Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
March 1, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Cop Out, the Warner Bros buddy cop movie directed by Kevin Smith, opened to $18.2 million. Does this qualify as a hit in your opinion?
Josh Spiegel: It depends who you're asking about. For Kevin Smith, this is a big hit, as it's his biggest opening weekend ever. For Tracy Morgan, it's not a bad start on having something close to a film career. For Warner Bros., it's a mild hit, in that the reviews were all pretty noxious (and, unfortunately, with good reason). For Bruce Willis, it just continues to solidify his fall from grace. The result's not bad, but there was a time when Bruce Willis was a huge star; that time has obviously passed.
Michael Lynderey: Cop Out has performed way, way, way, above my expectations, and without any particular reason that I can puzzle out. Willis doesn't guarantee a $15 million + opening, nor does Tracy Morgan, certainly. The trailers looked resoundingly average to me, and I'm the guy who thought that When in Rome and the Morgans had funny previews. Yet despite all this decidedly suspect background info, Kevin Smith's worst reviewed film as director is now going to be his highest grossing (Well, maybe the law of irony is exactly what explains this). The real question this movie poses to me is - what exactly does it take to make a decent flop these days?
Reagen Sulewski: This is the kind of result that falls into that middle-ground area of not being a hit nor a bomb. It's a respectable opening weekend number for a mid-level action film, but it'll be lucky to make $60 million total. Maybe marginally profitable, but it's ultimately going to be a footnote in everyone's careers, unless Smith somehow ends up doing more director-for-hire work. Which would be just about the most bizarre thing ever.
Calvin Trager: It's a disappointment, and we shouldn't be hesitant to call it that. Despite being profitable, Cop Out will throw under its theoretical max gross by a meaningful amount. Kevin Smith's losing streak in this regard is extended. He has a peculiar knack for taking an abstract concept and turning it into something less.
Jason Lee: Considering the film's apparent lack of anything resembling humor and the questionable box office appeal of Willis/Morgan/Smith, I consider the $18.2 million opening to be a huge success. Just based on the annoying commercials and the unfunny trailer, I would have said that this film deserved to be DOA . . . and yet, it managed to con $18.2 million out of the pockets of moviegoers. Nicely done.
Tom Macy: I'm totally surprised by this result. I thought the poster looked more like a sight gag on 30 Rock than an actual movie. This to me is a perfect demonstration of why studios care to much about to demographics. There are no comedies in release right now that don't have the prefix romantic attached to them. One could make the argument that almost any movie that claiming to supply laughs would have succeeded this weekend.
David Mumpower: We're all over the place in our replies, which I believe reflects the fact that we were all over the place in our expectations for the film. Personally, I thought this looked like an abomination, making it no different from Willis' last film, Surrogates. That title earned only $38.6 million domestically, although it did well enough internationally to avoid being termed a disaster despite the hefty $80 million production budget. Was it profitable when it left theaters? No. A Couple of Dic...err, Cop Out cost only $37 million to make, and has opened $3.3 million higher than Surrogates. As such, it's a more successful project than his last one as well as one that will be profitable, as Calvin Trager indicated. Is that good enough? Therein lies the debate. I say yes...ish. A lot of that is because I've always been an ardent supporter of Kevin Smith, but this trailer made me want to cancel my cable/Internet subscriptions just to be safe from the horror of it. When a film like that makes money, I'm always impressed.
Maybe it's time for that Sixth Sense sequel...
Kim Hollis: Last week we asked how you quantify Leonardo DiCaprio's status as a movie star. This week, let's be equally ambiguous with our query. What do you consider to be the status of Bruce Willis's career?
Josh Spiegel: As I mentioned in the Cop Out section, Bruce Willis's star is as low as it can get. He's making a movie that Kevin Smith is directing as a gun-for-hire? Yowch. Willis had something of a comeback with his two starring roles in M. Night Shyamalan's first big movies, but he squandered that good will into mediocre movies like Hostage, Surrogates, and Cop Out. I like Willis too much to want him to stop making movies, but there's no question that his career as an action star should be over. That, in essence, is me saying that, as much as I love the series, no Die Hard 5, Bruce.
Michael Lynderey: Bruce Willis is still a mid-level star, someone who can deliver the occasional $100 million earner (Die Hard 4), while mostly sticking to something a little more moderate (Hostage or Surrogates). He's also certainly established himself as an excellent character actor - Fast Food Nation and especially Alpha Dog come to mind - and that's something he'll always have to fall back on if his star vehicle output slows down. Almost no actor maintains themselves as a top-tier movie star for over two decades, but Willis has pretty much done that, while diversifying his work load in a way that, say, Mel Gibson or Harrison Ford have not done. Basically, I think he's in an excellent position and I'm sure we'll see a lot more of him in the next 20 years - whether billed first or fourth.
Reagen Sulewski: You never want to say never with a guy who's previously once been one of the biggest stars in the world, but he's going to have to a lot better job of picking his scripts. The rumour that he chose Smith personally to direct this doesn't lend me confidence that he's making the best choices right now, and/or it tells me that he's just decided to have the most amount of fun making movies from here on out (which there's nothing wrong with, just people might not let you for long).
Jason Lee: I agree with most of what's been said - Willis will continue to be a popular draw, assuming that he's in a project that plays to his strengths and his appeal. Cop Out, sadly, does neither.
