Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 7, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Public Enemies, the Johnny Depp/Christian Bale gangster film from Michael Mann, earned $25.3 million over the holiday weekend and $40.1 million over five days. Should Universal be pleased with this result?
Scott Lumley: It depends on what they expected from this. This had a $100 million production budget so I have to assume that this sort of opening is not what they had in mind. This will probably see profit in the long run, but I really bet that Universal was hoping for a heck of a lot more than this.
Josh Spiegel: Considering the fact that Christian Bale (an actor who, despite the fervent attempts to tell us otherwise, is actually in Public Enemies) is still persona non grata in parts of this country, Johnny Depp's iffy box office status outside of being Captain Jack Sparrow, and Michael Mann's past history at the box office, Universal should be relatively pleased with this result. Collateral and Miami Vice both made about $25 million in their opening weekends, so the three-day result lands right in the middle of where Mann's most accessible movies deliver. The fact that this one's got $40 million under its belt is a good thing. Of course, it's important to note that Miami Vice, thanks to the bad word-of-mouth, did pretty poorly after that opening weekend. Still, I think that Public Enemies may hit $100 million by the time all is sad and done; there aren't many movies for people who aren't teenagers in the near future, so this movie may benefit from that specific, empty market.
Sean Collier: Josh is right - there's really no competition on the horizon, so Public Enemies will probably park at theaters for much of the next couple of months. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of small drops in the film's future, and a respectable total at the finish line.
That being said, there had to be a good number of executives crossing their fingers for a surprise this weekend. Realistic expectations were met, but I get the feeling that Universal's expectations may not have been purely realistic.
Daron Aldridge: If it can keep its declines relatively small, then Universal is likely pleased. Those type of declines are going to be vital to even come close to $100 million budget that Scott mentioned because I fear the overseas pull for a movie about an American gangster will not be as lucrative as other Depp titles. He is reliably good for double the domestic (like Secret Window and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory) or more (like Sweeney Todd's $152 million worldwide with only $53 million of that coming from North America) but I don't see it for this film based solely on the subject matter. While the reviews are positive but not universally glowing (currently at 60% fresh for top critics), those adult moviegoers might still give it a chance during the drought that Josh and Sean mentioned. At least, that's is probably what Universal is praying to happen.
Jason Lee: I think this one will perform strongly for Universal over the coming weeks - though is anyone surprised by the amount of Best Picture buzz this film is generating? Among others, none other Oscar-guru Harvey Weinstein has proclaimed this to be the first BP contender of the year. Given its somewhat lukewarm response from the major critics (as mentioned by Daron), I find this somewhat surprising.
Reagen Sulewski: With ten nominees? Sure, I could see it getting in there. At least, I wouldn't expect a dismissive musical montage from the Oscar host if it gets in.
Maybe he should have used the gruff voice...
Kim Hollis: Does Public Enemies' performance help Christian Bale recover from the perception that Terminator Salvation was a bomb, or can we credit the gangster movie's success all to Johnny Depp?
Tim Briody: I credit Public Enemies' opening entirely to Depp. I think the average person still doesn't know who Christian Bale is.
Scott Lumley: I've seen several commercials this week for Public Enemies, and without exception it almost appeared that this was a Depp solo vehicle. I'm starting to think that the shine is really off Mr. Bale's star.
Josh Spiegel: As I mentioned in the previous discussion about Public Enemies, none of the recent ads make mention of Christian Bale; even the full-length trailer shows off Billy Crudup more than Bale. Whatever success this film has can be attributed to Depp, that group of film fans who love Michael Mann, and those who like mobster movies. I'm not sure Bale's stardom is over, but if he's at all concerned about his status (though he's not the kind of actor who strikes me as that worried type), he may be the most fervent of those begging Christopher Nolan to do a new Batman movie.
Sean Collier: The Joker's last great prank: stealing Christian Bale's career. After Batman Begins, his star was rising; remember the hype (although it didn't translate into dollars) around The Prestige? The talk about The Dark Knight, however, was so Heath-focused that it really pulled the spotlight firmly away from Bale. Now, he couldn't make a solid hit out of freakin' Terminator. There could be a project yet where Christian was the draw, but I don't know what it would be.
Daron Aldridge: I feel like a mockingbird but this is squarely on Depp's shoulders. Heck, just look at the posters. They feature a giant Johnny Depp holding a tommy gun and he is the only one listed as above the title. So, it makes sense that the marketing team primarily focused on him in the trailers because they saw this as a solo vehicle. I do have to disagree with you, Tim, that the average person doesn't know who Bale is. That would be quite a feat considering he was just in a movie a year ago that sold more than an estimated 66 million tickets. That's a lot of eyeballs looking at the guy for two and half hours for them to not know him. While audiences might not be too interested in anything he has offered since, I still think they are aware of who he is, even if it is only as Bruce Wayne.
Jason Lee: No quarrel here. This is Depp's picture, absolutely.
Reagen Sulewski: Not only is he kind of a non-factor in the movie, Bale's character is named "Melvin Purvis". I don't think you even want your breakout to happen with a character name like that.
