Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
April 6, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too? opened to $29.3 million, up considerably from the original film's $21.4 million. What do you think of this result? Also, where does Tyler Perry rank among the most consistent movie directors in terms of box office.
Michael Lynderey: It's a predictably excellent number, and the two Why Did I films really mirror the performances of Diary of a Mad Black Woman ($21 million opening) and its sequel Madea's Family Reunion ($30 million opening). Indeed, I would rank Tyler Perry as, uh, #1 in terms of consistent directors. Sure, his numbers vary a little - they're somewhat higher for Madea movies, a little less so for original fare like Family That Preys. But in general, no one else has directed so many films in such a short period of time, all of which fall into basically the same range of box office. Right now, Perry's audiences are an unadulterated example of a dedicated fanbase whose movie-going habits are as close to consistent as they get. And that'll probably stay the case for a few more years.
Josh Spiegel: Michael's hit the nail on the head. Even if his movies don't make $100 million or more, Tyler Perry is remarkably consistent. I'm sure that Lionsgate wishes that the Saw films were as consistent, but they can always bank on Perry bringing in a lot of cash for his films. This new result is just as impressive as anything else he's done. Perry's not going anywhere for a long time.
Tom Houseman: I've never seen a Tyler Perry movie and I'm totally okay with that, although I'll admit that I was intrigued by "I Can Do Bad All By Myself," in part because the title is so awesome. It's interesting that there aren't more imitators. Nobody else is trying to do what Perry does, so he has a complete monopoly on his audiences. He's like the Roger Federer of films targeting African-American adults. Where is his Rafael Nadal?
David Mumpower: Since I feel that Michaal has already eloquently stated why Perry is the most consistent director in the industry, I'd like to address where he ranks overall in terms of box office champion directors. We have frequently discussed how few of them make a distinct impact on the overall revenue of a title. Even the best of them such as Michael Bay, Stephen Spielberg and M. Night Shyamalan (who does belong in this category independent of what you think of his work) have missteps. The Island, The Terminal and Lady in the Water all fall in this category just as Perry was susceptible to this with Daddy's Little Girls (paradoxically his best film). What none of them can claim is the sheer volume of work that has been mentioned about him as a filmmaker. He is a tireless worker, which differentiates him from most people in his craft. He doesn't need anywhere near the amount of pre-production preparation that most do. Because of this, he's already earned half a billion dollars at the box office at a safe pace of $40-$60 million per title. It's a commendable way to work the system.
Matt Huntley: I've also never seen a Tyler Perry movie, so I can't say with utmost certainty if I'm happy with this result or angry that it will result in even more Tyler Perry movies (based on his typical critical reception, I'm leaning toward the latter). If I was a Lionsgate executive, I'd be ecstatic over Perry's ability to consistently bring in box-office and I might even take a gamble with him on a bigger budget project (that is, if it had enough universal appeal outside of the usual African American demographic).
Michael Lynderey: Matt, as someone who has seen all but one of his films, I thought this was the worst Tyler Perry movie since his first, Diary of a Mad Black Woman (that was a film he did not even direct). Perry seemed to be sharpening his skills somewhat as a filmmaker with the first Why Did I Get Married, but he's not really improved since, and Married Too plays like a kind of highlight reel of his faults as a filmmaker. And don't get me started on the last ten minutes, which qualified for worst ending of the year as soon as they transpired on screen.
Max Braden: I'm sure I've said this before, but putting aside box office for a moment and just looking at content and style, Tyler Perry is the John Hughes of his market. The films Hughes directed were consistent openers but not phenomenal box office performers, opening in the range of $4-8 million, which ranked around the middle of movies opening in their respective years. Surprisingly, though, Hughes peaked higher than Perry has to date. Hughes' best performer, Ferris Bueller's Day Off, was the #10 grosser of 1986 at $77 million. Perry's best performer, Madea Goes To Jail, was the #36 grosser of 2009, with $90 million. The moviegoing environments of the two directors are different, but looking at Perry's numbers, it makes me see Perry as a consistently frontloaded director.
Jim Van Nest: I'm not a numbers geek, but I can't imagine there's anyone out there right now who has a better ROI on his films than Tyler Perry.
Reagen Sulewski: See, now all I can think about is putting Tyler Perry in a Saw movie, in some elaborate setup with a fatsuit. Thanks, Josh.
But the lesson is sound - when you've found a market, keep hitting it again and again and again. Especially one that likes family dramas, which are much less likely to get tired of what you're giving them like action junkies, aren't reliant on big stars and require very little risk on your part. Even the one acknowledged "failure" cost just $10 million to make and brought in $30 million.
John Saw: "Hello, Tyler Perry. I want to play a game. You've spent your life pretending to be someone else. Someone much fatter. But how much weight will you actually gain to stay alive?
