Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
September 14, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Tyler Perry continued his run of off-season box office domination with the $23.4 million debut of I Can Do Bad All By Myself. How has he remained so consistent? Do you see saturation becoming an issue any time soon?
Josh Spiegel: Somewhere down the road, things may peter out a bit, but for the time being, Tyler Perry and his brand of filmmaking are doing just fine. This result could be attributed to the relatively lackluster list of new releases, the addition of a recent Academy Award nominee as the female lead, or any other number of options. At the end of the day, Perry's movies make money because he focuses only on marketing his films to exactly the people who will see them, instead of the so-called mass audience. His formula continues to work.
Tim Briody: Is he out of plays turned films yet? When he's out of content to adapt to the big screen I could see some drop off but if he's got five more Madea adaptations in his back pocket, look out.
Reagen Sulewski: These films are up there with Crocs for me as far as mystifying cultural phenomena of the last five years go. I am admittedly very white and Canadian (so, like, double white), but I don't think I've ever met a single person that's ever seen one of them. In a macro-sense, it's a bit like any other extremely targeted genre, like a horror film or Christian-themed films (which I realize these sort of are indirectly) - make them cheap and take your captive audience and go home. Your audience doesn't really care about quality relative to other films, just that they get something that's aimed at them.
Jim Van Nest: Like Reagen, I've never seen a Tyler Perry flick...don't even know someone that has. To me, this is really uncharted territory. Have we ever seen anything like this? Sure, there are other niche genres/audiences, but none of them even come close to the financial success of Tyler Perry. Considering he shouldn't be doing what he is doing, I think we can throw out the rule book and I see no reason that his success should stop anytime soon.
Jason Lee: If the market isn't tired of Madea by now then I have a hard time imagining box-office fatigue in the years to come. There is clearly an audience for this type of film and so long as Tyler Perry serves it up in a way that pleases his audience, he's got a pretty steady paycheck.
Sean Collier: I think consistency is going to be a problem, as these films seem to hit and miss with little pattern. Clearly Perry's best move is continuing to release films on slightly off weekends, as he seems to clean up when the competition is light. It's already worked twice this year, and it should be his M.O. for 2010. If he keeps that up, they'll keep making money indefinitely.
Max Braden: I think I made this comment last year - I see Perry as a contemporary John Hughes. I wonder if black audiences went to Hughes' less overt comedies, but they were popular because they covered a typical range of emotions without being too silly or too austere. I think Perry's films do the same for his audience. What other current writer/director is in Perry's genre - comedy/drama isn't all slapstick or too weighty?
David Mumpower: While an argument can be made for his performances being up and down as a director (low point of $11.2 million for Daddy's Little Girls, high point of $41.0 million), these releases average a debut of $23.5 million or so. This title has opened to...$23.4 million. He's hit the mark yet again and in the interim of all of these play adaptations, he's managed to procure not one but two television deals for 100 guaranteed episodes. Whether you have seen his films or not (and I have seen all of them but only enjoyed Daddy's Little Girls), you have to have a great deal of respect for his work ethic and drive. Most people enjoy the good life when they reach a certain level of success. It seems to have only pushed him more. Don't you wish more creators were this prolific while consistently satisfying their target audience?
Kim Hollis: I think you also have to keep in mind that all of his movies are making money almost immediately. They're low, low budget flicks. It's not like he has to have a $40 million or even a $20 million opener in order for a film to be a success in the long run.
It looked an awful lot like LittleBigPlanet: The Movie
Kim Hollis: 9, the world's first stitchpunk release, opened to $10.7 million and a per location average of $6,466. Should Focus Features be pleased with this result?
Josh Spiegel: Considering the potential confusion in the name (9 is not the first movie of 2009 to have that number in its title, but having District 9 at most theatres could have thrown some people off), the unique nature of the animation, and not having any box-office stars as the leads, this result is pretty solid. The five-day cume is a bit more impressive, but that per-location average is pretty close to amazing. It'll be curious to see if this movie has any solid legs; though its rating means fewer kids may see it, having a 3-D cartoon come out next week may cause a bit of a drop-off.
