Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 21, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Toy Story 3 opened to $110.3 million, making it the most successful Pixar debut by end of business on Saturday. What do you take from this performance?
Reagen Sulewski: Toy Story has always been Pixar's marquee product, and the previous two were #1 and #3 respectively in their years, so it's no surprise that Toy Story 3 is remaining in that rarefied air. There's a lot to being first. If I had any surprise it would be in looking at the series as a whole, which has done so well with some really simple storytelling and clever gags - audiences could very easily have moved beyond the Toy Story style, and have not only stuck with it but embraced it.
Brett Beach: I will take on the role of resident grump in posing the following query: I am rapturous with the 99% Tomatometer and I don't want to downplay a three-figure opening weekend, one that beats both of Pixar's previous best weekends (even when adjusted for inflation) but how is it that with ten years of goodwill stored up, higher ticket prices and 3-D/IMAX screenings that this does not beat Shrek The Third (and might come in just under Shrek 2). I know that the $110 million is in line with expectations and that this will have tremendous legs and possibly wind up number one for the summer, but I am more than a little sad that Buzz and Woody could not take the title (in raw dollars) from old mean and green. How do Shrek 2 and 3 trump this? I know this may have been done to death back in the day, but I would be curious for some insight from the "old timers." Nonetheless I look forward to seeing this soon and bawling my eyes out.
Matthew Huntley: Like Brett, I am a bit surprised Toy Story 3 could only manage $110 million in its first three days, especially when its reviews and fan base suggest $125 million was much more likely. By the way, what does it say about the industry in general (and perhaps our bloated expectations) when people like us write, "...could only manage $110 million in its first three days...," as if that number is bad? It's definitely a great figure to start out with and I'm sure the word-of-mouth and repeat viewings will propel this movie to $350 million and beyond. I think the reason it came in under other animated juggernauts like Shrek the Third is because it's been more than ten years since the last Toy Story, so the hype and demand have deflated some (conversely, Shrek the Third came out only three years after Shrek 2). Because Pixar films tend to show amazing legs, this seemingly "milder" opening (if "milder" is even the correct word to use in this case) will probably be a moot point when all is said and done.
Josh Spiegel: I guess I'm still looking at this number as a figure I'll never see in my lifetime and accepting that it's pretty huge. It's Pixar's best opening, it may end up as the best June opening ever, and it's likely going to lead to Toy Story 3 being the highest grossing film of the year. I can't think of a definite explanation for why Shrek 3 got the higher number aside from front-loading, since that movie didn't have the greatest legs. I'll still be shocked if Toy Story 3 doesn't get close to $400 million, what with its amazing word-of-mouth, the 3D prices (Shrek 4 has already made more than 3 times its opening weekend gross), and the summer weekdays ahead.
Eric Hughes: Yeah, as we have been saying already, it seems uneven to suggest $110 million as a soft opening. If it holds, Toy Story 3 owns the tenth best weekend ever. Even so, it disappoints me that it came in behind Shrek the Third, which is the only other animated film in the top 10 and seems to be the least liked entry in that particular franchise.
I haven't seen the new Toy Story, but its score on Rotten Tomatoes suggests it's a great movie... thus my disappointment. Yet, Pixar movies tend to have awesome legs. So for Toy Story to outdo Pixar's previous weekend champ, The Incredibles, by $40 million means we could be in for something special.
Shalimar Sahota: Everyone knew it was going to make over $100 million on opening weekend. It was just a case of how high it would go from there. It would be nice to know how much of this opening total is made up of 3D screenings, though. Everyone seems to be in agreement that the film will have great legs, which I don't doubt. However, it's worth noting that the previous two films opened in November. It'll be interesting to see how well this will hold over the summer. Also a good chunk of its 3D screens will be taken away by The Last Airbender in two weeks and Despicable Me the week after that. I'm expecting Toy Story 3 to have How to Train Your Dragon legs, in that people will (and should) flock to a great movie, whether it's 3D or not.
Jason Lee: I agree with most everyone that's already spoken up. I'm amazed that Toy Story 3 couldn't take down Shrek 3's total. Don't get me wrong, $110 million is an amazing total, but we're talking about the marquee brand from the most beloved film company around. I don't want to downplay a $100 mil + opening but still . . . I definitely had my fingers crossed for more.
Jim Van Nest: I know we're all Pixar homers here, but I think some folks are getting too caught up in Toys 3 not beating Shrek 3. I don't think you can discount the different opening dates. Shrek 3 opened while school was still in, in May. Parents who wanted to take their kids would go that weekend, as they wouldn't do it during the week, since the kids still had school. Toys 3 opened in the middle of summer vacation and I know that I'll wait and take my kids on a weekday so I don't have to deal with the obnoxious opening weekend crowds.
I'll be real interested to see what Toy Story 3 does today and the rest of this week. I fully expect that by Thursday, the Toys will be closing in on Shrek the Third.
Daron Aldridge: I agree, Jim, and that is the same plan that I have planned for my family. I can’t prescribe to the Ricky Bobby “If you’re not first, you’re last,” mentality with Toy Story 3’s scenario. Yes, Toy Story 3 is also the third part in an animated series like Shrek the Third but Pixar films are a unique beast in having very good but not through the roof openings. It’s all in the legs for Pixar.
Tune out if you don’t like numbers because I am about to throw a lot of them out there: The average multiplier for the five Pixar films released in summer (Cars, Finding Nemo, Ratatouille, Up, WALL*E) is 4.23. It is unlikely that Toy Story 3 will be able to muster that type of number, which would give it an awesome $461 million gross, because of the wonky 3D screens and pricing. Replicating even the lowest summer multiplier of WALL*E’s 3.55 would still give Woody and Buzz’s latest adventure $387 million and make it Pixar’s highest grossing film. For the record and comparison, Shrek the Third only had a 2.64 multiplier. All that to say that Toy Story 3’s haul is still impressive and if it performs consistently with the studio’s track record then we are discussing the highest grossing film of the year being a "disappointment" on opening weekend.
Kim Hollis: I'll admit that at one point I was so hyped up about this movie that I even thought it had a chance to beat The Dark Knight's opening weekend record. The thing is, though, Pixar films do behave differently than other movies. They're remarkably consistent, and the fact that Toy Story 3 has now opened $40 million higher than the next closest Pixar film is absolutely incredible. It has a chance to be the biggest movie of the summer. I understand some of the disappointment about it not beating Shrek the Third, but I think a lot of that is because we all so badly want it to beat the green ogre. Disney and Pixar should be thrilled with how the film performed. And even if Shrek has the animation record, Pixar can be proud of the product that they produced. It closes out the series on a high, high note.
David Mumpower: I think that the one aspect of the Shrek comparisons that doesn’t get mentioned enough is that what makes Pixar films wonderful is that they’re emotional and touching. Many consumers are looking for a lighter experience when they drag all the kids to the theater. We’re talking about cotton candy versus an elegant entrée. When a potential movie goer knows that they will buy the Pixar DVD in a few months anyway (and this is the format where Pixar rules the world), there isn’t that same pressure to head to the theater. Mainstream consumers have made the (somewhat arbitrary) determination that Shrek is an experience best viewed in a theater while Pixar releases are a permanent part of the home media library. The fact that Toy Story 3 is important enough to convince 50% more consumers than the other recent Pixar films to see this in the theater is a triumph. And while it may not have beaten Shrek the Third, we would be remiss if we didn’t note that it absolutely drubbed Shrek Forever After.