaxy willing) then we just might see a total re-ignition of the franchise. But Watchmen will have zero impact on these two properties.
Craig Hemenway: I agree with Pete, Tim and Max. Given the broad-based recognition of both the X-Men series and Jackman at this point, there's no real benefit or detriment to Wolverine: Origins from Watchmen's performance. Likewise, although Watchmen and Star Trek may share a significant portion of a fanbase, they're sufficiently different that success of one doesn't impact the other.
The more interesting question to me is: Does the success of Heroes (or failure, depending on your view of the last two seasons) impact Star Trek in any way? Ignoring the casting link, the base of viewers would seem to be much closer.
David Mumpower: Wolverine is an entity unto itself to a degree. It has the X-Men pedigree although I don't expect it to open as well as either of the last two X-Men films did since it's a standalone project. Star Trek is a more intriguing comparison. That's never been a franchise that opened huge ($30.7 million is the best yet managed) and there is only one $100 million earner thus far (although three of them inflation-adjust to the $190+ million range). There is also a wild card element to it since the new film reboot scorches the earth and starts over again. It feels similar in theory to what we've just witnessed with Watchmen. It is trying something new and seems to have a lot of reason for concern from the core audience. So, I am hedging my best on Star Trek a bit more because of what we have seen with Watchmen and that will go double if Watchmen's legs are poor.