Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
August 4, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Do you expect Funny People to have the usual legs for an Apatow film?
Josh Spiegel: It's hard to say at this point. The movie does have the advantage of not going up against many other big-ticket comedies in the coming weeks, as movies like The Hangover have already come and gone. That may do well for its legs; it's also worth noting that the movie had a pretty respectable per-theater average compared with the others in the top ten. Again, though, if the movie's word-of-mouth isn't great, the legs may not be worth writing home about. I certainly hope the movie ends up with great legs, but it may not pan out that way.
David Mumpower: The short answer here is no. The two films from Apatow himself, not counting the ones from his disciples, have had final multipliers (overall domestic receipts divided by opening weekend total) of 4.84 and 5.11. Sandler's last five comedies were 4.01 for Bedtime Stories, 2.60 for You Don't Mess with the Zohan, 3.50 for I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, 3.43 for Click and 3.32 for The Longest Yard. His titles are much more frontloaded as a rule since he appeals to a younger crowd. The best case scenario here is that the college kids showed up opening weekend while the older Apatow fans will wait until afterward. The realistic scenario is that it just doesn't have any demand and goes away quicker than normal.
Tim Briody: I expect somewhere around a 60% drop next weekend.
Daron Aldridge: Apatow is probably just going to have to settle for going two for three. Tim, I am hopeful that your 60% plummet estimate for next weekend is exaggerated but I'm also not sold on Funny People's longevity.
Sean Collier: Word-of-mouth drove Knocked Up and The 40 Year-Old Virgin; not enough moviegoers saw Funny People, and the reaction has been lukewarm. I don't see how legs are going to grow here.
Kim Hollis: It's definitely not going to have the staying power of those earlier films, which both had buzz much in the vein of The Hangover. While a lot of people seem happy with Funny People, it's not really what a lot of folks were expecting from Apatow.
C'mon, people. It was Ashley freakin' Tisdale!
Kim Hollis: Aliens in the Attic, the silly children's comedy from Fox, opened to $8 million with a per location average of $2,578. Should Fox be pleased with this result?
Josh Spiegel: In that the movie would have done even worse had it gone straight to DVD, sure, Fox execs should be doing cartwheels around the office. On the other hand...no, this result is just not that good. Maybe the folks at Fox can take heart that the gross could have been lower.
David Mumpower: The comparison film I had been using for this release had been Small Soldiers, a largely forgotten DreamWorks release from 11 years ago. The titles share that similar premise of kids locked in mortal combat with silly creatures whom they can later buy at Toys R Us. That title earned $55.1 million back in July of 1998 and even if we don't adjust for inflation, it's clear that Aliens in the Attic is no Small Soldiers. In fact, it's going to get smoked by Robert Rodriguez's upcoming release, Shorts, which has similar themes. I have no idea why Rodriguez is so much better at these sorts of films than anyone else, but he is. Aliens in the Attic is a miss, and it also dispels the notion that Ashley Tisdale can keep doing these silly kiddie films for an indefinite period. She's 24 now and it's probably time for her to take on more adult roles.
Daron Aldridge: More like pained than pleased. For me, this actually is reimiscent of last year's Space Chimps. Not only was it a 20th Century Fox kids' movie but it also received the same minimal to nonexistent advertising and a completely bored reaction from my own kids. Amazingly, both films had nearly identical openings but Space Chimps had a ridiculously unexpected 4.2 multiplier. But as David mentioned, Rodriguez's Shorts will ensure that Aliens won't see that kind of performance.
Max Braden: I was on vacation and mostly away from TV, but I really didn't notice any advertising for this until the 11th hour. Not that I think a long campaign would have done it much good, but maybe Universal realized it too and didn't want to bother. And no, nobody should be pleased with a $2,500 average.
Sean Collier: They should be thrilled that they conned anyone into buying a ticket. This had disaster written all over it from the start, and if they make back the cost of prints, they should be weeping for joy.
Kim Hollis: I actually saw this trailer get positive reactions every time I saw it in the theater. I'm thinking if Fox had actually tried to market it a little bit, they might have seen some results.
We were disappointed this wasn't a movie featuring Comic Book Guy and Lucy Lawless
Kim Hollis: The Collector, a torture porn release from Freestyle, opened to $3.6 million. It had a per location average of $2,736. Should they be pleased with this result, given that the fad is somewhat passe?
Josh Spiegel: Considering that a seventh installment in the Saw series was just greenlit, I'm not sure the genre is passe (but I wish it was). There will always be a niche audience for torture porn, certainly. This result isn't too awful (considering it had a better average number than Aliens in the Attic), but the real money may be in DVD sales, if there's any to be had.
David Mumpower: This project is notable for a couple of reasons. The first is that its director won a season of Project Greenlight. The second is that it was originally discussed as a Saw prequel. In terms of box office, it wound up being a moderately scaled release that Josh is correct in pointing out did okay. $2,000 per location is the line of demarcation for a project to be deemed a failure. Given how difficult it is to differentiate gorno releases, I'd call this a respectable enough result, all things considered.
Sean Collier: While opening outside of the top ten is never good, it'll make some money and then sell some DVDs. No harm, no foul. Now can we please decide whether it's called "torture porn" or "gorno" going forward? I like gorno, but only because it reminds me of a Mortal Kombat character.
Kim Hollis: I see no reason why we can't use both phrases as they both get the point across perfectly well. I think this is an okay result for a movie that has a limited audience. It'll do fine once DVD results are tallied into the mix.