Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 28, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Our first computer animated film of 2009, [tm:3868_]Monsters vs. Aliens[/tm] opens to pretty solid $16.7 million. March is uncharted territory for Pixar Animation, with most of their releases hitting in the summer season or November. I am drawn to a non-Pixar Disney release, Meet the Robinsons, as it opened on this weekend two years ago. That may only have earned $7.5 million on opening day, but I like the trajectory it took over the rest of the weekend, leading to 3.3 weekend multiplier. Giving that to Monsters vs. Aliens means it lands with $55.1 million for the weekend.
[tm:3234_]The Haunting in Connecticut[/tm]
Another week, another inexplicably large opening for a horror title. The Haunting in Connecticut earned $9.6 million on Friday. Good thing with a title like that, they have an entire 50 film franchise just waiting. Standard horror film rules apply here, so look for a weekend of $23.9 million.
[tm:4267_]12 Rounds[/tm]
While right now, you *can* see John Cena in theaters, that doesn't mean anyone did. 12 Rounds earned $1.8 million on Friday, actually throwing under the $2.3 million The Marine opened to back in October of 2006. Somehow that managed a 3.0 multiplier opening weekend but I don't see 12 Rounds quite matching that. Call it $4.8 million for the weekend.
Notable Holdovers
[tm:2259_]Knowing[/tm] is off a pretty much to be expected 48% to $4.7 million. Considering it didn't drive off a cliff like so many films this year, this can almost be considered a win. The overall weekend decline will stay under 50% as Knowing should have a second weekend of $13.8 million.
[tm:4192_]I Love You, Man[/tm] has the best hold of last week's openers, down 37% from last Friday to $4 million. Give the bromance $12 million in its second week.
[tm:4086_]Duplicity[/tm] drops a rather surprising 52%, proving my suspicions that [bp:755_]Clive Owen[/bp] has become box office poison. The weekend logically should get it under 50% but this film has been behaving unexpectedly so who knows? Look for a second weekend of $7.4 million.