Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
August 3, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Funny People, the new Judd Apatow film starring Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen, opened to $22.7 million. Should Universal be pleased with this result?
Josh Spiegel: No, I don't think so. On the one hand, Funny People wasn't nearly as high-budget as Universal's biggest flop this year, Land of the Lost, but I bet they were hoping this movie would open with at least $30 million, based on how Judd Apatow's previous directorial efforts panned out, and Adam Sandler being the lead. With Funny People, the end success will depend on how many people spread the good word (or if the good word is spread at all).
Tim Briody: There is some high comedy in the wire articles today from Nikki Rocco. The Reuters article quotes her as saying Funny People opened "exactly where we thought it would be" and the AP article has her comparing it to Tom Cruise's turn in Collateral. You cannot make this stuff up. It didn't do so badly where someone's getting fired (under $20 million was the threshold for that) but I expect a big, big leash, at least budget wise, on the next couple Judd Apatow projects.
Kim Hollis: Tim, I have to think this is correct, yet over the weekend they made a point of releasing the big announcement that they've signed him for three additional films. I completely agree that the film is a disappointment - the combined power of Sandler and Apatow should have meant something - but I guess there is a modicum of truth to the fact that they're minimally satisfied if they're touting the new deal with the director.
David Mumpower: I'm going to use some numbers here to make my point. In 2005, The 40 Year-Old Virgin opened to a total that inflation-adjusts to $23.5 million. At the time, few people knew who its director, Judd Apatow, or its star, Steve Carell, were. Apatow's next film, Knocked Up, opened to a total that inflation-adjusts to $32.2 million despite the fact that Seth Rogen was a complete unknown at the time. Effectively, the first film opened well because it looked funny and there was a $9 million bump for the next title due to built up trust in Apatow and an even funnier, more commercial film. Given how well received each of those titles were, Apatow's third project should be massive rather than having the lowest total ticket sales on opening weekend. And that's not even factoring in the Adam Sandler aspect. In fact, Rogen did just as well with Pineapple Express when he had James Franco as his counterpart as he did here with Sandler anchoring the film. Funny People is an opening weekend disappointment, no matter how Universal tries to spin it. The even worse news is that beyond opening weekend, I do not see this title having the juice to reach $80 million, much less $100 million. It has a production budget on a scale with the combined production costs of The 40 Year-Old Virgin, Knocked Up and Pineapple Express combined, yet has failed in its first three days and doesn't show any upside from here.
Daron Aldridge: I am going with the consensus here that this is disappointment. The figure I saw reported for the budget was $70 million, so based upon David's total gross forecast, this will also be a disappointment in the long term. While this performance is sad, it is downright depressing that Rogen's Knocked Up costar and verbal sparring partner lately (Katherine Heigl) scored a better opening with The Ugly Truth. That one seems poised to outperform Funny People, which is a very Ugly Truth.
Max Braden: I'm not going to say I was expecting this range of box office, but to have expected Funny People to open huge I think would have been misguided. It's not nearly the high concept that sold Apatow's previous films. The death angle of the story is kind of a downer, and from the trailer all the actors looked like they were lazily shooting the breeze. Really, if you're going to call your movie Funny People, you really need to hit the advertising out of the park, but I think most audiences were underwhelmed by the trailer. (To me it was the equivalent to the He's Just Not That Into You trailer). And Sandler's name alone isn't going to turn everything to gold. $23 million is bigger than both Reign Over Me and Spanglish.
Sean Collier: Disappointed is an understatement, frankly. We've not yet mentioned that it opened essentially unopposed and that, discounting those wacky romances, the last big comedy is STILL The Hangover, and I think "devastated" is the word we're looking for here. There were enough genuine laughs in the film that if it had been marketed as a comedy and not as a quirky drama, they could have had a better result; Universal should be kicking themselves over their whole approach here.
