Black Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
November 27, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
The penultimate Harry Potter film earned $23 million on Friday, more than enough to hold on to the top spot. This is of course off 62.4% from last Friday (though it's only 38.1% if you remove the midnight sneak figure).
The last November-released Harry Potter movie, 2005's Goblet of Fire took in $22.7 million on its second Friday, which was off 43.2%, but does include whatever was earned at midnight showings. Its three-day weekend earnings were $54.7, a multiplier of 2.4. We can also see similar results if we go all the way back to 2001's Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, which had a 2.5 multiplier on its second weekend.
If we split the difference here, that's a weekend of $56.3 million (with $82.3 over five days), which should be enough to hold off a strong challenge from Tangled.
Tangled
With $19.7 million on Friday, Tangled does come a lot closer than many expected to knocking Deathly Hallows out of the top spot after just one weekend. It's also earned another $19.7 million since Wednesday, giving it $39.4 million in three days.
Strong animated offerings don't often open over the actual Thanksgiving holiday. In fact, there hasn't been one in the last ten years, so we're actually dealing with some uncharted territory. Looking at 2008's Bolt, which had its second weekend over Thanksgiving weekend, it earned a 2.4 multiplier. Despite being a new release, Tangled should behave similarly. Saturday should fall a little short of Friday (the day off for many gives extra time to see a movie) and Sunday should fall hard as people prepare to go back to work after a long weekend. Look for Tangled to have a three-day total of $47.8 million, with a solid $67.5 million over five days.
Burlesque
A surprising second among this weekend's new releases, Burlesque earned $4.5 million on Friday (and another $5.4 million over its first two days). I blame Glee. Look for a weekend of $11.2 million and $16.6 million in five days.
Love and Other Drugs
The [bp:1336_]Jake Gyllenhaal[/bp]/[bp:901_]Anne Hathaway[/bp] romantic comedy misfires with $3.8 million on Friday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. As a safety precaution, BOP reminds you that if your viewing experience lasts more than four hours, see your doctor. Love and Other Drugs should come in with $9.1 million for the weekend and $13.3 million in five days.
[tm:5021_]Faster[/tm]
The Rock's action movie is this biggest turkey over Thanksgiving, earning $3.2 million on Friday and $3.5 million over the first two days. Somewhere, John Cena is laughing at this performance. Give it $7.6 million in three days and $11.1 million over five.