Reagen Sulewski: The potential title confusion is one thing, but I would have to consider this a tremendous waste of an opportunity. They had one of the more visually arresting films of the year, filled with action sequences and an easily sold premise, and it basically became an afterthought, a throw away. Now, I know Focus isn't a big player in the distribution world, but you don't become one by burying your potential blockbusters.
Jason Lee: I really think that this is just an "okay" result. Kids are clearly okay with watching animated films that edge on being creepy and scary - just take a look at the enduring appeal of the Nightmare Before Christmas and the phenomenal success of Coraline earlier this year. But I think what really knee-capped this film at the box-office is the fact that this movie not just eerie, but a big action-packed, blow-'em-up picture that simply will not draw typical animated film audiences.
Sean Collier: They tried to market this one to adults, but didn't try hard enough. Presented as a fantasy throwback aimed squarely at grown-ups with an appreciation for cartoons, they might've found more of an audience; as a kids movie, it's too dark and underpushed. Still, an entirely acceptable weekend for Focus.
David Mumpower: I see this as a relatively strong performance for such an odd project. This always reminded me of The Corpse Bride but without Tim Burton as a selling point. I had this thing pegged for a single digits opening weekend, and it has slightly exceeded that. It's at $15.2 million after five days whereas Corpse Bride managed $21.1 million in its first five days in wide release (it had a three-venue limited release the prior week). I certainly don't expect 9 to run as long or as well as that film did, but a $35 million result for a $33 million production so wildly ambitious and novel is solid.
It was probably the Lamda Lamda Lamdas
Kim Hollis: Sorority Row, the latest generic horror remake, opened to $5.1 million. What went wrong here?
Josh Spiegel: You could look to any number of reasons. There's the argument that people are exhausted from the one-two punch of The Final Destination and Halloween II. There's the argument that those two films sapped any interest people had in Sorority Row by just being competition. Also, when your biggest stars are Rumer Willis and Carrie Fisher (why, Princess Leia?), people may lose interest. Other than that, it may just have been audience malaise.
Reagen Sulewski: I think the biggest star was technically Audrina Partridge, but since most people wouldn't cross the street to spit on a cast member of The Hills, that probably doesn't help matters. In any case, stars have never been all that important in cheapo horror, but I think the problem here is that they didn't have much of a hook, or at least forgot to sell it. Audiences won't come out for "people dying randomly" - you've got to give your villain character(s) some personality.
Tim Briody: While this was never going to be a world beater, having some co-eds get brutally murdered probably isn't the best movie to release on September 11th. Just sayin'.
Sean Collier: The point about the villain is right. In low-budget horror, the villain is the star; witness the relentless promoting of Jigsaw for the Saw movies, even on the sequels in which Jigsaw did not appear. They should've made the killer more attention-grabbing in the marketing. Horror burnout is also clearly in effect.
David Mumpower: Since I couldn't care less about Sorority Row, let's focus on the more interesting discussion here. Would I go to the effort of walking across the street to spit on Spencer Pratt? Hmm, that's a tough call. Can I thumb him in the eye, too, or am I limited to spitting?
Kim Hollis: Spitting would be plenty satisfactory for me.
If we want to see snow, we'll watch the Weather Channel
Kim Hollis: Whiteout, the Kate Beckinsale film set in Antarctica, opened to $4.9 million. Why didn't this comic book adaptation take off?
Josh Spiegel: The marketing failed. That's my best guess, based on the shock I had this week when Kate Beckinsale showed up to market this movie on Conan O'Brien; her appearance was the first time I was aware that a) Beckinsale had a movie coming out and b) that movie was coming out this week. The little I've heard about the film isn't great; the critics aren't going nuts for it. Either way, there was a complete lack of awareness about this one.
Reagen Sulewski: I think the comic-adaptation part is a bit of a red herring, as I doubt one in ten people that went to it knew it was originally a comic. the bigger problem is that this looked like a bad episode of CSI: Antarctica, and people getting killed where it's cold isn't enough of a novelty to make a movie.
