Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
May 10, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Iron Man 2 became the fifth biggest opening of all-time, earning $128.1 million this weekend. Is this more, less or about what you expected?
Josh Spiegel: This is right about where I expected the movie to open. Obviously, anything less than the original Iron Man opening weekend of just over $100 million would've been shocking, and I was not one of the people who assumed IM2 would top The Dark Knight's opening weekend gross. All things considered, I can't see Paramount, Marvel, or Disney (which may not have distributed the film, but is probably thrilled) being anything less than cheered at this response. It's obvious from Sherlock Holmes that Robert Downey Jr. as an action star is something that's not getting old any time soon, and Iron Man 2 just compounded that idea. It's an impressive take from a pretty awesome summer movie.
Tom Houseman: Quoted from what I wrote about Iron Man 2 back in early April: "What would Dark Knight have earned without the boost of Ledger? $130 million? I think that's a fair number for Iron Man 2... I could see this movie getting as high as $140 million and as low as $120 million, so I think splitting the difference sounds about right." I am a God. That is all.
Michael Lynderey: It's less than I expected. But when a movie comes out of nowhere to open with $102 million, should we really assume anything less than a record-breaker is in store for the sequel? Especially after the nutcase box office year that was 2009... What's really shocking is that this opening isn't too far from what Alice in Wonderland pulled in, and the total gross for Iron Man 2 might not even reach what Alice is finishing with ($330 million). That's the scary power of 3D.
Shalimar Sahota: This is actually a little more than what I was expecting. I always knew The Dark Knight's openeing weekend would be safe, and although Iron Man 2 was going to get a bump, I was expecting it to fall somewhere around $120 - 125 million. The summer movie season has only just started; could 2010 be the year with the most $100 million+ openings?
Jason Lee: I was definitely expecting IR2 to push into the $140s given the stellar quality of the first film and the "ohmygod, let summer finally start" BO boost that always seems to happen in our first week out. While this HAS to be considered a success, it's sort of like watching Michael Phelps "only" bring home four gold medals. It's a fantastic outcome that millions of other films/athletes would love to have . . . but there's an inescapable sense of what could have been.
Kim Hollis: While I don't think this number is a disappointment (at all), I do believe there's a perception that it should have done better. We've seen movies take big, big jumps in opening weekend box office from the original to the sequel, so a lot of people theorized that a similar circumstance would occur here. I was expecting more, though I'm not surprised by the result in the least.
Jim Van Nest: I think this is right about where I would have expected it to fall. What I do appreciate is that in the new age of 3-D cinema, the temptation to convert 2-D pics to 3-D has been very strong and the studio decided NOT to convert Iron Man 2. They could have probably set a record with the increased box office from 3-D showings, but rather than put out a sub-standard product in 3-D just for numbers...they left it alone and decided to be content with a top 5 showing.
Matthew Huntley: Given that Iron Man 2 had the widest release of all time, not to mention a beloved original, zero competition and two lackluster box-office weekends in a row, I expected an opening in the $140-150 million range. The first Iron Man was an expected hit, but it still went beyond expectations, and it eventually soared on DVD and Blu-ray. Perhaps audiences grew tired of the incessant marketing for the sequel, or maybe they figured they'd wait until the crowds/hype died down. Other than that, I can't think of a reason why the movie didn't open bigger (not that $132.8 million is a bad figure - it's not - I was just expecting more).
Reagen Sulewski: I'm glad to see that the temptation to call this disappointing because it didn't break a record hasn't set in, or at least not to a large degree. Although it's slightly less than I predicted, it's still a huge gob of money for three days for a film, and a lot of the difference between it and The Dark Knight comes down to midnight screenings.
