Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
September 13, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Resident Evil: Afterlife, the fourth installment in the Screen Gems franchise, and the first non-Avatar film to use James Cameron's 3D technology, opened to $26.7 million. What do you think of this result?
Josh Spiegel: On the one hand, the fourth movie in a series that manages to be popular without being one of the biggest franchises in the world making more than $25 million in its first three days is great. Also, though Afterlife's budget is $60 million, it's already made that back if you include the international estimates. However, unlike a majority of the 3D movies overpopulating the marketplace, this movie was shot in 3D and had 2,000 theaters showing it in the format. With the high prices, it could only muster up $3 million more than the first two films' opening weekends? That seems a bit disappointing, though Sony had four films in this week's top ten, so they can't be too sad. It just seems like the movie could/should have made more.
Bruce Hall: I see the point about the added profit the 3D format presumably might have provided, but $27 million is $27 million. The semantics are debatable, but we're looking at an improved opening frame haul over the last three installments in a franchise that really should have run out of gas a long time ago. On the other hand, without any tracking data it is hard to tell how much the higher ticket prices made up for what I highly suspect may be a smaller actual audience. That would be especially interesting to me because personally, I was tired of the series after the first film and I question how many fans of Resident Evil would insist that these are "good" movies as opposed to just "good fun." I suppose considering the target audience here, that may not matter. In any event I fall into the latter demographic because while I find the Resident Evil series to be transparent variations on a theme, I never, EVER get tired of watching Milla Jovovich, with her big guns and little outfits, making piles and piles of zombies into mincemeat.
Ask me to choose between more story or more Milla and it's Milla Time for me, every time. Guilty as charged.
And considering the fact that this movie self consciously ends on a cliffhanger and has all but already recovered its budget we may as well go ahead and start dreaming up titles for the sequel. Resident Evil: Reanimation? Resurrection? No! Resuscitation!
Brett Beach : Although I have little to no interest in the series, it should be counted as a win because a) It did make more in its opening weekend than any of the previous three installments (and we have seen several instances this past summer where 3-D did not help achieve this end); and b) Much like the Final Destination or Ice Age series, these have done progressively (and impressively) better overseas and managed to maintain relevance domestically even after nearly a decade. This is one of the best examples of a series that continues to deliver what its fans want (as testified by Mr. Mumpower's impassioned soliloquy in the weekend forecast) and does it within budgets that remain relatively modest within the Hollywood industry. This one will top Extinction in global gross, making a part five a no-brainer.
Matthew Huntley: The Resident Evil franchise is one that's neither really loved nor really hated, but save for the original, they're always released at a time when the overall marketplace is slow, so they typically remain the only new choice for moviegoers on opening weekend. Afterlife is no different and therefore I think $27 million falls in line with expectations nearly perfectly. It doesn't surprise me at all. Given inflation and the 3D surcharges, it sold about as many tickets as Extinction did back in 2007, so there's clearly still an audience for it, but again, is it because viewers are loyal to the material or simply because there's a lack of new choices? I'd be curious to know what the numbers would be if it was released at a more competitive time of year. Because the reviews for Resident Evil tend to be less than glowing, Sony is wise to release it when a better film couldn't possibly come along and steal Evil's audience.
Pete Kilmer: This is the franchise that continues to grow. Is it a series of great movies? No. Are they fun for those of who like post-apocalyptic movies? Heck yeah. I'm really enjoying Milla in this role and look forward to more. Having the movie in 3D probably helped it, and what's really nice is that it used Cameron's system, which I think helped Paul W.S. Anderson up his game quite a bit. While he'll never be a great director, he does come up with some nice sequences. I think the opening of $26.7 million is pretty strong for this franchise. I tend to think that this movie is gonna have about two weeks of legs in the US. The opening of the movie has me really curious about the development of World War Z and other zombie related movies.
Shalimar Sahota: The opening is bang on target, really. Being a fan of the games, I would consider myself the target audience for the films, and I imagine what we're looking at is simply the same audience coming back for more. Personally, with each installment I don't see them getting any better, nor do I find them any worse. While the 3D effect is good, I don't see it having any impact on the eventual box office, so it'll behave just like the sequels did - which means we'll probably get a fifth film soon.
I think it's interesting that Brett mentions Final Destination, since the last instalment became the highest earner of the franchise, possibly due to it being in 3D. Saw is another horror franchise on the horizon that has already seen dwindling audiences, yet is hoping to get a box office boost from actually being shot in 3D (no post production conversion here). I think it'll be interesting to see how Saw 3D performs against Resident Evil Afterlife, but also against its own sequels.