Jim Van Nest: I had a completely opposite view of Whiteout than Josh. I saw ads constantly. They were just bad. CSI: Antarctica is about the perfect description. If I want to see some freaky stuff going down in the ice and snow, I'll re-watch Carpenter's The Thing. This just looked awful and I always appreciate when the movie going public treats a crappy looking film like a crappy looking film.
Sean Collier: I'm with Jim - every preview just made me think "Yeah, I should rent The Thing again." No hook, bad word-of-mouth, crowded marketplace. It didn't have a chance.
Max Braden: I agree with Jim's agreement. I saw ads over and over and I still couldn't figure out if they were selling a sci-fi mystery or simply a murder in tough terrain. I know we complain about revealing too much in trailers but I think audiences need a concrete idea to take away from the trailer. Hesitation to reveal enough to sell the movie leads to hesitation in buying tickets at the box office.
David Mumpower: People who don't follow movie releases for a living would have no idea about this sort of thing, but this one feels like it has been in limbo forever. The indecision about how to market it presumably comes from the fact that there wasn't anything good enough in it to sell. The 8% Rotten Tomatoes score reinforces that, although BOP's own Russ Bickerstaff has a lot of nice things to say about it in his Book vs. Movie piece.
Are you ready for some football?
Kim Hollis: Okay, it's that time of the year. What are your NFL predictions for this season?
Josh Spiegel: I have been completely unaware of any football news going on; I had the dawning realization earlier this week that football was finally encroaching on whatever solitude the baseball season had over the summer. As a Buffalo Bills fan (please, keep the derisive laughter to a minimum), my guess is that Terrell Owens will play really well for...let's say seven games, and then turn back into Terrell Owens. As a denizen of the Phoenix area, I would imagine that the Arizona Cardinals are going to use the goodwill from last season and quickly squander it, but then again, I'm an eternal pessimist.
Reagen Sulewski: Chargers over Saints, Detroit goes 0-9 before winning again, but still finish with a better record than the Raiders, Kyle Orton has a higher QB rating than Jay Cutler, and Tom Brady sets a passing record of some kind.
Tim Briody: The over/under on when my fantasy football team is completely in shambles is Week 3.
Jim Van Nest: The Broncos will win the first game on a last minute "tip drill" circus TD by, I don't know...I'll say Brandon Stokely. Seriously though, I'll predict a Chargers-Giants Super Bowl with Eli reminding Philip Rivers why he was selected #1 in the first place.
Sean Collier: *approaches gold-lined podium, flanked by six Lombardi trophies* As the sole BOP representative from the City of Champions, I'd like to...oh, sorry, forgot to put this here. *produces Stanley Cup from behind podium, places it amidst the Lombardi Trophies, which rise on previously unnoticed high-tension wire, shimmering above the room in what can only be described as a chandelier of domination* In any case. While the path towards a second consecutive Super Bowl for Pittsburgh is clear (thus establishing the second Pittsburgh NFL Dynasty and making everyone forget that there's a team in New England,) the question does remain - who exactly will the mighty Steelers vanquish in the Super Bowl? And as I (quite nearly correctly) predicted last year, the conditions are ripe for the cross-state title game. Arizona snuck in and ruined it last year, so fate's gotta come back like a Final Destination sequel - Pittsburgh vs. Philly, Super Bowl 44. Thank you for your time, and please don't mention the Pirates.
Max Braden: Four illegal possessions, six DUIs, one homicide, and 18 counts of domestic battery.
David Mumpower: There will be joy in Ben Farrow's heart when he reads this. I do in fact believe that the Saints are going to the Soooooooper Bowl, as he is prone to shout when he is inebriated and incoherent...moreso than normal. There, they will lose to the Colts. I'd like to say it's the Falcons in place of the Saints, but I worry that our defense is too young. As for the New York Giants, they are clearly the best team in the NFC at the start of the season, which makes them not much fun to pick. With regards to Pittsburgh, I'll like them a lot better if they ever decide to block somebody. By the end of the year, I expect Roethlisberger to feel like that panicky woman in Airplane.
Kim Hollis: I just want to know when we can get back to talking about Brett Favre.