Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
November 10, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Fourth Kind, the Universal release that wound up drafting off of Paranormal Activity's box office tidal wave, opened to $12.2 million. How should the distributor feel about this result?
George Rose: They should be thrilled. It felt like recycled product and it came out the weekend after Halloween. Sure, the distributor didn't know Paranormal Activity and its $11,000 budget would turn into a $100 million blockbuster, or they hopefully wouldn't have scheduled the two so close together. However, why in their right mind would they release this the week after Halloween? They must have thought Saw VI was going to be so bad that the audience would be begging for a decent horror movie, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Saw VI was, in fact, horrible and barely made money but because of the success of Paranormal Activity the distributors of Fourth Kind will have to take whats been given to them with a smile on their face. This is just too little, too late, and anything over $10 million is a victory.
Josh Spiegel: I'm sure Universal was hoping for more business a la Paranormal Activity, but with the exception of that movie, I think audiences are ready for a little break at the movie theaters when it comes to horror movies. Moreover, I think the advertising reminded some of White Noise (well, it reminded me of White Noise), not something more potentially frightening like Paranormal Activity. Still, all things considered, the result could've been a lot worse.
Reagen Sulewski: I definitely think a thank you card is in order to the producers of Paranormal Activity. I think there were a significant portion of that film's audience who were looking for something a little more slickly produced along the same lines, and this gave it to them.
Kim Hollis: I think this movie was doomed to $5 million or less until it rode Paranormal Activity's coattails, so Universal has to be pretty thrilled that it's over $10 million. It's going to make the bulk of its revenue on DVD anyway.
Michael Lynderey: Universal should feel pretty good. I could go with the old saw about how PG-13 horror has been doing much better, etc., but I think it's a commendable performance regardless. Truly something out of nothing - a fairly bland-looking movie that could've gone direct-to-video, but instead stuck around and beat up on the much more prestigious The Box. And if anything, the passing resemblance to Paranormal Activity could've hurt it, branding it a copycat (however absurdly). Getting one good weekend out of this was almost certainly the best case scenario, and the movie delivered in that context.
Jason Lee: Considering the glut of horror films over the past month (Paranormal, Saw VI, The Step Father, etc.), I think this almost certainly has to be a win for Universal. This could have easily felt like the less-pretty step-sister of Paranormal Activity in terms of a "fake-real" horror film.
Pete Kilmer: I think Universal should count themselves lucky that it made more than $7 million and that it will get endless plays on Syfy.
Sean Collier: For a film endorsed only by Larry King (or so it would seem,) they should be thrilled, especially after the horror season is officially over.
David Mumpower: I think that I speak for all of BOP's readers when I say that I'm really going to miss those ads on the site.
Push the button! The shiny red button!
Kim Hollis: North American audiences largely decided not to open The Box, as the Warner Bros. release debuted to $7.6 million. Why do you think this film failed to entice consumers?
Michael Lynderey: With all the horror movies flooding the marketplace, something had to give. But even with that in mind, I always thought The Box would open to almost twice that number. The trailer was very effective, and while Diaz isn't a huge draw, her opening weekends are usually in the double digits. It probably didn't help that the movie itself is relentlessly weird, that it's been delayed several times, and that it came out six days after Halloween - a seasonal mis-match. You wouldn't release a Christmas movie on January 5th, would you?
George Rose: Someone needs to tell all the producers of Hollywood that Cameron Diaz is not bankable. Her name alone hasn't sold a darn thing. Being in Shrek doesn't make her bankable either. It sure won't help her in a movie that's targeting the same audience as the director's previous work, Donnie Darko. It can be argued that James Marsden isn't as big a celebrity as Diaz either, but even he has had more blockbuster movies in the last few years than her. From the first time I saw a trailer, this just looked awkward. The plot revolves a button that pays $1 million and kills a person in the world, and then the trailer also reveals that the person expected to die is within the same family. Go figure! It's like they wanted to turn Deal or No Deal into a movie and this thriller is what came of it. Frankly, Warner Bros. should be jumping for joy with the $7.6 million. That's $6.6 million more than it should have made and someone at WB should have to die for releasing it. Now THAT'S a movie I'd pay to see.
Josh Spiegel: Again, audiences may be horror-ed out. They've also got plenty of choices at the movies, what with Paranormal Activity, The Fourth Kind, Saw VI, and The Stepfather. Granted, the movie may end up being Richard Kelly's most successful effort, but the premise seemed relatively mainstream, enough so to catch on with mass audiences. Sometimes, Cameron Diaz in 70s gear doesn't sell tickets.
Kim Hollis: It just looked too weird. You can sell a romantic comedy based on Cameron Diaz's presence, but not a suspenseful thriller/horror flick. It's going to need a stellar hook to draw in audiences, and "push the button and get some cash, but kill a random person" just isn't good enough.
Jason Lee: I thought it was an interesting premise for a film (albeit stolen from the television world) but I just couldn't envision how the film's producers could stretch it into a compelling 116 minute film.