Tom Macy: When you think about it, Bruce Willis' star power has never been that strong. John McClane in the genre-revolutionizing Die Hard franchise is no doubt iconic. But his other most memorable works have less to do with him than they do the auteurs behind the camera, Pulp Fiction, The Sixth Sense and - I hate to say it - Armageddon. He's always been a solid, recognizable movie star. But he never had a real winning streak when everything he touched turned to gold, like say, Sandra Bullock's 2009. I'd say the Cop Out result keeps him at the solid-but-not-super-star status he's been at for the majority of his career.
Calvin Trager: Willis' status is "Transitioning". He's 55-years-old. Nobody under 25 knows him with hair, and nobody under 30 remembers Moonlighting. He's at the age and point in his career where he's not going to topline many more movies, but if he plays his cards right he can be an American Michael Caine and steal scenes in every movie made for the next 20 years. He shares Caine's charisma and versatility already, but he will have to find the humility it takes to accept smaller parts. If he can do that, he possibly has a Best Supporting Actor statue in his future. If he can't, he can look forward to picking his spots a lot more carefully and making hit-or-miss fare like Harrison Ford has in the past 15 years.
David Mumpower: I agree with Mr. Lynderey about the status of his career and Mr. Trager regarding his career trajectory. He's at that point that I call the Sean Connery:Indiana Jones/The Rock phase wherein he is the grizzled veteran who provides wisdom to the action lead rather than being the action lead himself. Live Free Or Die Hard looks to be his last great role as the primary lead in a quality action film. Hopefully, he doesn't stoop into Eddie Murphy territory by continuing to take paycheck roles like Cop Out. I'd prefer to see him avoid that most dreaded of fates.
We wish the movie was called The Heebie Jeebies
Kim Hollis: The Crazies, the latest remake of a classic horror film, opened to $16.1 million. How should Overture Films feel about this result?
Josh Spiegel: All things considered, this result isn't that bad. Overture released The Crazies on fewer screens than Cop Out and managed a solid per-screen average. It's starring an actor who's not a huge star (though Timothy Olyphant really ought to be), and is a remake of a not-very-well-known zombie movie. What with the competition of Shutter Island as a genre piece, Overture should be happy with the solid result.
Michael Lynderey: They should be yelling "Yes!" from the rooftops and pumping their fists in the air. The Crazies was the third horror movie in as many a week, it belonged to a somewhat outspent genre (the zombie, or zombie-esque, film), it had no real stars - but it still pulled in $16 million? Excelsior! The legs probably won't be there, but the act of making something out of nothing should still be commended whenever possible. So, kudos.
Shalimar Sahota: It's a very good result, and the surprisingly good reviews have suddenly got me interested. Also, Gary Jules' Mad World in the trailer adds a touch of class, like it does with almost any advert/trailer that decides to use it (most notably the Gears of War one). This could end up being one of their highest earners, till they score big with their next remake, Let Me In.
Reagen Sulewski: Can I be both impressed and disappointed by this at the same time? I thought this looked like one of the better horror remakes in some time, with a really and truly chilling premise, what looked like superior cinematography and acting, and it comes in well short of a Saw or a Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake. Apparently they needed to toss in some people who are on the CW.
Jason Lee: Given the fact that hardly anyone who bought a ticket to see this film has even heard of the original film, I think Overture has to be pleased. 2010 is shaping up to be a good year for horror films so far...The Crazies top $15 million in their opening and Valentine's Day has become the first film of the year to break $100 million.
Tom Macy: Another week, another horror movie opens to over $15 million. Who's surprised any more? I will say that the trailer was among the better ones I've seen for the genre recently. But honestly, what will it take for a horror movie to fail?
David Mumpower: Judging from the quotes I've seen thrown around, Overture Films is ecstatic with this result. I always love the shock that people in the industry demonstrate when they pay for a horror movie and it turns out to be a good movie. Nobody is ever good at hiding their surprise at this most unlikely turn of events.
I really liked when NBC neglected to show the first USA versus Canada match
Kim Hollis: What were your favorite Winter Olympics moments?
Josh Spiegel: As much as I congratulate Canada on winning the gold medal in hockey, the US/Canada game last week was pretty cool, if only because it was so tense. I also enjoyed watching the big Lindsey Vonn win on the same night Shaun White got the gold in snowboarding. That said, I was just as bored by curling as I've ever been, and found the puff pieces a bit too puffy. And also, if I never see figure skating again, I will die a very happy man.
Reagen Sulewski: CRRRROOOOSSSSBBYYYYYYY!!!!!!!
Kim Hollis: I loved the curling, all of the X-Games-esque events, and the hockey. I really enjoyed the Olympics this year despite NBC's best efforts to ruin them.
Jason Lee: Best moment was Shen and Zhao winning the Olympic Figure Skating pairs event. Saddest moment was watching that Dutch Speed skater move into the wrong lane on the instruction of his coach. Most annoying moment was everything to do with that stupid rivalry between Lindsay Vonn and Julia Mancuso.
David Mumpower: Jason has done a great job of hitting the highlights for me. I cannot imagine the frustration that would occur after years of training to lose a gold medal due to a coach's brain cramp. For me, curling remains a wonderful type of chess that combines strategy with execution requisites. I love it. I also was one of those short-sighted people whining about the implementation of X-Games events at the Olympics a few years ago. Nowadays, those have become some of my favorite portions of the competition. Snowboard Cross is the skiing equivalent of short track speed racing due to the high volume of athletes colliding. The moguls are a knee surgeon's dream come true. Watching the shock the legs absorb as the people race is awe-inspiring. And the aerials are the equivalent of people shot out of a cannon as a competitive sport. I love all of it and I say in all sincerity that the Olympics are my favorite thing in sports. I'm already counting down the days until the summer of 2012.