Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
March 22, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Diary of a Wimpy Kid, a relatively unheralded tween film from Fox, opened to $22.1 million. Do you consider this a clear win for the studio?
Josh Spiegel: Absolutely, though any potential story of this movie doing better (even marginally so) than The Bounty Hunter is a bit iffy to begin with; although I can admit to being ignorant of the series of books on which the movie is based, Diary of a Wimpy Kid had a very strong following among kids. What's more, the movie has no big stars (sorry, Steve Zahn), no well-known director; all it has is the recognition of the source material. That getting this movie over $20 million is a big win indeed.
Michael Lynderey: This is really a distinct franchise-starter for Fox, and I have no doubt that Rodrick Rules (that would be the sequel) is going to be given the fast-track by Tuesday. Diary of a Wimpy Kid will probably finish north of $60 million, and if the sequel does, too, they've got a whole series of mid-size hits on the horizon (there are four books right now, with a fifth on the way). Looking at the film itself, I'm startled at just how well it did. Getting the fanbase out helped, as did the mostly positive reviews. A nice surprise.
Daron Aldridge: The studio was smart to capitalize on the Spring Break holiday for its release too. Friday was either the start of the final weekend of the break or the beginning for many many kids. Since this demographic isn't heading to Panama City or South Padre Island, giving the parents a simple activity was a very savvy move. It also didn't hurt that there really is a void for movies to this audience. Alice is the only one close and I have heard many parents voice trepidation to taking their eight- to 12-year-old to see it despite its PG-rating.
Tim Briody: I'd heard of this series, though I couldn't tell you what it was about (which is more than I can say for Percy Jackson), but this is two kid franchises that have started in a big way this year. While neither of them is quite yet the winner of the Next Harry Potter sweepstakes, this is definitely a big win.
Jim Van Nest: I'd say it's definitely a win though I don't find it surprising in the least. The Wimpy Kid books are huge in the grade schools right now. There was a waiting line at our book fair for the fourth book earlier this year. While people without children will look at this result and shake their heads, those of us in the right age group are not shocked at all and already plan on catching the entire series in the theater.
Reagen Sulewski: Whether or not they do get a franchise out of this, it's a clear win, as they more than made back the production budget in their first weekend. The biggest thing this shows is how important it is to forge a kids' film when the irons are hot on its popularity, as you have no guarantee that your audience will stick with it for years. It's less than three years from the publication of the first book to the movie, which is astounding turnaround time for anything in Hollywood.
Jason Lee: Clear, unquestionable win for the studio. No big name director, no big name stars. $20 million+ opening? No problem. There aren't too many other film adaptations of non-fantasy kids books that have hit these heights. The people over at Fox Walden would have been thrilled to have done this type of business with this type of title.
Max Braden: I was expecting a little more because I'd had the impression the books had created a big base. And looking at Percy Jackson's numbers, I don't think Wimpy Kid will get close to the $213+ million worldwide gross. However, Percy Jackson's grosses came at a much higher cost. Wimpy Kid seems to be more in the Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants category, and compared to that series, is already doing much better.
David Mumpower: To address Michael and Reagen's question about sequels, one was announced prior to the release of the first film. That's how confident the studio was that they had a franchise. This weekend's results have justified that decision. I had discussed the success of the books a few months ago in a different column on this site. I am not the least bit surprised that those sales translated into significant opening weekend box office. I also expect the legend to grow in coming weeks as people grow more and more familiar with this adorable brand.
We wonder if maybe people were thinking that Dog had gotten a big screen adaptation
Kim Hollis: The Bounty Hunter, the latest Jennifer Aniston romantic-com...oh, wait - it's being billed as an action/comedy/romance - opened to $20.7 million. Is this more, less or about what you expected?
Josh Spiegel: This is exactly what I expected. Anyone assuming that either Gerard Butler or Jennifer Aniston open movies to big audiences these days isn't looking at the stats. These people don't open the movies that do well; they're either in ensemble casts (He's Just Not That Into You) or well-marketed romantic comedies (The Ugly Truth). The been-there, done-that quality of the ads, the tepid reviews, and the general lackluster feeling helped make this one do modestly well. The movie did well enough, all things considered.
Michael Lynderey: It's basically right at where I thought it'd be, give or take a million. But I do have to say that Gerard Butler's star power seems to often go a bit underestimated. In the past two years, he's headlined one mid-level hit after the other - films that took in $53 million (P.S., I Love You), $48 million (Nim's Island), $88 million (The Ugly Truth), $73 million (Law Abiding Citizen), and now Bounty Hunter, which will finish somewhere in between. While those aren't exactly willsmithian numbers, I'd say all came in well above expectations, and besides, how many recent actors have starred in so many $50 million+ earners in such a short period of time? A few, but the list isn't that long. Butler's Gamer and RocknRolla were his only real misses, but can you really blame him? Jennifer Aniston is a bit less consistent, but she's very visible among the current crop of romantic comedy leads, all of whom are happily beating up on the classic storyline that actresses over 40 are box office no-nos (now that should have been Vanity Fair's New Hollywood cover - Aniston, Fey, Bullock, Lopez, Streep, and Madea, with the tagline "They're not going anywhere").
Daron Aldridge: This was in line with my expectations, if not a little more. I wouldn't have been shocked if this one failed to crack $20 million. Michael, I had forgotten that Butler was even in Nim's Island until you mentioned it, so I am not sure his drawing power could be a factor for that film. I suspect that he wasn't the reason $48 million worth of viewers bought tickets. I do agree that his two hits from last year are due in part to him. He seems to elevate the appeal of another mid-performing star. But Aniston is clearly not that type of star. Her only real hits have been ensembles like the He's Just Not... or as second fiddle to a proven comedy draw (i.e. Ben Stiller, Jim Carrey, Vince Vaughn, Owen Wilson and Marley the dog). The studios have been trying to make her a lead for so long that it just seems desperate now.
Jim Van Nest: I don't really know what expectations I had for this one, I'm just glad Hollywood is helping my out by putting Butler and Aniston in the same movie...so I only have to avoid one movie instead of two.
Reagen Sulewski: I think this is a little less than I would have expected but not by much. However, when you're talking about expectations here, I'm also taking into account the idea that Aniston and Butler are perceived to be slipping a bit. To fall under that has to be a worrying trend line. Then again, it's not All About Steve, so they've got that going for them. I think one of the telling things about this is that no one could even be bothered to care about the two stars' fake in real life romance.
Jason Lee: I agree with Josh and Michael, it's right in line with what I was expecting. Given the extremely annoying commercials, there was no way this film was going to come close to the openings of The Ugly Truth or The Break-Up. The fact that it made it over $20 million at all is a testament to the star power of Aniston and Butler.
Max Braden: I had a good vibe from the many trailers I saw for this, so I was expecting about $25 million, but the $21 million beats generic romantic comedy box office. Unfortunately, the dismal reviews will probably kill its overall grosses.
David Mumpower: I disagree with Max's assessment that the legs will be truncated by the film's quality. The reality is that comfortable projects such as this are bulletproof when it comes to reviews. The audience knows exactly what they are getting from them and even though this veers quite a bit from expectations, it's still filling the requisite void.