Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
November 9, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Given that Megamind heavily pushed the presence of Will Ferrell and Brad Pitt in its advertisements, and that Due Date featured Robert Downey Jr. and the weird guy from The Hangover, do you see this weekend as a win, lose or draw for star power?
Josh Spiegel: Hey now, the weird guy from The Hangover is Zach Galifianakis and he's a really great comedian (the Between Two Ferns series never disappoints in its awkwardness). That said, I think this is somewhere between a draw and a win. If these movies - or at least Megamind - had opened closer to the holiday weekend, they might have made more money, but the two films, combined, opened to pretty huge numbers for this time of year, especially as we've been seeing movies open smaller and just taper off over the past few months. Could these movies have done better? Sure, but I don't think the ceiling was much higher.
Bruce Hall: I made mention in the last thread of the Post Star Era in Hollywood. I really think that while people do have their favorite stars, it is in a much more casual way now than it has ever been. Geeks like us may know everything under the sun about well respected performers like say, Zach Galifianakis and Eddie Izzard, but most people don't, and don't care. Most casual moviegoers just seem to want a positive overall experience, regardless of who is in the project.
If a film had great word of mouth and media exposure, it seems just as likely to make a mint as something just because Tom hanks is in it. I think stars still mean something to people but we're in a very media savvy time now, and even the least informed of us are able to tell which way the wind is blowing media wise on something, regardless of how many Names are in it.
I think this is a good thing. I have actors I love, but Hollywood is filled with countless thousands of talented and not-so-talented people. I just want to see a good movie, first and foremost. If someone I already happen to love is in it, then that's a good thing. But if I come away knocked out by great new talent then so much the better. There is room for far more exposure for far more true talent in this world, and I think that over time, audiences on every level are beginning to sense that.
Kim Hollis: I'm having a hard time seeing how Due Date's success can be attributed to anything other than Robert Downey Jr. and a tidal wave of nerds who find Zach G. to be funny. I'm less certain that Megamind needed big voices to deliver that level of box office, but I do think that Will Ferrell's massive support for the film certainly made it a film that seemed to target more than just kids and their parents.
Michael Lynderey: It's a big, big win for star power (and in fact, aren't holiday movies always traditionally more based around stars than their summertime compatriots?).
Robert Downey Jr. is emerging as that rare big movie star who can be successfully inserted into any genre - drama, comedy, action - you name it, he can get $100 million + out of it. That's remarkable, and it should be noted. Zach Galifianakis is recognizable enough that he lent Downey the comedy credentials that he maybe lacked. He'll get his own leading role sooner than later, and then we'll see if he can carry a film rather than just play live wire to the main stars. My guess is, he can.
After all, Will Ferrell started out as exactly that - the comic relief to Vince Vaughn and Luke Wilson in Old School - and parlayed it pretty well into a career that's fairly sure-footedly rebounded this year. I actually don't think Brad Pitt was all that much of a draw in Megamind - considering the movie's obvious comic bent, it was probably mostly Ferrell (not to mention Tina Fey) who boosted the film to the level of a Despicable Me or a Shrek - a CGI animation that plays somewhat like a traditional live-action star vehicle.
Yay! It's Madea! Wait. It's not Madea?
Kim Hollis: Tyler Perry's latest, For Colored Girls, opened to $19.5 million. How should Lionsgate feel about this result?
Josh Spiegel: Lionsgate, for the past few years, has been primarily in the business of Saw and Tyler Perry. Saw has eroded very sharply, but I think Lionsgate is still going to be content to be in the Tyler Perry business. There were a few pundits - not here, I believe, and that's a good thing - who thought that For Colored Girls, partly due to the impressive and much revered source material, was going to be an Oscar hopeful this year. I've not seen the film, but the reviews have only been slightly less toxic as they usually are. Though it would have clearly tarnished the material, you have to wonder how much more money this would have made if Madea was in it.
Bruce Hall: I have heard more immediately poor reviews for this film than any Tyler Perry project I can remember. I respect the man and admire him for his accomplishments but I am not a fan. I think that sometimes one's pioneering spirit and ability to fill a niche can trump true storytelling talent. I've made the comparison before but Lucas skated on it for years, and so has Tyler Perry. This is by no means a disaster, but it is somewhat less of an opening weekend cume than I am sure those concerned were expecting.
If you manage to come up with a simple, formulaic way of delivering something to people that they never knew they wanted, you deserve to be lauded for your achievement. But eventually, just like Taco Bell, people will begin to see that they're being fed the same things over and over again. The time will come when rather than staying within your comfort zone and resting on your past achievements, even your most devoted fans will insist that you try something new and challenging.
With Colored Girls, Perry's attempt to adapt someone else's material to his own message mostly strikes a sour note. And over time, his own oeuvre has become very stale and indistinguishable. This is the period in every hot young filmmaker's career where we all find out whether we're looking at a one trick pony or a truly great innovator. This is what we're about to find out about Tyler Perry over the next few years.
Tim Briody: Um, Bruce, you're calling this a critical moment in Tyler Perry's career? It made $20 million, it was budgeted at $21 million. This is right in his wheelhouse, excluding the Madea films. While always critically suspect, his films resonate with African-American audiences and whether he's adapting his own plays for the big screen, or other important African-American works, his audience will follow.
Tom Houseman: I think that if this film had gotten better reviews, it would end up having really solid legs. As it is, I still think it will still last longer than the rest of Perry's films, which are notorious for being very frontloaded. Considering the source material it is more likely to draw a wider demographic than would regularly turn out for a Perry film. I know that this will be the first Perry film I plan on seeing. So I think it will easily make money for Lionsgate, just like every other Perry film.
Reagen Sulewski: I can't wait for Tyler Perry's Laundry List, which will open to $23 million.
Michael Lynderey: The move from January to early November was pretty smart, especially since the next Perry concoction is out in April. The idea was obviously to make For Colored Girls into this year's Precious, a movie with the aroma of a potential awards contender, rather than another no-critics-allowed January film.
The funny thing is, having just said all that, I'm not entirely sure this strategy was even a box office plus. Perry films always kind of thrive on bucking the mainstream - film critics, awards season, prestige - and the game plan behind For Colored Girls really went against on all that. That might have cost it a few million here and there, but either way - and as always when this name "Tyler Perry" comes up - it's a win.