Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 22, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Proposal, Sandra Bullock's comeback film, became her biggest opening ever by almost doubling her previous best with a $33.6 million debut. Why did this film do so much better than her past releases?
Brandon Scott: This was the result of a perfect storm of Bullock back in a familiar role, the summer being ripe for a "female-centric" comedy to draw an audience that was the opposite of "The Hangover" (or at least to have women get men back for making them see Hangover), a growing name in affable co-star Reynolds, and strong marketing. This is paint-by-numbers by every indication, but audiences have always rooted for Sandy and something clicked here. It is the opposite of the slam, bang, smash that so many blockbusters of summer are, so it found a niche and rolled with it.
Josh Spiegel: I'd agree with everything in that perfect storm scenario, especially the strong marketing. I feel like I've been seeing ads for this film since December, which is an immense amount of ad space. Really, the only thing that surprises me is that $33.6 million is Bullock's best opening by a wide margin (also, the fact that the terrible "Premonition" was the previous record-holder was kind of shocking). She's one of those actresses, though, who's very solid in the romantic comedy genre and this looked like something right up her alley.
Reagen Sulewski: Something that struck me while researching for this film - it's been two+ years since she's been in theaters, five years since she's been in a comedy and seven since she's been in a romantic comedy. Usually that kind of out of sight, out of mind doesn't help an actor, as audiences are fickle and forget about you. Apparently, that's unless you're America's Sweetheart and the summer has largely been disappointing.
Tim Briody: I'm not sure which surprised me more, that this is Sandra Bullock's first #1 movie in ten years or that the last one was Forces of Nature. Oh and Reagen, I was going to reply with Two Weeks Notice? But then I checked and *that* was the 2002 release. I need to go lie down.
Reagen Sulewski: Right Tim, that's the one I meant. In some ways, it's kind of similar to the situation for Julia Roberts right before My Best Friend's Wedding. She was a movie star who hadn't appeared in a whole lot of movies recently.
Scott Lumley: I honestly think this is just another example of how freakin' weird this summer has been. The recent big releases have been more like black holes than tent poles. Harry Potter and Transformers 2 had better clean house or the studios are going to have to entirely rethink their business models.
(Pause)
Not that they shouldn't be doing that already....
Jason Lee: I have to admit, I was really surprised with this opening. In the trailer and commercials, I didn't see anything that looked remotely new or fresh - basically just a sitcom plot stretched out to movie length. I mean, it's one thing to score a nice romcom opening weekend, it's another thing entirely to double your biggest opening weekend to date with something that looks like a re-hash of better romcoms.
David Mumpower: While I am quite surprised by the level of opening weekend success this has achieved, I think that there is a key issue to consider here that has yet to be discussed. We live in a cougar culture right now. After decades of media cycles stating how resentful women are of older men dating twinkies, Stifler's Mom had a profound effect on society. Okay, that's probably not the real causality, but I always remember something Rita Rudner used to say. "Women used to date older men, because they were more mature. Me, I say men never mature. Date a young, hot one."
The people who made Sandra Bullock's 1990s romantic comedies successful, even the lousy ones like Forces of Nature, are now at this age. They don't want to live vicariously through Sandra Bullock dating an even older guy. They want to fantasize about seducing someone with abs like Ryan Reynolds. His casting here was a master stroke, making him the perfect romantic foil for a role people are tired of seeing Hugh Grant play.
Let's talk about Two Guys, a Girl and a Pizza Place.
Kim Hollis: After seeing the performances of The Proposal and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, is Ryan Reynolds finally a star?
Brandon Scott: He's close. We'll really know once he completely anchors something on his own to big numbers. Think the way Kevin James came out of nowhere with Paul Blart. He did it on his own, after being in a hit with his own show of course, but as far as movies go, he was the second name in the credits in Hitch and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry. I think if Deadpool does big numbers then we will say he has finally arrived. I am not ready to say it yet. His track record is too mixed.
Josh Spiegel: Yeah, it's too early to tell on Reynolds' star power. I doubt that many people saw Wolverine for Ryan Reynolds (and its domestic gross hardly qualifies it as a major success). The Proposal is certainly something that could lead to stardom, but I'm not sure that a Deadpool movie would do it. Not all comic book films succeed, and as proved by Wolverine, a movie star can't always make a major success out of a movie by just being in it. At the very least, Reynolds' summer has guaranteed him a few more years of solid work.
Reagen Sulewski: Reynolds is a guy who's kind of been dancing around the edge of stardom for several years. He's obviously got charisma to spare. He's just never quite been able to find that right role. I think this will basically be his coming out party for the masses, and move him from being a guy with a small, but dedicated fanbase into one with leading man potential. One problem I do foresee for him is that he's going to have very little credibility as a dramatic actor, so he should stick to comedies, or at least films that have a comedic bent to them, for now.
Scott Lumley: For quite some time now, Reynolds has been a tipping point in films for me. If I see him in something, I'm more inclined to watch it than not just because he's in it. He's frequently the most amusing thing in any movie he's in and was the only redeeming thing in Blade 3, so he's overdue for a breakout in my opinion. Also, he's really a massive closet nerd, (Don't even try and deny it Ryan, you knew who Deadpool, Blade and Wolverine were loooooooooooong before those movie contracts ever came into view.) which gives him bonus points in my eyes.
I blame Hollywood for not finding him the right vehicle sooner. Deadpool may suck when they make it, but it won't be because of Reynolds.
Jason Lee: I agree with Reagen that Reynolds has been on the brink for a while -- he's that guy who you always recognize, though he is rarely the main reason why you plunk down $13.50 at a movie theater. This weekend's opening plus his recent Entertainment Weekly magazine cover (wooza!) certainly makes a good case for moving him up the Hollywood feeding chain.
David Mumpower: I think Scott's point is well taken that Reynolds has a track record of being the best part of whatever he's in. That sort of thing tends to linger in the minds of consumers. Even if you didn't like Van Wilder, Waiting... or Just Friends, you still probably enjoyed his work in those films. It creates a level of trust that an actor has the ability to rise above the source material and be worth watching anyway, even when they're stuck in the dregs like The Amityville Horror remake or Blade: Trinity. Long time readers of the site know that I thought Definitely, Maybe was one of the best films of 2008, and a lot of that was because he was absurdly engaging as a lonely single father. He's ready to fill that void of romantic lead in comedies, his most natural career path, as well as action hero something he's done well in otherwise disappointing films like Blade: Trinity and Wolverine.
I am of the opinion that if done well, Deadpool will be the film that turns him into a superstar. It seems like the role he was born to play, because the character is acerbic and random, which happens to be Reynolds' wheelhouse. Of course, I'd feel a lot more confident about this if none of the people involved with Wolverine have anything to do with Deadpool. That was a rather epic swing and a miss at the character. If Marvel reasserts some control over the mannerisms and origins of Deadpool, however, I think it can open to Fantastic Four/The Incredible Hulk numbers. It's that type of property if done well.