Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
March 16, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Race to Witch Mountain won the box office weekend with $24.4 million. Is this more, less, or about what you expected the movie to make?
David Mumpower: I think that this was around the range Disney had anticipated for the film when it was in the planning stages. After the warm reception to early trailers, however, as well as the strong early year performances of so many wide releases, I have to think they had bumped that number up a bit. This means they got left somewhat high and dry when the film wound up doing mid-$20s instead of mid-$30s as looked possible if not likely a month ago.
Kim Hollis: I have to think there was money left on the table somehow. Given the fact that people seem to have warm fuzzies about going to the cineplex this year, I think there should have been a better way to capture that family audience on opening weekend. With that said, though, this is pretty much in line with The Game Plan, Dwayne Johnson's previous Disney family film. That movie debuted to $22.9 million and then legged it out to a $90.7 million finish domestically. I think it's possible we could see similar behavior here, though the fact that Witch Mountain targets a slightly older audience than The Game Plan might damage it somewhat.
Jason Lee: Personally, I cannot for the life of me imagine this film opening much higher. The premise of the film and the advertising demonstrated that the demographic of this film was almost certainly going to be very young . . . and they're rarely able to take films into blockbuster status (I'm ignoring Alvin and the Chipmunks for now). This just seemed like it was destined to be a lackluster film from the beginning.
Pete Kilmer: I think this is about right for this movie, and I believe it's going to have legs. It will be a solid hit for Disney and The Rock.
Joel Corcoran: It's pretty much exactly what I expected -- a good, solid opening based on fans of The Rock and those of us who grew up with Witch Mountain. This film has an interesting mix of modern adventure thriller and nostalgia. Those of us who were growing up in the late '70s remember the two Witch Mountain movies, and now we're taking our kids, nieces, and nephews to the remake. The fact that Dwayne Johnson is establishing quite a career in kid-oriented action movies is probably a bigger draw, but I think the nostalgia aspect will give this movie longer legs than we might expect.
Max Braden: It was close to what I was expecting, but I think they could have pulled in a little more if they'd cut the trailer differently. All you really saw in the trailer was the cab ride. I don't think this will perform as well as The Game Plan. Witch Mountain's reviews are as dismal as Pink Panther 2's, which has only earned $34 million in five weeks.
Kim Hollis: That might fly, Max, if The Game Plan's reviews were better. They're not. It was 27% fresh at RottenTomatoes, while Witch Mountain has it beat at 37%. Reviews for these sorts of movies really don't matter a lot of the time. People ignore them if kids think the movie is entertaining enough.
Reagen Sulewski: I think sticking mostly with the cab ride was smart. It showed off the humor of the film, which is what distinguishes it from a dozen other films aimed at pre-teens. Anybody can stick aliens in their film, but you need something that's going to draw in people beyond "ooh, spacey".
Les Winan: Unless of course it's a movie marketing campaign built around Kevin Spacey.
Calvin Trager: Based on his body of work this decade it would be more like "Eww, Spacey"
David Mumpower: I just assumed he was talking about K-PAX.
There's always a home for him in the WWE, even when he's 77.
Kim Hollis: What do you think about The Rock's Hollywood career to date? Do you think his career is on an upward trend or a downward spiral?
David Mumpower: I'm never living down the whole "The Rock is the next Tom Cruise" thing, am I? I think that his career has had an interesting fluctuation thus far. After The Scorpion King earned $90.6 million, he made a wonderful film in the Rundown that was largely ignored by audiences with only $47.6 million. Then, he made a terrible film, Walking Tall, that earned almost as much with $46.2 million. When Be Cool came out and earned $55.8 million, it looked likely that we knew his box office range and then Doom failed completely at $28.2 million and he appeared done as a box office factor.
Then, he returned to his football roots with Gridiron Gang, which earned a better than expected $38.4 million and The Gameplan, a surprise $90.7 million blockbuster. He followed that up with his biggest hit to date, Get Smart with $130.3 million, and has now picked another savvy project with Race to Witch Mountain, which appears likely to earn $75 million or so. That means his last three films will have all earned at least $75 million and averaged almost $100 million. Summarizing, his career has recovered nicely since Doom and these Disney family-friendly films appear to be his forte. I'm no longer convinced he's going to be the next great action hero, but I also think that one right role could change all that for him. It has to be frustrating for him that his best film, The Rundown, garnered almost no attention, though.
Kim Hollis: I think that he's well-liked and a generally reliable opener at this point, particularly in the family film arena, which is not something I would have expected a few years ago. He's funny and warm and kids seem to respond to him. I'm sure there may come a time where he gets a nifty role in a film that rakes in some bucks, but I also think he has a comfort zone at the moment. Tooth Fairy, due out later this year, is yet another kid-targeted flick. I'd love to see him take some chances and do some different things, but given that none of those types of projects have really worked out for him, I kind of can't blame him for not doing so.
Jason Lee: Agree with Kim, there is certainly something endearing to The Rock in a family film. That said, I think he's perilously close to being pigeonholed as Disney's go-to-guy for schlocky fare.
Tim Briody: Well, it's telling that he's officially dropped the wrestling/stage name and is now just Dwayne Johnson but we'll still call him The Rock forever and ever. That said, as someone who always loved his wrestling promos, I still think the right vehicle for him is an action comedy, since he perfected the "total jackass you wanted to root for" role in his WWE days and that just works in these films. Hell, he could even do a heel turn in the movies and play the bad guy and people would probably pay to see him get his ass kicked since he can play that role just fine too.
Pete Kilmer: Well, I think David is counting Be Cool and Get Smart as "Dwayne Johnson" movies and they weren't. He was a major support player in those two films (and Southland Tales). In none of those films was he placed to carry them. They did use him in advertising, but he wasn't the lead in those at all. He took those roles to expand what he can do and in the case of Get Smart it paid off. After the failure of The Rundown to explode - and it really should have as it's terrific - there just weren't any action comedies that were being seriously developed that he could take advantage of. This is a shame. I'd love to see The Rock in a John McClane/Bruce Willis kind of role. Hell, I'd love to see Bruce Willis and The Rock do a film together. As for The Rock being pigeonholed as a Disney actor...well it'd be good for his bankbook, but I really want him and Peter Berg (The Rundown) to do another film.
Joel Corcoran: I think Pete illustrates the dilemma that Dwayne Johnson faces. He's proven himself very capable as a major supporting actor in a variety of films, and as a lead in Scorpion King, but he's made most of his money lately in Disney-style kids movies. If he doesn't want to get penned in by that genre, he's going to have to take on some riskier roles and hope for a breakout film. He has the chops for it, but maybe the safe and dependable kid-flick is too much to give up. Though I do love the idea of a movie with both him and Bruce Willis together.
Max Braden: He was supposed to be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger and never made it, but that could be as much the market shifting from '80s action to a wider appeal. Still, to me it's interesting that he went to family friendly projects in half the time that Eddie Murphy did. Whether that's a demotion or just a horizontal career move is in the eye of the beholder. I'm sure Murphy isn't suffering for money, and Johnson doesn't have to either if he maintains an appeal for some markets.
Reagen Sulewski: Maybe it'll happen again someday, but people just don't want seem to want straight action franchises anymore, which is something that you really started to notice the shift on when Will Smith broke out with Men in Black. You can't be the next Schwarzenegger, because audiences aren't asking for it. Johnson kind of did the Will Smith thing for Witch Mountain, taking what looks like unexceptional product to the next level, so I think that's what he could continue to do for the next while - taking generic material and enhancing its curb appeal for a wider range of audiences.