Locked with you in this room is an endless supply of calory-rich delicacies..."
But is it the Last Song? Is it really?
Kim Hollis: The Last Song opened to $16.0 million over the weekend and has earned $25.4 million since Wednesday. Be honest. This is a lot more than you expected, isn't it?
Josh Spiegel: Oh, not really. I mean, I wish that this film had flopped, and flopped hard. But it's a perfect confluence of factors. Who loves Nicholas Sparks novels? Teenage girls. Who loves Miley Cyrus? Teenage girls. Who loves Nicholas Sparks and Miley Cyrus? I'd answer, but it'd be drowned out by all of the teenage girls in the world spontaneously bursting into a high-pitched shriek of unadulterated glee. Just throw in a pale vampire, and the teenage world would have died of happiness.
Michael Lynderey: Well, since I predicted that The Last Song would have a $40 million five-day, this is actually a lot less than I expected. But it should be noted that I made my prediction in the haze of looking at Dear John's opening weekend numbers, and had assumed that a Sparks/Cyrus ticket was going to be even bigger than a Sparks/Seyfried combo, especially considering how well Hannah Montana did last year. Clearly, it's a bit more complicated than that - Dear John had the advantage of a pre-Valentine's Day frame, and while Miley Cyrus is a huge draw for a certain audience, she's the antithesis of that in other circles (Amanda Seyfried, on the other hand, is more neutral). As is, this is still an excellent stepping stone for Cyrus, and she's going to have a Lohan/Duff type career for at least a few years. That's especially true since she has absolutely no competition in the teen queen department - Emma Roberts seems to have dropped out of the race, Kristen Stewart is basically an indie star, and most other names are non-starters.
Tom Houseman: I'll admit that Miley's songs are pretty damn catchy, but that girl should not act. Does anybody know how many novels this Sparks fellow has published so that I can anticipate how many more commercials I'll have to see for weepy tearjerkers about teenagers? Last Song couldn't tap into as wide an audience as Dear John, but it's certainly an unqualified success.
Michael Lynderey: Nicholas Sparks is the proud author of no fewer than 16 books. Two of those are non-fiction, and six have already been made into films, so it's just eight to go.
Tom Houseman: I am weeping into my Cadbury cream eggs. I can only assume the next Sparks adaptation will star Justin Bieber.
Reagen Sulewski: What we're seeing here is what happens when a group of pessimists are proved wrong. I, like a lot of people, went high on this film after the rather inexplicable success of Dear John with the thought that Cyrus would be able to pull her ravenous fanbase along. And it's clear she did to some extent, but with no mention of either Hannah or Montana, that audience was probably also confused.
David Mumpower: There was a line from Malcolm X along the lines of "That's too much power for one man to have." I think about that when I think of Miley Cyrus. For better and for worse, I see her as the voice of girls ages 8-18. And I don't mean just right now. I expect her to hold this title for a long time, because she has been a seminal part of their upbringing. A symbiotic link has been forged. Nothing that happens with her career surprises me at this point and she'll need a Tiger Woods harem to lose her placement in their minds. This is the greatest achievement of the Disney Marketing Machine in the 2000s, even over Jack Sparrow and High School Musical (the gateway program for Hannah Montana).
Matt Huntley: I admit it, it did open higher than I expected, especially after I saw the trailer and Miley Cyrus barely spoke in it (there was a rumor the studio was so unhappy with her performance, they didn't want her to be featured in the trailer very much, other than her looks). But just like her Hannah Montana movies, I think this one will be just a memory by its third weekend and most people, including all the members of her fanbase, will be saying, "What was that one movie Miley Cyrus made? You know, the non-Hannah Montana one?"
Just out of curiosity, did anyone from the BOP crew see it? Was it as bad as its reviews indicate?
Michael Lynderey: I saw it (there, I admit it). I actually thought it wasn't bad, certainly better than Dear John and the two Hannah Montana movies (I include that concert film), all of which I seriously disliked. However, I may have been desensitized to this kind of thing over the years since I'll watch just about anything.
Jim Van Nest: Miley Cyrus will eventually be a player in films. But she's going to need to step away from her comfort zone and do something different if she wants to be taken seriously. Disney stars CAN make the transition, but is has to be done just right. See: Anne Hathaway for the perfect example.
However, to get back to Kim's original question, it's a helluva lot more than I expected. This isn't the typical Sparks "I'll go see Iron Man with you if you see Last Song with me" romance. And I think you have to credit Cyrus for the success of the opening weekend.
David Mumpower: Unlike Michael, I have yet to see it (thankfully). I did, however, note with wry amusement that my 12-year-old niece had a Twitter update on Wednesday night of "I saw The Last Song and it is WONDERFUL!!! 5 Stars!!!!!" So, it's hitting the right note with its core audience of Hannah Montana-ites.