Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
August 16, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Expendables, starring every actor you've ever seen plus several you haven't, opened to $34.8 million. What do you take from this result?
Brett Beach: Although there are enough action stars to go around in this cast that determining which part of the weekend gross was a result of which actor's name would be a fun game to play in perpetuity (maybe they should have movie patrons fill out a questionnaire at the theater?), this is Stallone's baby all the way, since he is director. co-writer and star. Much like Gran Torino gave an aging Eastwood his best ever opening weekend just two years ago, Stallone has his best opening weekend ever and his strongest as a lead since his 1985 Rambo II-Rocky IV doublepunch heyday, a quarter of a century ago! With his return to those characters well received this past decade and this 1980s-esque project pulling serious coin this weekend, Stallone is giving fans/moviegoers what they want (it would seem) and being rewarded accordingly.
Josh Spiegel: I take from this result what I've mentioned elsewhere on this site: my complete befuddlement at people still treating Sylvester Stallone like a star. Don't get me wrong: the success of this film, Rocky Balboa, and the last Rambo movie prove that he's a shrewd enough actor/director to know what mass audiences want. I, however, see the ads for this movie and worry that the 63-year-old dude with the faux-Tony Stark facial hair is going to break his hand firing a gun. Obviously, this is a success, but the idea seems like it would've been cool 20 years ago, and just kind of sad now.
Matthew Huntley: What I take from it is a manipulative marketing campaign that paid off very well. The mere appearance of Stallone, Schwarzenegger and Willis (a.k.a. the Planet Hollywood trio) in the same movie, even if it was only for a few minutes, made action fans of the '80s and '90s giddy and they couldn't wait to see it on opening weekend. Obviously, the inclusion of other action stars like Statham, Li and Rourke didn't hurt. But I feel the majority of damage has been done these past three days and The Expendables will have a tough road ahead as it tries to break though $100 million. I'm not convinced it will get there, but with a moderate budget and likely strong international numbers, it can be considered a success. I also wouldn't rule out a sequel.
Reagen Sulewski: This is a film that works a lot more in concept than reality - getting a butt load of action stars together for one film seems like something that should offer some amped up action (more stars means more action!) but you still only have about 100 minutes of film regardless (anyone other than Stallone and Statham gets basically one big scene). Luckily for Stallone, he's worked up enough good will from Rocky Balboa and Rambo that he can get people to take a chance on a bigger project like this, but does anyone not see the same problems that led to his downfall in the '90s rearing up again?
Shalimar Sahota: I expected this to open around $21 - $26 million, basically to fall in line with previous retro action movies The A-Team and Predators. Whereas those films were offering the 1980s ideas, they were still lacking the actors of that time. As obvious as it sounds, I guess that what drew people out to see this is the star power, and probably to see if Stallone has still got it. To get to $35 is quite an achievement but I fear a huge drop next week. It'll be interesting to see what Stallone follows this up with.
Jim Van Nest: I think the Gran Torino comparison is about the best one out there. Gran Torino was probably our last chance to see Bad-Ass Clint. Expendables may be the last time to see Bad-Ass Stallone. It may also be the last time to see a lot of these guys in a full-on action movie. This movie was sold as "look at all these super action stars we have in one movie...who cares if it's any good?" and it seems to have worked perfectly. This is what Snakes on a Plane wished it could have been.
Max Braden: "Imagine what would happen if they got every action star to be in the same movie together." "Well, then, I imagine I'd have to see that." My take is that by mid-August, the big summer cotton-candy tent-pole movies have been played out and you're left with people wanting some down and dirty action before they have to go back to college or school or work after Labor Day (which is why I think Piranha 3D will do decently). What I think is notable about the trailer is there was no big action set-piece like the parachuting tank in The A-Team or any other Michael Bay-type action movie. The Expendables' draw was basically the action stars lining up at a shooting gallery and having a pissing contest. As B-grade as these actors are, the sum of their parts added up pretty well.