David Mumpower: While I do think this helps Bale's career a bit by reminding people he's a fine character actor, I will say this. He better not price himself out of The Dark Knight II. It's readily apparent people won't miss him.
It's almost time for the dog days...
Kim Hollis: We're effectively at the midway point of summer box office season. Which movie is the most impressive box office performer relative to expectations thus far - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, The Hangover, Up, Star Trek, or an option we missed?
Daron Aldridge: I figure if I chime in first with my guess then there is a greater chance that I get to hear, "I agree with Daron," which always has a nice ring to it. My vote goes to The Hangover based upon expectations. $200+ million. No one could have predicted that.
Scott Lumley: As impressed as I have been with the absolutely monstrous performances by Star Trek, The Hangover and Transformers, and as shocked as I am by the absolute silence that met Land of the Lost and Terminator Salvation, it's the foreign market response to Ice Age that has me just stunned.
For clarity, Up's total foreign revenue is $35 million dollars over five weeks. That's it. Ice age did four times that amount in five days. I can understand Angels and Demons pulling this off, but Ice Age?
Josh Spiegel: First of all, I agree with Daron. The Hangover was arguably the most surprising performer of the summer (so far, that is). Looking back on it, the hype started with the movie being a sleeper hit, but snowballed into something more. Kudos to the Warner Bros. marketing team for making a good comedy feel like it's the best thing since sliced bread.
For the most part, the other movies that have come out so far this summer have performed exactly as I'd have thought. Star Trek had a great marketing campaign and solid word-of-mouth; thus, it makes millions. Transformers is what it is, so it's making a lot of money, but it may not make double its opening five-day take, which isn't as impressive.
I'm equally impressed with Up as I am with The Hangover, though. Here's a movie about an old man who lifts his house up on balloons to go to South America, and it's now got more money to its name than The Incredibles, either Toy Story movie, or Monsters, Inc. I'm thrilled it's made this much money, but I'm a bit surprised. Also, it's worth noting that Up's foreign performance is impossible to compare to that of Ice Age 3. The former movie is being released in a very staggered pattern, so much so that some markets won't get the film until December.
Kim Hollis: That's correct, Josh. Disney/Pixar has always had a distinct release pattern for their overseas releases where they are never in all international markets at the same time they are released in the United States. It's just not realistic to compare Up and Ice Age at this point, given the difference in strategy.
Scott Lumley: For a studio that I love dearly, that staggered release doesn't make much sense to me. This is the age of piracy, every week Up is released in select countries but not in others, the more likely people are to get tired of waiting and download it off the net. Get it out there, let people appreciate it for what it is. Make money fast before people can steal it from you.
Josh Spiegel: Scott, I'm with you on the Disney love (though that's partially because I am completely ignoring Miley Cyrus, the Jonas Brothers, and all that silly stuff), but it's been a relatively shrewd business plan for the Mouse House to do staggered releases: Ratatouille was released in October of 2007 in the United Kingdom and made nearly $50 million, while WALL-E was released in Japan in December of 2008 and walked away with just about $45 million; since both films made over half their overall gross outside of this continent, it would stand to reason that Up could follow a similar pattern. I do agree that there are, and have been, many options for people to find these films instead of waiting. This just shows how Pixar makes scads of money on quality as opposed to quantity, I suppose.
Sean Collier: The Hangover smelled like a hit - not to the degree it proved to be, but I can't say I'm shocked. Transformers, however: a) sucked; b) everyone knew it sucked; c) is a sequel to a movie that sucked; d) was made for 11-year-olds, and e) sucked. This movie nearly disproves everything we know about word-of-mouth, and it came out of the gate like the freakin' Dark Knight. Stunning.
Jim Van Nest: While I didn't expect Up to be #2 to Finding Nemo, the consistent quality and love of Pixar's efforts did have me expecting good things. Transformers...to me, this one was review proof. For the people who wanted to see it, bad reviews only further cement the fact that it must be awesome. I'm not shocked about the Transformers take either. The Hangover? Are you frickin' kidding me? If you had told me the movie about a bunch of guys getting drunk in Vegas was going to cash in to over $200 million, I'd have told you that you were nuts. For the summer, The Hangover is easily the "How the hell did THAT happen" story.
Jason Lee: Despite the fact that we almost always seem to get one breakout comedy each summer, Hangover wins Surprise of Summer '09 for me (for all the reasons already mentioned). Few box-office prognosticators even predicted that it would win its opening weekend, much less become the highest grossing R-rated comedy of all time.
David Mumpower: To my mind, the order of impressiveness relative to expectations is The Hangover followed by Star Trek followed by Up (now the second biggest Pixar film ever) followed by Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. That's a current tally, though. If Transformers does wind up making $400 million, I move it up the list. That's a different threshold than $360 million or so would be, an amount that would be solidly better than its predecessor but not earth-shattering. So, that one is upwardly mobile on this list depending on what happens over the next month. Its drop this weekend is difficult to read due to the holiday impact. At this moment, The Hangover is the little film that could to an extraordinary degree. It's like There's Something about Mary after a decade of HGH injections.