Pete Kilmer: No one wants to see Cameron Diaz in a serious role where she's the lead, in a support capacity sure (Gangs of New York). But in a lead in a serious movie? No. They want her and Julia Roberts in comedic romantic fare....and Cameron better get cranking on those if she wants to have any clout. As for the movie itself, the concept is interesting to me at least, but North America certainly wasn't going for it.
David Mumpower: At my house, we have a hard enough time deciding where to go for dinner. Picking whether a stranger lives or dies is just too much pressure for me. You know who is well equipped to make such a decision according to Hollywood filmmakers? Cameron freakin' Diaz. Good call, Casting Director.
Eric Hughes: "Do you want to push the button?" "I don't know, do you want to push the button?" "I don't know, do you want to push the button?" That's all I got out of the trailer.
Sean Collier: Thanks, Eric. Now I have to go find that Ren & Stimpy button-that-destroys-the-Universe bit.
Reagen Sulewski: "Hey, let's go see a movie!" "Sure, what's it about?" "It's a grim ethical question padded out to feature film length!" "... Let's just rent Paul Blart again."
Tyler Perry strikes again
Kim Hollis: Precious, the Lionsgate release with huge awards season buzz, opened to $1.9 million in only 18 venues, which gives it a scintillating $104,025 location average. Does this make it the front-runner for Best Picture at this point?
Brett Beach: Talk again about the difference a decade makes. Mariah Carey in 2001 sucking popsicles on TRL and unleashing Glitter on the world vs. Mrs. Nick Cannon in 2009 playing a small egoless supporting role as a caring social worker. The buzz on Precious is deafening - for its grittiness, for its starmaking performance by Gabourey Sidibe, for being this year's Slumdog Millionaire, only with the money replaced by the smallest ray of hope for a better life for the titular protagonist. I think it's a lock for nominations in all the major categories at this point, but I'm not quite ready to crown it front-runner for top honors. On the grosses side, an opening such as this has me thinking a long slow build to $100 million plus is not out of the question at this point.
George Rose: I would certainly call this the current front runner. As far as actually winning an Oscar is concerned, calling it the front runner in early November means diddly squat. The race has hardly begun. A $100,000 average is unbelievable and deserves recognition, but Best Picture is not based on screen average. It seems like a lock at this point for one of the ten Best Picture nominations, but it's got a long way to go before I'd bet on it winning the gold. Though with all the free press this average has already generated, I was kindly reminded of the movie, which I've wanted to see since I saw a trailer a few months back. You know what other trailer blew me away? The Lovely Bones. The race isn't on and no front runner can be declared until that movie comes out. If we're deeming front runners already, my bet is on that based on the trailer alone. And let's be honest, the mark of Peter Jackson's name means a lot more to me than Tyler Perry or Oprah.
Josh Spiegel: To be fair, Precious was already considered a frontrunner, but this result is incredible. Who's to say if it'll be as huge once more theaters get the film, but there's almost nothing to analyze here, except how we can all express how amazing this opening-weekend take is. Congrats to all involved.
Michael Lynderey: It's impossible to know just yet on the Best Picture front. The December movies have to be unspooled first, but if the upcoming big-studio roster (led by Avatar, Lovely Bones, Invictus, and Nine) disappoints, Precious can easily break into front-runner status - just like last November's Slumdog Millionaire became the default front-runner when no strong challengers came its way in December. In general, 2009 is turning out to be a pretty weak year for Best Picture candidates - something that the very bad "ten nominations" idea is only going to highlight. As far as Best Actress is concerned, however, Precious' Gabourey Sidibe is looking very Oscary right now. Almost certainly, it's going to come down to Carey Mulligan vs. Sidibe for the win in that particular category.
Reagen Sulewski: Never doubt the power of Oprah, people. I think this result throws it up into the films that are going to be part of "The Real Top 5" Best Picture nominees. It would take a complete rejection from this point to knock it out, and that basically never happens once a film gets momentum.
Kim Hollis: I agree that it was already a frontrunner, but these numbers are going to put its candidacy up to the next level. The combined power of Oprah and Tyler Perry is beyond our comprehension.
Jason Lee: I think it's absolutely a frontrunner for Best Director, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that it's THE frontrunner for Best Picture. I'd be surprised if the voters decide to go with such a bleak picture for their top honor. It's definitely a contender, though.
Sean Collier: It certainly looks like blue skies ahead, but the buzz may reach critical mass before audiences everywhere get a chance to see the film (see Watchmen for a much different example of the same thing.) It's got everything going for it, but there's still a chance people will get sick of hearing about it.
Pete Kilmer: I think it's a terrific opening. But this movie is going to be a super tough sell due to it's very hard subject matter. This certainly will but the director on the map (he already was as a producer of Monster's Ball), and I think Mo'Nique is going to have a very interesting year with the award season.
Eric Hughes: I'm with Pete in saying that this one will prove to be a tough sell. Having read the book, there's likely a lot in the adaptation that will make theatergoers uncomfortable. As buzzworthy as Precious has become - and with both Oprah and Tyler Perry behind it - I'm dumbfounded that Precious managed to do such boffo business. I've wanted to see this ever since it made waves at Sundance, yet didn't see it this week (or likely in the ones upcoming) because it's just not a movie I'd expect my friends to want to go out and see.