David Mumpower: I think too much credit is being given to Stallone. He's but a small part of this. It's the combination of 82 people that people know appearing in the same action movie that sells it. I felt from the moment it was announced that The Expendables would open huge then fall off the table and nothing that has happened thus far has changed my opinion. What I do find interesting is that casual movie goers seem to be enjoying this more than I had expected while anyone who likes that tricky storytelling thing called "character development" leaves the theater shaking their head. Is it possible that the divisive but more positive than expected word-of-mouth leads to a better domestic result? Okay, probably not, but I am impressed that the "just give me 1980s cheese" crowd is largely satisfied.
Hey! Where is The Rock? (We kid. We kid!)
Kim Hollis: Eat Pray Love, the latest Julia Roberts star vehicle, opened to $23.1 million. Is this more, less, or about what you expected? Should Sony be pleased with the result?
Josh Spiegel: On the one hand, I expected a bit more. It would not have shocked me if Eat Pray Love had surprised people and topped the box office this past weekend. Julia Roberts is still one of the most famous people in the world, the book is a wildly popular hit, it's been featured on Oprah Winfrey's show, it looks like a beautiful travelogue, and it's directed by the co-creator of Glee. On the other hand, I have seen no marketing for this movie aside from what I would politely call a weak poster featuring Roberts on a park bench, eyes looking upward. I appreciate that I don't watch the kind of stuff that the movie would be featured on, but there's been nothing for the movie anywhere I look. That the movie made this much without advance praise, weak reviews once the film was shown for critics, and no marketing is pretty good, all things considered.
Matthew Huntley: I agree with Josh in that I'm surprised the numbers aren't bigger. I would have predicted an opening in the high 20s or lower 30s for the followings reasons: 1) It's Julia Roberts' first solo project in practically 10 years and it's the kind of role that made her famous and bankable; I figured fans would jump at the chance to see her reclaim her title as box office queen; 2) The demographic for this movie - adult women - has been grossly under-served this summer and I would have thought they'd rush out to see something that was specifically geared toward them (since Sex and the City 2 was such a letdown); 3) The popular source material, which I've seen many women reading the past few months.
Still, movies like this, despite the poor reviews, tend to show strong legs and there's no reason to think Eat Pray Love will be any different. I would say an $80 million finish is in the cards, unless The Switch happens to steal away a bunch of women next weekend. Sony should be pleased with this result, but not ecstatic, as the movie did cost $60 million + to make.
Reagen Sulewski: That Oprah connection is a blessing and a curse - every woman in North America knew about this book and this film, but no man was going to step within 20 feet of a theater showing it. Still, this was something of a can't miss project - Julia returning to the kind of film that audiences love her in, and a subject matter that lends itself well to the big screen. It's tough to get a baseline on Julia now - she doesn't do this kind of film much if at all anymore - but it's pretty much smack where you'd expect a romantic comedy/travelogue with an A-list star to land.
Jim Van Nest: A lot has happened in the 10 years since Julia was in her comfort zone. Most important: people realized that the genre can exist without her. Plug in Bullock, Witherspoon, McAdams, Aniston, Diaz or even Drew Barrymore and the production does not lose much by not having Julia Roberts. I'd argue that some of her films of the past were way OVER-attended based on her name and this result is the kind of result she should have been having all along. Also...I'm with Reagen...I can be talked into the rom-com, but when Oprah's name is on it, it's a sign of way to much cheese for me.
Max Braden: At first I was going to comment against Jim's list of younger actresses because I thought of the movie as a Diane Lane/Tuscan Sun-type movie ($9.75 million in Sep. 2003). Or maybe even Meryl Streep/It's Complicated ($22.1 million Christmas weekend last year). But after a thought I could imagine Amy Adams in the role. But I don't see any alternate actress bringing in as much box office for this movie as Julia Roberts did, and that's without male audiences who that would have been more like to have seen her earlier romantic comedies on dates.
David Mumpower: In addition to some of the other comments made about the lackluster quality of the film, I would add that it reminds me of another Julia Roberts girl-power celebration that disappointed, Mona Lisa Smile. That film had a smaller opening due to its being a December release, but it wound up earning $63.8 million, which seems to be the range for Roberts' non-blockbusters. The Mexican wound up with $66.8 million, (my beloved) Charlie Wilson's War finished at $66.7 million and that's the range we're looking at for Eat Pray Love. This is the box office she gets when her fans are less emphatic about her projects. To her credit, these are numbers that most lead actresses covet but will never earn.