Reagen Sulewski: "Only" $3 million more than the previous Resident Evil films might just be a triumph given the climate of the past few months. We've seen two medium-profile sequels completely bomb out this summer when going to a 3D format, so there was no guarantee this wouldn't fall to the same fate.
Then again, this appears to be one of the most loyal fanbases out there. There may not be a gigantic pile of people interested in this franchise but those that are, really are. Any other franchise would be in "direct to DVD" mode by now.
David Mumpower: The other point I would make with regards to the 3D ticket price inflation is that BOP's Chris Hyde always loved to point out that the overall trend of ticket sales has been down since the 1940s. Each decade finds new avenues of distraction for consumers that shrink the consumer base further and further. The industry plays sleight of hand with this by constantly finding new ways to sell tickets at a higher cost. Consider that the cost of living has increased roughly 26.6% from 2000 to today. Meanwhile, movie tickets went from an average of $5.39 in 2000 to $7.50 in 2009, a 39.1% bump, and most analysts (including myself) believe that the actual number is being downgraded to hide just how big the 3D boost has been. We paid $33 for a pair of tickets to see Resident Evil: Afterlife, as an example. Does that mean fewer tickets were sold this outing than in the past? That's probably the case. As long as the production cost hasn't gone up significantly (and it hasn't), do the kind people at Sony (Screen Gems) care? Absolutely not. It's always a shell game with the focus entirely upon revenue attained. The fourth Resident Evil film has done better than the inflation-adjusted total of the original and the third film and effectively matched the second one. It also has earned the most money. Any time a later title in a franchise accomplishes such a feat, I am impressed.
George Clooney has been The American. Brad Pitt has starred in The Mexican. What's next? Damon in The Australian?
Kim Hollis: The American, the George Clooney film that moviegoers seem to despise, earned $5.7 million this weekend and has a ten-day total of $28.1 million. Should Focus be satisfied with this result given the D- Cinemascore?
Josh Spiegel: Absolutely. George Clooney is a movie star in a lot of ways, but he's not in the manner of opening movies big. If you take out the Ocean's franchise - which doesn't market itself solely on Clooney's presence - he's the exact opposite of a proven quantity at the box office. Considering the film's pedigree, the so-called European style of the filmmaking, the low budget, and the extremely low Cinemascore, Focus probably doesn't care if the film doesn't have legs.
Tim Briody: Clooney has not really been one to make films designed to hit it big at the box office, so The American has done decently enough. It was, for all intents and purposes buried on Labor Day weekend (still the one true dumping ground) so that it's going to crack $30 million is fine.
Brett Beach: Between Solaris and this, I think Clooney is the only person to appear in multiple D-rated movies in the past decade. More power to him for continuing to choose projects that don't require him to be likable or simply radiate his ample star wattage. And even though it's small bragging rights, this is his first number one anchored by him and him alone. Focus did what they needed to do to sell this film (showing all the action or implied action in the trailer and ads, from what I understand) and they should be happy with the result. I initially had no interest but the divided reviews have piqued my curiosity. This has my vote for oddest and most unexpected film to debut at the top since that Ashley Judd-Ewan McGregor "WTF is this?" Eye of the Beholder back in January 2000.
Matthew Huntley: First, @ Brett (et al), I saw The American and I think it's one of the better pictures of the year and you'd be wise to see it. I understand the D- score, but I don't agree with it.
Regarding its box office, I agree with the rest of the BOP staff that Focus' expectations for this movie were likely not very high (evidenced by its less-than-reputable release date), so while the studio may not be overly satisfied, but I would say they're content. It was not an expensive movie to make and its international numbers could double its overall box-office take, so it's safe to call it a mid-level hit.
David Mumpower: I echo Matthew and Brett's statements that George Cooney should be commended for making the movies he believes in rather than the ones that are transparently commercial. As someone who loves Solaris and Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (one of my favorites of this decade), I admire his choices and generally find his eclectic works to be stuff that will stand the test of time (see: Good Night, and Good Luck). The American is a strange production that confused me the instant it was slotted for Labor Day weekend release. All of us know that this period is one of those rare anti-holiday box office phenomenons. For this reason, I kept waiting for The American to either pushed up into August or dropped back into awards season condition. Once I realized that wasn't happening, I started to realize just how much Focus worried this was a bomb. Given that it's now earned back its budget and that marketing costs were intentionally kept low in anticipation of disaster, this becomes a tolerable result bordering on best case scenario.