David Mumpower: I echo Reagen’s sentiments as well as Jim’s. This is only a disappointment to someone with unrealistic expectations. Any title that becomes one of the five best openings of all time is worthy of tremendous praise. Iron Man 2 built the brand almost 25% from its predecessor in only two years when ticket price inflation is about 5%. If anyone had said in April of 2008 that Iron Man 2 would open to $125+ million, they would have been laughed at. Jim is right that a shortcut could have been taken on the 3-D thing in order to make a cheap cash grab; to their credit, the Iron Man team took the high road as opposed to what the Clash of the Titans crew did. All in all, Iron Man 2 has had a solid opening weekend, earned quality movie reviews for the most part, and was graded an A from Cinemascore. Jon Favreau has done all that was asked of him.
And how about Scarlett Johansson's legs for that matter?
Kim Hollis: Where do you think Iron Man 2 goes from here in terms of box office legs?
Josh Spiegel: It's hard to say exactly, but based on the reaction of the crowd I watched the movie with, and the general audience response, I'll be surprised if the movie's legs are bad. I don't know that the movie will make just over three times its opening-weekend gross, a la the original Iron Man, but something close to $400 million may happen, thanks to the IMAX showings, general goodwill, and no strong competition (sorry, Robin Hood fans) for a few weeks.
Michael Lynderey: We're definitely not going to see a repeat of what happened with Iron Man 1's legs. Out of pretty much everyone I know who's seen it, I'm the only one who liked it, and that's usually not a good sign. Sure, that's just an anecdote, but I wouldn't say a 60%+ drop is out of the question next weekend. Aside from the inherent frontloading that a sequel of this sort is going to have, I just don't think Iron Man 2 has that "see it twice" factor that the first one had going for it. Somewhere in the $330 millions seems like a rational finish.
Jason Lee: Call me crazy, but I worry about the two most significant factors of sequelitis here: it's not as new and not as good. Given that, I'm antsy about the unlikely-but-possible scenario that this film just barely or just misses the $318 million of the first. The audience demo for opening weekend was older and more female than the first film's opening weekend, so I'm curious to see what'll happen without as large an influx of male moviegoers to prop up this gross.
Jim Van Nest: I would say that the first film was the anomaly here in that it had just the right combination of factors to have huge legs. I would look for 2 to go back to "the rule" and have a huge drop off opening weekend and to perform like a summer blockbuster sequel. Nothing wrong with that - it's just that Iron Man's success may have jacked up expectations for Iron Man 2 a little too high.
Reagen Sulewski: These all sound like the same things that could have been said about Transformers 2 last year, and look what happened there. One thing that works against it somewhat is that weekdays in May aren't as lucrative as they are in June and July, but that's a minor factor. I have a hard time seeing this falling short of $375 million, based on crowd reactions.
David Mumpower: Reagen, while I always point out that $293 million of Revenge of the Fallen’s box office did not come from its opening weekend, there is a bit of sleight of hand there. As a Wednesday opener with huge fanboy appeal, it had a five-day debut of $200 million. Almost exactly half of the movie’s final box office total of $402.1 million came in those five days. So, its legs blew. Similarly, while we were quick to praise New Moon for that staggering $142.8 million opening, the reason why it was not our biggest industry story of the year is that it too died on the vine. New Moon didn’t quite reach $300 million. I fear that Iron Man 2 is going to share a similar fate of a poor final box office multiplier due to its opening weekend ubiquity. As the widest release to date, the film has been made readily available to anyone who wanted to see it. I am of the opinion that we are looking at the second largest opener to fail to reach $300 million. Quality word-of-mouth helps, but it only goes so far.
Matthew Huntley: I think we'll see an expected 50-55% decline next weekend, followed by more moderate declines of 40-45% thereafter, which would allow Iron Man 2 to out-gross the original in terms of raw box-office, but probably fall behind in overall ticket sales. Its direct competition is rather low for the next month and a half (I agree Robin Hood doesn't pose much of a threat), and the Prince of Persia may be a disaster waiting to happen. With generally good vibes at the exit polls, it's hard to imagine Stark and friends not grossing $330 domestically and overtaking Alice in Wonderland as the biggest hit of the year so far.
Kim Hollis: I'm thinking Iron Man 2 gets over $300 million but only just. It's not going to beat the first film, but it will come darned close.