Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
April 27, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Obsessed, a Fatal Attraction Clone from Screen Gems, won the weekend with $28.6 million. Please explain this.
Josh Spiegel: Though I'm grabbing at straws here, I'd attribute most of this film's success to marketing. Even though I had absolutely no interest in Obsessed, I couldn't go very far without seeing ads on TV and online. Having Beyonce Knowles in the mix is a big boost, and movies like Fatal Attraction can do well (obviously, if it's been 20+ years since that film and we're looking at one of its many clones). Overall, though, with the choices this weekend offered, people flocked to a movie that gives them a more visceral reaction (presumably). Or....well, I'm stumped otherwise. This one did baffle me a bit.
Pete Kilmer: Right weekend, solid cast with Beyone, Stringer Bell and Nikki from Heroes in it. I think it was just the right time and placement for a solid little thriller.
Reagen Sulewski: I definitely didn't expect it to break out to this margin, but overall I'm not actually all that shocked - I think it's a clever marriage of actress and subject. The (largely) female audience gets to do some wish fulfillment by putting themselves in Beyonce's shoes, and vicariously experience some revenge. I sort of touched on this in the forecast as well, but I think the fact that it crosses color lines with the two lead actresses is a big deal as well - it didn't have to be Ali Larter, but another black actress would not have made as big an impact for audiences in the role.
Jason Lee: I would have never expected this film to break the $25 mil mark on opening weekend so color me shocked. In retrospect, though, I have to credit the strong trailer and well-edited commercials which teed up a premise that audiences ALWAYS love to see: two hot women in a bruising catfight. Movies like Obsessed and the Kill Bill series (to a lesser extent) bring out the voyeurs in all of us.
Brandon Scott: It's definitely a high figure but there is no question that the dual race fatal attraction theme worked. I am siding with Josh that the trailer was a good one and intriguing. I am kind of into it. I am happy for Idris Elba and Larter as well, while undoubtedly most of the credit will go to Beyonce, and perhaps that is deserved from a marketing standpoint. Some have ripped on the title, but I think it is both simple and effective...and so, the box office stays hot.
Kim Hollis: I just have no idea why this broke out the way it did. A few weeks ago, when I saw some tracking that indicated this might be in the high $20 millions, I laughed. I thought they had confused it with another movie. I'm starting to feel like Grampa Simpson with regards to how out of touch I am.
Perhaps the correct answer is Secret Option E: Jerry O'Connell
Kim Hollis: Whose career gets the biggest bump from Obsessed - Ali Larter, Beyonce or Idris Elba? Or none of the above?
Josh Spiegel: Idris Elba or none of the above. Ali Larter and Beyonce Knowles have had plenty of face time in pop culture, the latter moreso. We may see Beyonce in more movies in the coming years, but I don't see this movie completely jump-starting that end of her career. Elba, however, was a relatively unknown actor (exception being those who saw him in HBO's brilliant "The Wire"), but within the last two months, he had a major guest role on The Office and now he's billed first (on the posters, at least) of the number-one movie of the weekend. He either gets a boost from this film (and a deserved one, even if the film's not high art) or no one gets one.
Pete Kilmer: I think this helps all of them. Beyonce gets a boost for being in a hit movie after bombing recently, Ali Larter gets some movie shine, and Idris Elba gets the biggest boost with this movie hitting and a terrific run recently on The Office. They all win.
Reagen Sulewski: Oh, this is Beyonce's win, all the way. Larter will never be lead material, Idris is kind of generically handsome and his name is non-memorably weird, but Beyonce got to prove that audiences will root for her. Of course, it all goes to hell if she ends up going Whitney on us.
Jason Lee: I agree with Reagen and Pete. Beyonce (like Zac Efron before her) now falls into the category of "This person can open a movie." I doubt that anyone truly could have attributed the success of Dreamgirls or Austin Powers in Goldmember to her prior to this.
Brandon Scott: No doubt Beyonce will get the credit but ultimately, I believe in time we will see this was more marketing/exciting trailer/black and white races that made the movie, rather than the actors involved. I am an Elba fan and it's good to see Larter having a long career, but Beyonce is the one who will get the most juice out of this, whether deserved or not. Things like this kind of seem bittersweet in a way, because I like feeling connected to "finding an actor" like Elba through "The Wire" and his work in RocknRolla. When an actor gets bigger, as apparently he is on The Office now and with this film opening big, we lose some of that...he's our guy sort of feeling. I don't know, maybe it's me, but I am happy that this movie did well...that is until I see it and probably come away disappointed, but there's always hope.
Kim Hollis: I'm going to go with none of the above. I believe this was a case of right place, right time, and it's not really a situation where people were rushing out to see one of these actors in particular. I would liken it instead to the Ashley Judd sort of thing that happened with Double Jeopardy. People weren't really going out to see Judd in that film, but rather to see a woman get some sort of vengeance. I think this is sort of a similar situation where the subject matter was interesting to a lot of people.
It's not even cool fighting, like Kung Fu Fighting.
