Make an Argument
Why the Emmys are shaping up to be doozies
By Eric Hughes
July 7, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
What’s exciting about this year’s race is that we arguably don’t know at this point in time which drama and which comedy will take home the prizes. Unlike previous years, where you could smell a Mad Men or 30 Rock win from miles away, both shows have brutal competition this year.
I’d venture to guess, actually, that even though nominations for Mad Men and 30 Rock are a foregone conclusion, neither show is a lock at winning the respective prizes.
Here, now, are my thoughts on which programs have a shot at landing a nomination. Those in the “I’d bet my firstborn on it” category are definites, “Have a good shot” are probables and “Dark horses” are ones that may surprise.
Up first: the dramas!
I’d bet my firstborn on it
Breaking Bad: This show hands down had one of the best (if not the best) seasons of television in 2010. Breaking Bad was consistently TV’s most intense program week after week and put most everything else to shame. Industry buzz was rampant. Celebs like Aziz Ansari, Mindy Kaling and Patton Oswalt tweeted about the show like they were paid to do so. Breaking Bad will definitely be nominated. The question is: Will it take down goliath (Mad Men)?
Dexter: While on the topic of great TV seasons – well, I’m also going in alphabetical order here – Dexter had its best season to date in 2009. John Lithgow played one hell of a creepfest. And “The Getaway”, Dexter’s season finale, ended the series’ fourth year with one of television’s most shocking [spoiler alert!] ever. (Ever!) Having earned nods for Best Drama in 2008 and 2009, Dexter is a lock for at least a nomination.
Lost: In case you don’t own a television, ABC aired Lost’s series finale in May after six seasons worth of 121 episodes. Though the series’ average viewership waned with each passing year, the show’s significance in TV history and its influence on pop culture simply can’t be denied. I wouldn’t expect the show to win – my money’s on Breaking Bad or Mad Men – but a nomination would be a great way for the academy to say publicly, “Hey, thanks for a good ride, Darlton.”
Mad Men: Having been nominated for and won Best Drama every year it’s been eligible, a nomination for Mad Men is a no-brainer. However. Matthew Weiner, if you’re reading this, I wouldn’t be so confident that you’ve got this one in the bag. While season three had its fair share of awesome episodes – “My Old Kentucky Home,” “Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency” and “Shut the Door. Have a Seat” come to mind – the ‘60s-era period piece wasn’t nearly as consistent as some of TV’s other great drama series. In other words, Mad Men’s competition closed the gap, and it’ll take some serious campaigning for Mad Men to three-peat.
Hey! Those were just the shoo-ins! Ready for more?
Have a good shot
Damages: Damages has earned a nomination every year it’s been nominated, and its third season tallied a higher score on review aggregator MetaCritic than either season that aired before it. While a third nomination is likely in the cards, I can’t help but think its sagging ratings will harm its chances more than they did in 2008 and 2009.
Friday Night Lights: Ask yourself: Have you ever run into anybody that has said anything remotely close to, “Hey, avoid Friday Night Lights if you know what’s good for you”? Didn’t think so. I’m not sure what amazes me more: That the series, now in its fourth season, has never been nominated for Best Drama, or that I’ve still yet to watch a single episode of a show that many people I know in multiple social circles swear by.
The Good Wife: I’d argue The Good Wife is CBS’ most buzzed-about drama. And that’s no easy feat when you consider it airs on the same network as NCIS, NCIS: LA, CSI and The Mentalist – better known as television’s #1-4 highest rated scripted programs in total viewers.
House: House has been nominated for Best Drama four years straight, yet has failed to win the prize outright. With other series potentially bumping House out of contention by earning first-ever Best Drama nods, I’ll go ahead and blame voter fatigue for the reason the academy fails to nominate it. I do, however, think the hospital procedural has a better shot at a nod than my “dark horse” candidates.
Justified: Timothy Olyphant is one sexy beast. Period. Oh, and this one’s also got near universal acclaim.
Sons of Anarchy: Sons of Anarchy has to be one of the most underrated dramas on television. Save for an Emmy nod last year for its theme music, the high-octane series has yet to bag a nomination for anything else. (That goes for the Emmys, as well as any other major awards show). The acting in this thing is killer (Katey Sagal deserves five Emmys for her work in season two) and I’d argue its entertainment value rivals that of any other show on television.
True Blood: AKA the series that saved HBO. Last year, the academy failed to take True Blood seriously. I don’t blame it. Its first season was fun, but bumpy. Season two, however, was popcorn television at its best.
Dark horses
Big Love: Big Love’s nomination for Best Drama last year was about a shocking as The Reader’s nod for a Best Picture Oscar in 2009. I chose to include it here to cover my bases, yet I can’t imagine Big Love earning a second straight nod. Industry buzz seems to be way higher for so many other shows, including a handful on its network alone.