Perhaps it really is finally time for that Opera Man movie
Kim Hollis: Do you see Funny People's performance as an example that Adam Sandler's star power is slipping and that Seth Rogen's has been exaggerated? Or is it an indication that people want less somber subject matter from this duo?
Josh Spiegel: If anything, I think it's somewhere in that latter suggestion. The one thing I keep reading about online is that the marketing for this movie failed. There are, of course, some people (prime example being me) who will see any movie Judd Apatow directs after hitting two big comedic home runs in 40 Year Old Virgin and Knocked Up. However, some people may have been turned off by the plot (as movies about Hollywood aren't often the most successful), or may have read about the lengthiness of the movie; also, if there's anything to be said against Sandler, it's that most mainstream audiences don't care for him unless he's being a goofy caricature. The dark stuff hasn't done very well for him at the box office.
David Mumpower: Examining each aspect of this, here are my thoughts. First of all, Seth Rogen is simply not a box office draw. He's a supporting player rather than an anchor piece, but he's very good in that capacity. We saw with Zach and Miri and reconfirmed here that he doesn't make many people more inclined to see a film, which is exactly what an opener would do. For Sandler, this is further confirmation that his audience remains loyal, but they vastly prefer him in Zohan/Waterboy mode to the Spanglish side. The unfortunate aspect of this is that his more serious work in Reign Over Me, Punch-Drunk Love, Spanglish and Funny People is all quite good. He has unexpected acting chops. It's just not what people want to see him do, much like John Wayne as Genghis Khan. He's semi-pleasantly typecast. With regards to the final question, it is readily apparent people want less somber subject matter from the duo. It is equally apparent that the key to all of this is that the trailers make people laugh. Funny People was always going to be a tough sell. That awkward Hans Gruber stuff in the commercials made it seem like any jokes in the film would be forced and awkward. It's too bad, really. This is exactly the type of more mature adult fare we should want to see counter-programmed during the summer campaign.
Daron Aldridge: Josh, I have to agree for the most part about the marketing. The early commercials I saw hinted at the more somber nature of the film's "twist." Over the last month or so, virtually every commercial has been a variation of the retooled ad that featured Rogen, RZA and the Grand Theft Auto joke, the aforementioned Hans Gruber reference and the club scene. I was more interested in the first movie they were trying to sell me because it appeared to have more of the Apatow heart we expect. The reality of Rogen not being a bankable star has to be setting in for Sony and their Green Hornet. They'd better hope the appeal of a 60-year-old crime fighter is greater than that of Rogen.
Max Braden: I only see this film's performance as a comment on its tone. The next high concept movie Sandler does should have little problem being a blockbuster. I agree that Rogen may never be able to have the drawing power of Sandler, but I think he could still deliver movies as the lead with the right projects. I don't think audiences are going to hold Funny People against any of the actors.
Sean Collier: I disagree with Daron; selling a somber film was a mistake from the beginning. Sandler has never opened serious films well (in spite of their quality, which is usually high,) and Rogen wouldn't look right in a drama - at least not yet. Both Rogen and Sandler's highest performing films have been their pure comedies - this should've been sold as such. Furthermore, I think that Leslie Mann - while talented - didn't do the film any favors, as her presence really made Funny People look like Knocked Up 2.
Kevin Chen: So you're saying that the producers should have doctored the ads to make Funny People look like a wacky comedy except that Leslie Mann's presence made it look like a sequel to a successful wacky comedy?
David Mumpower: If anything, Kevin's point about what Sean just said goes a long way in demonstrating what a difficult marketing job this proved to be for the studio. They thought they had a Sandler/Apatow comedy and instead they got the ironically titled Funny People.
Kim Hollis: Maybe the title was the problem, actually. It does put a certain level of expectation on the film that seem impossible to live up to. For me, it feels like kind of a kindred spirit with Freaks and Geeks. That show was not a comedy, but had a lot of funny stuff. I think Apatow was trying to do something similar here, and audiences responded sort of similarly.