Kim Hollis: Fighting, a film about, well, you know, finished in third place with a total of $11 million. Where does this fall on the good/bad/indifferent scale?
Pete Kilmer: I think it placed better than that Redbelt thing that was released....it'll be a DVD staple for the next six months or so.
Josh Spiegel: On the one hand, for a relatively low-budget film, Fighting's result is impressive. However, it seems like Channing Tatum is being pushed as a star in the making, what with this and a film like Step Up. This probably doesn't speak too well for his success with G.I. Joe (a film that's likely going to be successful with or without Tatum), but it's not a bad result by any means.
Reagen Sulewski: When you break this film down, it almost could have been a Step Up sequel, in which our dancer character falls on hard times or some garbage. Dancing's an inherently less appealing subject for Tatum's female fans (assuming he has non-gay male fans), which would explain the drop between those two films and this one. Often, these films make about eight bucks, so I can't see why they shouldn't be happy with how this turned out.
Brandon Scott: Yeah, I think it's a fair number, but it doesnt really say too much for Tatum, who has really been pushed as a star since Step Up. He kind of has an almost cross-eyed stare that doesn't seem to express what it always needs to, to me. I think he might be a capable actor, but even in a film like A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints to which this is actually a sequel of sorts, I am not on his bandwagon yet, and neither is America, either. We'll see.
Kim Hollis: I think it's an okay number. Really, something this generic looking probably should have made about $4 million and slunk off to DVD land. No one should be kidding themselves that Channing Tatum is any kind of star, though.
Iron Man doesn't have *that* much pop.
Kim Hollis: The Soloist, a film featuring the worst onscreen hairstyle since Yahoo Serious vanished into obscurity, opened to $9.7 million. What do you think of this performance?
Pete Kilmer: It wasn't what people are looking for in a film right now, I have to think Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx are very disappointed. But RDJ is shooting Iron Man 2 and has Sherlock Holmes coming so he's fine, and Jamie Foxx will find something else.
Josh Spiegel: I think that this film has a poor opening weekend, but I'd be surprised if it completely disappears within a few weeks. It's got potential just because lots of the older crowds may flock to this instead of the big blockbusters. I think the only person who may lose out a bit here is the film's director, Joe Wright; after Pride and Prejudice & Atonement, this may be a step down in prestige and profit.
Reagen Sulewski: If this was November or December, you could say there was a lot more in store for this, but with no Oscar season coming up, and with critics more or less abandoning this film to its fate, I have to say it's done. Jamie Foxx can go back to showing off his ridiculous natural hairline.
Jason Lee: To me, this movie looked like August Rush. Except that the main character in "The Soloist" isn't as strange.
Brandon Scott: This is a big downer...the film should never have been pushed back from late last year's original date. Mixed reviews hurt it and now my interest has significantly dwindled. I was rooting and excited for this one, now...its a "maybe" in theaters for me. Too bad, though I don't think it hurts either actor's appeal. It does go to show how much the vehicle is important to going to see a movie, though. These are two inarguably big stars together in a movie, and it flopped with a $60 million budget. Vehicle is everything, like I mentioned with Beyonce in Obsessed.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, this has to be considered a disappointment, but I'm not really sure how you market a movie like this one outside of awards season, either. It's not going to hurt Downey any, but I'm starting to think that Foxx might have his struggles cut out for him unless he chooses his next few projects pretty carefully.
The final frontier...
Kim Hollis: Disney's Earth, cleverly timed with an Earth Day release, earned $8.8 million over the weekend and $14.5 million in five days. Is this a win for the studio?
Josh Spiegel: A slight win, sure. Obviously, the numbers could have been better, but Disney won't be disappointed. If anything, it probably means we'll see more DisneyNature films over the next few years. I think the one drawback here is that some people may have rightly noticed that Earth is essentially a 90-minute version of the 11-part Planet Earth miniseries. And, since the movie can't be seen on something like IMAX, it may be less attractive to catch this version on a regular movie screen. Also...most kids aren't excited about nature documentaries; so...yeah, this is a win. The results could have been much worse.
Marty Doskins: Where this film is really going to win is once it gets released to DVD. I've heard teachers talking about using it in their classrooms once it comes out. There's already a teacher's guide available online that my wife printed out for herself. It has information appropriate for every grade so I think Disney is already looking ahead to tap this market.
Reagen Sulewski: Technically it's already out on DVD since it's re-edited footage from the Planet Earth doc. But that goes to the larger point - this is essentially free money for Disney, once they pay back the prints and advertising.
Jason Lee: While I agree that this is pretty much free money and yes, this movie has been out internationally for months now, I was still hoping that it would find a larger audience over opening weekend. Once the summer blockbusters start rolling in next week, this little gem of a movie will get slaughtered. Here's hoping that people search this one out in the coming weeks.
Brandon Scott: I think it's a real nice win. I mean, it's a narrated film that is going to do in the $30 million or more range? That's huge. This could easily have been a $2 million opener and instead it is sitting at $15 as we speak? That's big to me.