Treme: Treme may have struggled in the ratings, but it earned the respect of its parent network when HBO picked up the series for a second season soon after its debut episode. Treme is also the brainchild of the same dude who created The Wire, a series many think to be the best television show of all time. The academy never nominated The Wire for Best Drama. Will it buck the trend with Treme?
24: Suffering its worst average viewership since its freshman series, 24 didn’t exactly exit the airwaves in style. At one point, even NBC was interested in picking up the show for a ninth season before it backed out on a potential deal when the network finally came to its senses. 24 hasn’t been nominated for a Best Drama Emmy since winning the prize in 2006. I only include it here if the academy, on impulse, surprises us with some 24 love.
To be honest, I’m less invested on how Best Comedy pans out. Yet to play fair, here’s my analysis on how things may play.
I’d bet my firstborn on it
30 Rock: The NBC darling has not only been nominated every year it’s been eligible, but it’s won every year it’s been eligible, too. Season four was a bit weak in the knees, yet I’d be shocked if the show didn’t at least score a nod. The academy loves this program.
Glee: I can’t stand Gleeks, yet there’s no denying that Glee is the biggest thing on television since the first season of Lost. This one’s scoring a nomination, if not a win.
Modern Family: Modern Family would be my pick for the best new comedy of the 2009-10 television season. It’s consistently one of TV’s smartest comedies, and tied Family Guy in adults 18-49 (Live +7) in its freshman season. Folks, that ain’t easy. I’m anxious to see how series regular Sofia Vergara reacts to the news when Modern Family gets a Best Comedy nod. She’s presenting the nominations alongside Community’s Joel McHale on Thursday.
Have a good shot
Better Off Ted: Critics raved about this one’s second season, yet embarrassing returns in the ratings marked this one for dead fairly quickly. Will a Best Comedy nod give Better Off Ted some life after death (a la Arrested Development?)
The Big Bang Theory: People seem to really dig this show. I’ve never seen it because the laugh track scares me. Also this. However, because it’s the highest rated comedy on television in adults 18-49 (Live+7), it’d be silly for the academy to ignore the most popular kid in the room.
Community: Community’s team of writers has one thing a ton of writers’ rooms don’t: guts. How else to explain the Goodfellas-based “Contemporary American Poultry” episode or the utterly fantastic “Modern Warfare” ep that paid homage to action movies? With Community, viewers never really knew what to expect. What other TV show can you say that about?
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Curb Your Enthusiasm’s season-long arc about assembling a Seinfeld reunion show made the HBO program relevant again. Though Curb wasn’t nominated for Best Comedy last year, it did score nods in five of its first six seasons.
Family Guy: Family Guy scored a surprise win for animated comedy when it earned a Best Comedy nomination in 2009. For those keeping score at home, this marked an animated program’s first appearance in the Best Comedy category since The Flintstones’ nomination in 1961. For that reason, I’d say this one has a decent shot at a repeat, even though it actually winning the thing would never, ever happen.
How I Met Your Mother: Though not as popular as it once was, How I Met Your Mother still makes some noise around the watercooler.
The Office: Sure, The Office has earned at least a nomination for every year it’s been eligible. (It won the prize outright in 2006). Still, I can’t help but think we’re all getting pretty tired of this show. In its sixth season, ratings for The Office dropped to their lowest levels since the show’s debut season. And on a personal note, I went from a religious Office viewer for five solid seasons to one who caught the show if I felt like it. To me, a Best Comedy nomination for The Office would be one done out of habit, not because it’s deserved.
Parks and Recreation: In many ways, Parks and Recreation experienced a creative growth spurt not unlike the one The Office experienced in its second year. For it to steal The Office’s spot as a Best Comedy nominee would feel right to me.
Dark horses
Bored to Death: The little-seen comedy lived to see a second season when the episode that followed Curb Your Enthusiasm’s Seinfeld reunion episode scored a series high 1.1 million viewers. Bored to Death’s comedy is distinct in that it’s amongst the driest I’ve ever seen. And Zach Galifianakis, as per usual, is a real treat. In 2009, Flight of the Concords stunned the public by earning a Best Comedy nomination. Could Bored to Death do the same this year?
Cougar Town: Cougars are so hot right now.
Entourage: Does anybody still watch Entourage?
Nurse Jackie: Though its second season was fairly mediocre, Nurse Jackie’s cast of main and secondary characters is among the best that television has to offer. Will the academy come to its senses and realize that Edie Falco isn’t the only one who can act on the show?
Party Down: Boo to Starz for canceling one of the funniest shows on TV. A comedy nomination, which would be a mega surprise, would be sweet, sweet redemption for the little show that could.
Weeds: Its weakest season – its fourth – was also the first to receive a Best Comedy nomination. Will the academy do the same for season five, which was arguably worse than season four?